The Baltimore Orioles (32-17) and New York Yankees (30-21) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: New York leads 3-2
Baltimore earned a 9-6 come-from-behind victory Wednesday. The Orioles have scored 5-plus runs in each of their last 6 games since breaking out of a mid-May mini-slump.
The Yankees are still 8-3 over their last 11 home games despite Wednesday’s setback. New York has banged out an .873 OPS in the Bronx over that stretch.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Orioles at Yankees projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start. He has logged a 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 59 IP.
- Current New York batters own an aggregate .901 OPS against him
- Swinging strikes and ground balls are down from previously established career norms
Schmidt (2-4, 6.00 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 45 IP.
- Has held opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts
- Has scuffled against lefty bats (.937 OPS allowed), and Baltimore bats a higher-than-average percentage from that side against right-handers
- Has been hurt by a .386 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)
Orioles at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Orioles +112 (bet $100 to win $112) | Yankees -132 (bet $132 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-172) | Yankees -1.5 (+142)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!
Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Orioles 4
Moneyline
Peg the Orioles’ won-loss record as being a few games too rich. Baltimore is a fade candidate in games where the opponent is likable or Baltimore is fade-able in the pitching match-up.
Schmidt’s line desreves better. The Yankee righty has been hurt by the high overall BABIP, a low 62.7% left-on-base rate and a high 15.7% home runs/fly balls figure.
There is a risk because Schmidt does not have a long track record of sub-4.00 ERA pitching — especially as a starter — but with the Baltimore bullpen likely overrated and the Yankees offense coming around of late, the price on the home nine does offer some value here.
BACK THE YANKEES (-132).
Run line/Against the spread
Respecting Gibson’s ability to get deep enough in games here, and the possibility Schmidt falters against the Baltimore bats swinging from the left side. PASS.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
The Over 8.5 was a solid play Wednesday, and there is some overall lean toward more run-scoring in this series.
However, Schmidt’s prognosis and an inward breeze in the weather forecast — and a higher hurdle in this game — make for conflicting inputs.
PASS.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]