A Sweet 16 matchup features the No. 1 seed Baylor Bears (22-2) playing as 6.5-point favorites against the No. 5 seed Villanova Wildcats (16-6) on Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The NCAA Tournament matchup starts at 5:15 PM ET, with the winner moving on to the South Region bracket final.
On Sunday, the Bears faced Wisconsin and emerged victorious, 76-63. The Bears were favored by 6.5 points and covered the spread while the teams combined to go over the 136.5 point total.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl led the way for the Wildcats with a team-high 18 points last time out as they picked up a 84-61 win over North Texas and covered the 6-point spread as favorites. The teams combined to go over the 126 point total set for the matchup.
Villanova at Baylor: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.
Lines last updated at 1:25 PM ET on March 27, 2021.
- Money line: Villanova +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Baylor -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Villanova +7.5 (-110) | Baylor -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Baylor: Three things to know
- Jared Butler leads the Bears scoring 16.9 points per game. Butler leads the squad with a team-high 2.5 made three-pointers per game.
- The 83.8 points per game the Bears record are 17.1 more points than the Wildcats give up (66.7).
- When Baylor puts up more than 66.7 points, it is 24-1 overall and 14-0-1 against the spread.
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Villanova: Three things to know
- Robinson-Earl leads the Wildcats in scoring (16.0 points per game) and rebounding (8.3 rebounds per game). Collin Gillespie leads the squad with a team-high 2.1 made three-pointers per game.
- The Wildcats’ 75.8 points per game are 10 more points than the 65.8 the Bears give up to opponents.
- Villanova has compiled an 18-3 overall record and a 14-0 ATS record in games where it scores more than 65.8 points.
Villanova at Baylor: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 75, Villanova 71
Money line
The Baylor Bears are favored to win this matchup according to both BetMGM and the model.
Against the spread (ATS)
The spread for this game suggested by the model (4.2 points) is slightly less than the 7.5-point edge MGM gives to the Bears, though the data still has them as the favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
In this matchup, the model projects a total (146.1 points) significantly higher than the MGM over/under (141.5 points). Bet on the over.
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