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Baylor at Iowa State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Baylor at Iowa State odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baylor Bears (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) visit the Iowa State Cyclones (4-0, 1-0) Saturday. Kick from Jack Trice Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Baylor vs. Iowa State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Baylor has lost back-to-back games after falling 34-28 against BYU last week and failing to cover as a 3-point home favorite. QB Sawyer Robertson went 27-of-48 for 324 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions with his top receiver, WR Josh Cameron, hauling in 7 receptions for 125 yards and 2 TDs.

Iowa State enters Saturday undefeated after taking down Houston 20-0 and covering as a 16-point road favorite. QB Rocco Becht went 17-of-28 for 153 yards and a TD while RB Abu Sama III carried the ball 11 times for 101 yards and a TD.

Iowa State is No. 16 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.

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Baylor at Iowa State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Baylor +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Iowa State -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Baylor +11.5 (-110) | Iowa State -11.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Baylor at Iowa State picks and predictions

Prediction

Iowa State 31, Baylor 17

Moneyline

PASS.

There is no value on Iowa State (-450), who is undefeated and playing at home.

Against the spread

BET IOWA STATE -11.5 (-110).

Iowa State has allowed 7 points or fewer in 3 of its 4 games this season and has covered the spread in each of its last 3 weeks. Its defense will play a key factor in not only winning but covering as Baylor has demonstrated an ability to score the ball this season.

Over/Under

BET OVER 44.5 (-115).

Iowa State has hit the Over in 2 of its last 3 weeks while scoring at least 20 points in each game this season. Baylor has hit the Over in back-to-back weeks while scoring 28 or more points in 4 of its 5 games. With the Cyclones’ strong defense, their offense will need to carry a majority of the load, which is possible with a lower-than-usual total.

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Baylor at Iowa State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Baylor at Iowa State odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baylor Bears (2-1) will travel to Jack Trice Stadium to take on the Iowa State Cyclones (3-0). Kickoff is set for noon ET Saturday (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Baylor vs. Iowa State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Despite a tough road loss to BYU in its 2nd game, the Bears have stayed ranked. It is coming off a 42-7 win over Texas State after opening the season with a 69-10 win over Albany.

Baylor is led by 6-foot redshirt sophomore QB Blake Shapen. It has a plethora of running backs helping lead the backfield with 3 players totaling at least 100 rushing yards through 3 games.

As for Iowa State, its premier win is over rival Iowa. That was a grind-it-out win for the Cyclones as they came out on top 10-7. It beat Ohio 43-10 and Southeast Missouri State 42-10.

Iowa State’s backfield is led by RB Jirehl Brock who has 280 yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average. QB Hunter Dekkers took over as the starter this season and has 8 TDs and 3 INTs.

Baylor is No. 17 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

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Baylor at Iowa State odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:43 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Baylor +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Iowa State -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Baylor +2.5 (-108) | Iowa State -2.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Baylor at Iowa State picks and predictions

Prediction

Baylor 24, Iowa State 20

Money line

SPRINKLE BAYLOR +120.

The Bears lost to BYU, but it was a game they had a shot in and arguably should’ve won. On top of that, it was a late game in an environment which could’ve had elevation impacts on Baylor.

While there shouldn’t be any excuses, the reasons for that loss won’t be present here and that helps create value on the money line. Aside from that loss, Baylor has outscored opponents by 94 points in 2 games.

Iowa State has had similar success again non-Power 5 sides, but it put up just 10 points on Iowa. It had under 200 passing yards, and while it did find success on the ground, Brock has just a 3.7 yards per carry average on 27 attempts. It didn’t showcase much success against the Hawkeyes.

Both teams are 2-1 ATS this season.

Against the spread

BET BAYLOR +2.5 (-108).

Baylor was 5-1 ATS last season an underdog while Iowa State was 5-6 ATS as a favorite. While things have changed since a season ago, many of those key players for both sides remain.

The Cyclones do not have a player that’s as dynamic of BYU QB Jaren Hall. There’s no reason the Bears’ defense shouldn’t have far more success in this battle as they’ve kept opponents under 30 points in each of their 3 games.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 45.5 (-108).

Considering Iowa State’s lacking offense against a Power 5 side and Baylor not throwing for more than 200 yards through the air against BYU, it seems likely both sides will power their attack using more running plays. That should drain the clock.

WR Xavier Hutchinson is the only player for either side to have over 35 receiving yards against a Power 5 opponent in the Cyclones’ match against the Hawkeyes.

The aerial attacks aren’t the effective part of both teams’ offenses. This will be a run-heavy game and that should aid the under here.

Both teams are 1-2 O/U so far this season.

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Baylor at Iowa State odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks, tips and predictions.

The Baylor Bears (1-3 overall, 1-3 Big 12) travel to Ames, Iowa for a Saturday night Big 12 affair against the Iowa State Cyclones (4-2, 4-1). Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET. We analyze the Baylor-Iowa State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Baylor at Iowa State: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Baylor +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Iowa State -625 (bet $625 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Baylor +13.5 (-110) | Iowa State -13.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Baylor at Iowa State: Three things to know

  1. Iowa State RB Breece Hall ranks No. 2 in FBS with 901 rushing yards (150.2 per game). Hall has bolted for 11 rushing touchdowns, and he leads an ISU ground game that has outgained all six opponents on the ground this fall.
  2. Baylor took a 20-0 lead in last year’s home game against ISU. The Bears hung on to defeat the Cyclones 23-21 in a game that was nearly even on the yardage front (BU 411, ISU 405). That victory was part of a season-opening nine-game winning streak.
  3. Under new head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor has thus far flipped the script on committing turnovers. A year ago, the Bears ranked 68th in the nation with 19 giveaways. This season, BU has committed just three turnovers in four games. That possession protection is all the more impressive with two of Baylor’s foes (Texas, West Virginia) ranked 10th and 28th, respectively, in takeaways.

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Baylor at Iowa State: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks

Prediction

Iowa State 31, Baylor 20

Money line (ML)

STEER CLEAR of the juice-filled straight-up prices. As with the analysis below, there’s a lot of gray area in laying this one out.

Against the spread (ATS)

Baylor is 1-3-1 ATS since last year’s bowl game, and the one push came on a garbage-time, short-field score against Texas. This year’s games against Texas (Oct. 24) and West Virginia (Oct. 3) seem to bode well for a play on the Bears in this one, but BU was a combined plus-5 in turnovers over those two games. Neither one of those foes is a top-50 team running the ball; Iowa State’s 5.8 yards per carry average ranks eighth in the nation.

Still, there are analytics pointing to a margin closer to one score than two. Then there is ISU’s recent performance log when playing as a home favorite: The Cyclones are 5-9 ATS over their last 14 such games. The cross signals are enough to make for a PASS. Better value can be found on the high side of a low total.

Over/Under (O/U)

Saturday’s weather in Ames might get a bit breezy, but it’s an otherwise solid forecast favoring the offenses. Don’t expect a textbook Big-12 shootout, but this game draws a total a few points too low. TAKE THE OVER 47.5 (-110).

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