Don’t overthink the favorites in 2023. But don’t discount a well-coached team like Creighton, either.
The Rhode Island Scumbag is our resident prognosticator who thoroughly cleaned up last year’s postseason basketball slate as a bettor. As such, he’s back to take us through both a select group of conference tournaments as well as the big dance itself. He chooses to remain anonymous (for now) for reasons unknown, though they may be related to the fact “Rhode Island Scumbag — 2021 to present” isn’t a particularly appealing resume item.
Our betting sherpa did not have a good time in Las Vegas. Or, rather, he had a very good time while getting his per-drink cost down to roughly $120. Was he simply living the high life? Limiting his boozing after a night of modest blackjack losses? Or suffering through an unpredictable stretch of conference tournaments?
I’ll let you decide, dear reader, but since last week’s game picks hit at a 25 percent success rate and both his futures shots failed, it all added up to an uncharacteristically unprofitable week for a guy whose college basketball picks have historically done work around these parts. Last year’s locks paid out +49 units across three weeks and he’s be privately prolific with his regular season bets, so we’re gonna venture into the breach once more and see what turns out.
And, wow, is it as mouthwatering as any of the dinners at Augusta. In a menu officially announced on Wednesday —nearly three weeks before the tournament begins — Scheffler decided to serve sliders, shrimp and steak (or fish) with warm chocolate chip cookies for dessert.
But even that description undersells things a bit.
The first — and maybe only — question here for Scheffler is just what it means exactly to serve sliders “Scottie” style. Other than that it’s hard to find any errors on this course listing.
Firecracker shrimp? Yum.
Tortilla soup? Sold.
Texas Ribeye with mac and cheese, creamed corn, fried brussels sprouts and fries? Everyone at this dinner is going to need a good, long nap afterwards in the best way possible.
It sounds like the type of meal you have at a cookout on Masters Sunday while watching the best golfers in the world sprint to the finish line.
The delicious tradition (one of roughly five billion at Augusta) for a Masters champions-only dinner goes back to Ben Hogan in 1952 and seems to get better each year. Hopefully the play on the course is as good as the meal served in honor of the winner before everyone tees off.
Scheffler is looking to become the first Masters champion to repeat since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002. He would become the 18th different player to win multiple green jackets if he’s able to pull it off, joining a club who last saw Bubba Watson welcomed into the ranks with his second title in 2014.
After reclaiming the title of No. 1 golfer in the world with an impressive win at the Players Championship, there’s no reason to believe Scheffler won’t remain a massive favorite to repeat when he returns to Augusta.
“I don’t enjoy what the NBA as a whole is becoming.”
Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter where we’ll prep you for the tip-off of tonight’s action, from what to watch to bets to make. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every afternoon.
There’s no denying championships are an integral part of how we evaluate a player’s career.
Especially in the NBA, where one player carries so much value relative to a single player in other leagues, rings are and should be a factor in how we discuss the game and its greatest players.
However, the weight we place on rings — whether a player has one and how many — seems to be tilting further and further in a direction that isn’t conducive to smart basketball conversations. It’s created the environment we now know as “ring culture,” and Damian Lillard is over it.
“While I understand we play to win championships — we all want to win a championship — we can’t keep acting like the journey doesn’t matter. We can’t keep doing that,” Lillard said on JJ Redick’s podcast, The Old Man & The Three. “There are so many ways that the league is different. And I think about it all the time where I’m like, man, I don’t know if I can play a long, long time because I don’t enjoy what the NBA as a whole is becoming.”
We can’t keep acting like the journey doesn’t matter. That’s a bar.
Lillard added that he’s been able to stay true to himself and his desire to win in Portland because he has a “real life” away from the game. It seems he’s able to unplug and not drown in conversations that, I agree, make the game a little less fun.
I can’t pinpoint when it started — though I’m sure debate TV and social media only enhanced it — but the emphasis on rings watered down NBA talk. The pursuit of the great Michael Jordan’s six rings in six tries by players like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James likely kicked it off, but our sole focus on those pursuits have left us underappreciating anyone who falls short — which is everyone.
So instead of talking about how incredible LBJ and Kevin Durant have been all these years, we talk ad nauseum about James’ 4-6 record in the finals or Durant joining the Warriors.
As someone who puts up mind-blowing stats but has never sniffed a finals, Lillard hears it all. But if Lillard were to ever fold under the faux pressure of needing a championship to validate his greatness and leave Portland to team with other stars — like James or Durant did — he’d be chastised for that too.
Now, it seems, he’d rather just leave the game completely than be discredited for wanting to stay with the team that drafted him and enjoying the journey of trying to figure it out in one place. That’s a shame, and I hope “ring culture” falls before players who think like Lillard stop existing.
The Tip-Off
Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
March Madness is upon us. The NCAA men’s First Four games tipped off Tuesday night and continue Wednesday before we get into the field of 64.
Soon enough, we’ll have a champion, but not before we see some incredible buzzer-beaters, Cinderella runs and monster individual performances. Some of those players are headed for the NBA soon, so my colleague Bryan Kalbrosky put together a bracket based solely on which prospects we want to see as much as possible.
One key takeaway here: Arkansas needs to go all the way.
“Arkansas is the No. 8 seed in the West and they have a tough first-round opponent with Illinois. But they also have two likely lottery picks, Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black, and two other potential first-rounders with Ricky Council IV and Jordan Walsh. Let me see them play as many games as possible!”
I don’t get to keep up with college hoops as much, so I’ll definitely be glued to these teams.
Kings (-1.5, -115) at Bulls (-105), O/U 235.5, 8 PM ET
The Kings have the third-best record in the Western Conference and are only slight favorites over the Bulls, who are 11th in the East. Sure, the Kings are on the road in this one, but the odds here seem a bit disrespectful to a legit good team coming off a loss in its last game. Give me Sacramento to cover 1.5 points.
Mattress Mack is ready to fill up some more wheelbarrows with cash
It wouldn’t be a major sporting event without Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale dropping massive amounts of money on a bet and offering up just as ridiculous a sale at his regional furniture stores.
The 2023 Final Four is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.
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But about those wagers. Early in the season Mack put down $1.05 million on Houston (+850) at FanDuel Sportsbook, added another $1 million on Houston (+900) at DraftKings and dropped $1 million on Houston (+800) at Caesars Sports. As the tournament drew closer, Mack dropped another $500,000 each on Houston at BetMGM (+1000) and Barstool Sportsbook (+900).
That’s a $4.05 million wager for an astounding $39.475 million payout including his stake. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mack adds a little more onto his bet if Houston advances to the Final Four, either.
After skipping out on a Super Bowl bet this year, he’s likely got plenty of cash remaining from the $75 million payout he earned on the Houston Astros’ 2022 World Series title. Those winnings don’t go right into his pocket, however. He has to pay out customers who took advantage of his gambit.
This time around anyone who spends more than $5,000 on purchases in his stores gets their money back if Houston wins the NCAA tournament. With the Final Four in Space City, surely some visiting fans will consider heading over to his stores to make some big purchases if Houston reaches the title game.
Of course, that’s the whole point of this thing, isn’t it? Big sales, big bets, big profits. Anyway you look at it, Mack tends to come out a winner.
DraftKings likes the Jackrabbits and Blue Raiders to advance.
Women’s college basketball fans had a handful of complaints targeted toward the Selection Committee on Sunday — like North Carolina getting a No. 6 seed instead of a No. 4 — but, for the most part, oddsmakers don’t have a big problem with how the matchups shook out.
Aside from five games, the higher seed is favored over the lower one in the opening round of games.
But there are those five. And while upsets don’t happen in the women’s NCAA tournament as often as the men’s, they do happen. You remember Harvard over Stanford, right? And Creighton’s run to the Elite Eight last year?
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Let’s dive into the five first-round upsets oddsmakers think will happen. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, and most of the stats referenced here can be found on HerHoopStats.
Between 1-seed Kansas and 2-seed UCLA, it’ll be hard to resist going chalk up to the regional final.
But while the other teams in this region may be a step below the top seeds, they’re mostly all in the same relative ballpark as each other. I sorted through the madness to find some good bets throughout the region.
Can Caitlin Clark provide the recipe for beating South Carolina?
It’s mid-March, which means it’s time to break out the sharpies, fill out some brackets, and maybe even make some bets.
Some of us watch a ton of college basketball all season long and have a pretty good feel for how the tournament might play out. Others cram in 20 minutes worth of research fill in our picks off that. And then some of us pick winners based on who has the best mascot.
I suppose folks would classify me in that first category: I’m an AP Top 25 voter for women’s college basketball and have been covering the sport all season long at For The Win and for a few other news organizations. Am I an expert? Probably not. Is my bracket wrong? Probably. But we’re going to have some fun and break it down anyways.
Here are my picks, and please forgive my sloppy handwriting and printer that is in-need of a tune-up.
Mitchell Northam’s 2023 women’s basketball bracket prediction which is absolutely totally awesome and correct.
A few explanations:
I’m taking Creighton to advance to the Sweet 16 out of Notre Dame’s sub-regional because — despite no official word from the Irish — I don’t believe Olivia Miles will play in the NCAA Tournament, and if she does, I don’t think she’ll be 100 percent healthy. While on the bench at the ACC tournament, Miles didn’t look like someone who could jog, much less sprint while dribbling a basketball. I would love to see her play in the tournament, but I’ll be pretty surprised if she does. Even if Miles does play, Creighton shouldn’t be overlooked. The Bluejays are 11th in the nation in offensive rating (111.5), 12th in effective field goal percentage (52.8) and 10th in points per play (0.93).
For one of my big first-round upsets, I’m taking East Carolina over Texas. The Longhorns turn the ball over 15.2 times per game, which ranks a mediocre 144th in the nation. East Carolina is built on its defense this year, ranking third in points allowed per play (0.65), 11th in 3-point shooting defense (25.8 percent) and third in turnovers forced per game (24.2). The Pirates have what it takes to rattle Texas on its home floor.
In Duke’s sub-regional, I’m predicting total chaos. I don’t think my MTSU over Colorado pick will be uncommon. The Blue Raiders have a balanced attack, ranking in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rating. MTSU has also beaten two fellow tournament teams this season, including Louisville. The more farfetched upset prediction is Iona over host Duke. But here’s the thing: The Gaels can shoot the lights out of the basketball, ranking second in the nation in 3-point shooting (40.1 percent). Duke has a great defense, but the Blue Devils have struggled to overcome early deficits (see also: their last two games against Virginia Tech). If Iona connects early and often, it could make Duke’s tournament stay a short one.
N.C. State is a No. 7 seed, but I think the Wolfpack have the potential to advance to the Elite Eight if Diamond Johnson is healthy. Remember: This is an N.C. State team that beat Iowa in Ames earlier this season. The Wolfpack have also beaten tournament-bound teams in West Virginia, Georgia, South Florida, Miami, Louisville, Notre Dame and North Carolina. Wolfpack coach Wes Moore is a veteran of this tournament, having taken his teams to the Big Dance 15 times. While LSU is armed with a superstar in Angel Reese, the Tigers — with their 75th-ranked strength of schedule — never faced a team matching the caliber of N.C. State in non-conference play.
My Villanova to the Final Four pick is simply based on Maddy Siegrist catching fire. Indiana couldn’t stop Caitlin Clark. Can they contain the nation’s leading scorer at 28.9 points per game?
I think North Carolina is under-seeded at No. 6. A lot of folks thought the Tar Heels had the resume of a top-16 seed. Instead, Courtney Banghart’s side is off to Columbus, Ohio where they could cause a lot of problems for the Buckeyes in a potential second-round matchup.
Virginia Tech is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 straight games. I think they’ll keep that rolling to the national championship game. No one in the ACC — which has the most teams in the tournament with eight — had an answer for the combination of Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore, and I’m skeptical that even mighty UConn will be able to stifle the duo.
Caitlin Clark looks like the most dynamic player in the country. She just powered her team to a Big Ten tournament championship and will likely be voted National Player of the Year. She’s averaging 27 points, 8.3 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game. She leads the nation in 3-pointers made, knocking down 3.4 per game. While South Carolina is undefeated this year, they haven’t faced a perimeter scorer with Clark’s skills. There’s no player in the SEC that really compares to Clark, the UConn team South Carolina beat didn’t have Azzi Fudd, the Maryland team that lost to the Gamecocks didn’t have Diamond Miller, and while UCLA and Stanford are great teams, they simply aren’t armed with the same threat that Clark presents. She could give South Carolina headaches.
We’re talking about 1-seed Purdue, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 5 Duke, No. 6 Kentucky and a few more squads that could make deep tournament runs.
There aren’t many locks when it comes to a region like this, but I sorted through the mess to find the best bets of the best.
THE BRACKETS ARE BACK! The USA TODAY Sports Bracket Challenge is back! $1 MILLION grand prize for a perfect bracket, $25,000 prize for top bracket. Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!
One of our writers picks his bracket based on 20 minutes of research.
Hi, my name is Charles Curtis and I am NOT a college basketball fan.
That is, until March. Then? Like the rest of you, I kick my feet up on my couch with my laptop and watch wall to wall hoops in the first week of men’s March Madness.
And, like you, I invest in filling out a bracket for a pool. Well, actually, it’s more like I fill out a dozen or so brackets for multiple pools. Have I won? I think I came in the top-five … twice in my life.
But here’s the thing that you already know: You don’t need to be a college hoops expert to win a bracket pool!
1. I heard Purdue has a really good big man in Zach Edey. But I do know that sometimes it’s the shooters who win tourney games at the line and beyond the arc. Hence why they lose at some point in the East.
2. Pardon the (Not TCU) pick, but I’m writing this before the play-in games. And I’m picking whoever wins the 11-seed game between Arizona State and Nevada, because one play-in team always wins again.
3. I love Shaka Smart. I would like to see Marquette go far. Biased? Maybe.
4. Is it chalky? Yes. But I have Drake winning twice for what it’s worth.
Good luck!
THE BRACKETS ARE BACK! The USA TODAY Sports Bracket Challenge is back! $1 MILLION grand prize for a perfect bracket, $25,000 prize for top bracket. Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!
Jokic is still the frontrunner, but Joel Embiid is closing the gap.
Nikola Jokic is the betting favorite to win his third-straight MVP award this season, with -200 odds at BetMGM. But if you ask ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, smart money is on the player with the next best odds.
“I know Vegas is saying something different. I don’t want to hear anything about Jokic being the frontrunner for the MVP right now, the way Denver has tailed off,” Smith said Monday on ESPN’s First Take. “Joel Embiid … that man has got to be right up there, if not No. 1.”
"I don't want to hear anything about Jokić being a front-runner for the MVP right now. … [Joel Embiid] has got to be right up there if not number one."
Smith gives Embiid the edge due to a recent rough patch for the Denver Nuggets, who have lost three straight games, including two to teams with losing records.
However, even with the skid, Denver still holds first place in the Western Conference and has one more win than the Philadelphia 76ers. Jokic is also averaging 30 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists during the losing streak.
Still, there’s no denying Embiid has closed whatever gap existed. During a five-game winning streak for the Sixers, he’s averaging 37 points, six rebounds, five assists, two blocks and a steal.
Embiid also leads the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game, while averaging 10 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.6 blocks and also being a defensive force in the paint. Jokic averages a triple-double at 24.7 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists.
There isn’t really a wrong choice here. But the MVP does seem to be boiling down to these two with less than a month left in the season.
