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The Baltimore Orioles (88-51) continue their trek toward the top seed in the American League as they open a 3-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox (72-68) Friday. First pitch from Fenway Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 3-3
The Orioles are red-hot and threatening to run away in the AL East race. They have won 5 games in a row and 14 of their last 18 contests, and their 46-25 road record is 2nd best in the league behind the Atlanta Braves (46-24).
The Red Sox just finished a 3-3 road trip against the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays. Boston lost its last 2 games vs. the Rays but now returns home where it is 36-33 on the season.
Orioles at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Bradish (10-6, 3.03 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 139 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 7-3 road victory at Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.60 ERA (80 IP, 32 ER) with 9.5 K/9 in 15 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-4, 9.36 ERA (25 IP, 26 ER) with a 17/12 K/BB in 6 starts
- 2023 vs. Red Sox: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 1 K in 8-6 home loss on April 25 in his worst start of the season
Houck (4-8, 5.07 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 81 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 9-5 victory at Royals Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 2-3, 5.40 ERA (40 IP, 24 ER), with 9.0 K/9 across 8 starts
- Career vs. Orioles: 3-2, 3.28 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 9 ER) through 3 starts and 4 relief appearances
- 2023 vs. Orioles: 1-1, 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER) across 2 starts in April
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Orioles at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Orioles -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Red Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+125) | Red Sox +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 6, Red Sox 5
Moneyline
Bradish has had an excellent season and has taken his skills up a notch lately, registering a 2.25 ERA (24 IP, 6 ER) while whiffing 31% of opposing batters over his last 4 starts. He’s had some struggles against Boston, with 3 blowups in 6 career starts, but the sample is too small to be overly concerned. Both Bradish and his team have been rolling and have shown no signs of slowing down so back the ORIOLES (-125).
Run line/Against the spread
Houck has been a little shaky in 3 starts since coming off the IL (14 IP, 8 ER, 6 BB, 11 K), but he faced the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers in 2 of those, and he has displayed strong skills throughout most of the season. He’ll have his hands full against a Baltimore team that is firing on all cylinders, but this sets up to be a pretty tight game.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Baltimore offense has been hot, with 5-plus runs in 8 of their last 9 games and 12 of their last 14. They rank 5th in runs per game on the road this season (5.39), while the Red Sox are 5th in runs per game at home (5.25). Look for this game to just sneak past OVER 10 (-115).
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