It was a successful Week 4 on the MAC card, cashing in 3 of the 4 plays last weekend. The only game that didn’t hit was Eastern Michigan, which not only didn’t cover but lost outright at home by 19 points to Buffalo. Hey, you can’t win them all. Let’s keep it cooking heading into Week 5.
Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the MAC’s Week 5 slate, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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MAC best bets for Week 5
– All games listed are Saturday and ET unless noted
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
Northern Illinois (-3.5, -108) at Ball State – 2 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Huskies played Kentucky tough in Lexington last week, easily covering a 27.5-point number against a top-10 team. NIU outgained Kentucky on the ground, registering 128 yards, and it might have won outright if not for 6 penalties and if it had starting QB Rocky Lombardi.
Lombardi suffered an undisclosed leg injury against Vanderbilt, and he was forced to miss the Kentucky game. Backup QB Ethan Hampton did a tremendous job in his stead, passing for 196 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers, showing off depth for the Huskies.
Ball State was trucked at Georgia Southern last week, falling 34-23 in Statesboro. It won its most recent game at Scheumann Stadium against FCS Murray State — its only win of the season. However, it also was dropped at home by Western Michigan by a 37-30 score, failing to cover.
NIU heads into this meeting 9-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings between these sides, including 6-0 ATS in the past 6 trips to Muncie. Expect Northern Illinois to run the ball well against Ball State, adding to the woes of the Cardinals. Toss in the Under 59.5 (-115) for an added bonus parlay. The Under is 5-0 in the previous 5 meetings at Scheumann.
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Miami-Ohio at Buffalo (-1.5, -108) – 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Bulls of UB took out a lot of frustration last week on the gray turf at Rynearson Stadium in Eastern Michigan. The Bulls rolled up 201 yards on the ground and added 297 yards through the air while playing rather disciplined football resulting in just 3 penalties for 15 yards.
Miami is, technically, coming off a win over a Power 5 team on the road last week, topping Northwestern 17-14. However, the Wildcats are terrible this season, and the RedHawks were housed 38-17 by Cincinnati in their previous game.
Buffalo is looking to exact a little revenge after a 45-18 whipping from Miami in Oxford last season. The Bulls have won each of the previous 2 meetings at UB Stadium, including a 42-10 shellacking of the RedHawks on Nov. 10, 2020. Buffalo is averaging 46.5 PPG in the previous 2 home games vs. Miami.
Side with the trends here, too. Miami is 2-6-1 ATS in the last 9 trips to Buffalo, while the favorite is 11-2-1 ATS in the previous 14 in this series, and the home side is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Bowling Green (-9.5, -112) at Akron – 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Falcons have dropped 3 of their first 4 games this season, but 2 of those losses came in payday games at UCLA and Mississippi State. It lost an epic 7-overtime game to FCS Eastern Kentucky, and upended Marshall in OT at Doyt Perry, as the Herd were coming off an impressive win at Notre Dame.
Bowling Green is the better team in this matchup. The pass game is effective, going for 220.0 yards per game through the air, and the offense is averaging a robust 30.5 PPG. Defensively, BGSU has its share of problems, but the ugly numbers are skewed a bit considering it played against 2 Power 5 teams.
Akron is a train wreck on both sides of the football. It barely scraped by St. Francis (PA) — an FCS foe — in the opener. It was manhandled against Michigan State and Tennessee, getting outscored 115-6 in those 2 matchups. The Zips did put up a fight last week against Liberty, falling just 21-12, but it is still just 1-3 ATS overall.
The Falcons are looking for a little payback after falling 35-20 on its home turf last season against the Zips. Bowling Green leads the all-time series 18-10, and has won 10 of the past 13 overall. Look for the Falcons to grab the double-digit win at InfoCision Saturday.
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Central Michigan at Toledo (-6.5, -122) – 3:30 p.m. (NFL Network)
The Chips head to Toledo to take on the Rockets, and the public is all over Central Michigan catching the points at nearly a 2-to-1 clip. Not sure what the public likes about the Chips, but I’ll take the Rockets here.
First off, Toledo is 6-1 ATS in the past 7 meetings at home against Central, while going 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings overall in this series. The favorite is also 11-2 ATS in the previous 13 meetings, so the trends point decisively to the home side.
Yes, CMU is 7-1-1 ATS in the past 9 games, and perhaps bettors can’t shake the fact Ohio State hung a 77 on Toledo just 2 weeks ago. But the Rockets were competitive last week in a 17-14 defensive battle loss at San Diego State.
Central Michigan is 0-3 SU against FBS teams this season, although it did cover against 2 Power 5 teams, Oklahoma State and Penn State. But this Chips team also was smashed 38-24 at Kelly/Shorts by South Alabama of the Sun Belt, failing to win as a 6-point favorite. The Rockets are the better side, and will prove it Saturday afternoon.
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