The Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) face the Miami Dolphins (3-11) in a game someone has to win but likely few will watch when they meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
Cincinnati at Miami: Week 16 preview, betting trends and notes
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- Miami has had a ratty record, but the Dolphins are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games after starting off the season 0-4.
- Miami is 7-1 against the moneyline in its last eight games as a home favorite.
- Nobody has scored fewer points this season than Bengals’ 211 points – an average of just 15 a game.
- Miami has hit the over in four of its last five games.
- Cincinnati is 0-7 against the moneyline on the road this season, but 4-3 ATS.
- Last week, the two teams allowed a combined 70 points in losses – 34 by the Bengals and 36 by the Dolphins.
Cincinnati at Miami: Key injuries
Three Bengals haven’t practiced yet this week – the usual suspect A.J. Green (ankle), who has been on the active roster for all 15 games; G John Miller (concussion); and CB Darius Phillips (illness). RB Joe Mixon was added to the injury report Thursday with a calf injury, but did practice. No Dolphins missed practice Thursday and only three – WR Allen Hurns (ankle/knee), DT Zach Sieler (ankle) and K Jason Sanders (illness) – were limited.
Cincinnati at Miami: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines as of Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Miami 31, Cincinnati 24
Moneyline (?)
This is a bet correction for action coming in to force a pick-’em scenario. You almost never see an NFL moneyline at -110 for both teams. Nobody who thinks Miami will win will take that bet when they can get even money on the point line. If you think the Bengals are going to win, the price of getting 1.5 isn’t worth it – unless you somehow think the game could go to overtime and end in a tie.
Against the Spread (?)
The same rule of thumb applies. If you’re going to give away 1.5 points (Miami), you’re at even money (100). Get 1.5 (Cincy) and your price goes to -121 from -110. The only people who should be on this are those backing Miami.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Dolphins to win outright would return a profit of $9.09, while the same wager on the Dolphins to win by more than 1 point would return $10. A $10 wager on the Bengals to win outright would return $9.09, while the same wager on them to win or lose by 1 point would return $8.26.
Over/Under (?)
This is the most intriguing bet of them all. These teams have won four games out of 28 played because they both have iffy offenses and bad defenses. But when a veteran QB gets up against a bad defense, shootouts can take place. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton have nothing left to lose. Let the ball fly! The bet is the under (-121), but we’re taking OVER 46.5 (100) and running with it.
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