Tag: average age

When will Father Time catch up to the Saints?

When will Father Time catch up to the Saints? They have the league’s oldest roster, but that factor is kind of overblown:

Is age just a number in the NFL? The New Orleans Saints currently have the oldest team in the league, but not by much — Spotrac research found their roster has an average age of 27.24 years. That number is the league’s highest, but only by a difference of about 10 months from the league average (26.38 years). It’s kind of an overblown issue even if it’s become a popular criticism of the team, relying on high-profile defenders over 30 like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu.

But there has been little to no correlation between team success and average player age. The Saints had the NFL’s third-oldest team last season (27.17) after ranking 24th in 2021 (26.69) and 31st in 2020 (27.0). They’ve consistently ranked among the oldest teams in the NFL throughout most of the last decade. Look at the numbers with some help from the Philly Voice’s Jimmy Kempski:

  • 2023: 27.2 (32nd), 4-4 (and counting)
  • 2022: 27.2 (30th), 7-10
  • 2021: 26.7 (24th), 9-8
  • 2020: 27.0 (30th), 12-4
  • 2019: 26.2 (21st), 13-3
  • 2018: 26.3 (24th), 13-3
  • 2017: 26.5 (28th), 11-5
  • 2016: 26.4 (26th), 7-9
  • 2015: 26.7 (29th), 7-9

And, again, the difference between the oldest roster in the NFL and the league average is about 10 months. We’re really splitting hairs here. To illustrate the point further, there are just seven teams around the league with an average age under 26, and only two of them (the 5-2 Detroit Lions and 4-3 Cincinnati Bengals) are over .500. The other five squads all have losing records. Having a young team doesn’t guarantee success.

Obviously you’d like to have more younger players in prominent roles. That means you’re drafting and developing talent well, and the rookie wage scale gives teams a competitive advantage for hitting on draft picks, especially at quarterback. But it’s not like the Saints’ entire roster is about to age out of the NFL. Look at their players who are 30 and over and their snap counts at the season’s midpoint on offense, defense or special teams:

  • Jimmy Graham (36): 137 (23.7%)
  • Cameron Jordan (34): 431 (83.4%)
  • Demario Davis (34): 495 (95.7%)
  • Taysom Hill (33): 249 (43.1%)
  • Derek Carr (32): 498 (86.2%, missed time with injury)
  • Tyrann Mathieu (31): 509 (98.5%)
  • James Hurst (31): 351 (60.7%, missed time with injury)
  • Max Garcia (31): 269 (46.5%)
  • Zach Wood (30): 77 (33.6%)
  • Michael Thomas (30): 448 (77.5%)
  • Nathan Shepherd (30): 270 (52.2%)
  • Marcus Maye (30): 242 (46.8%, missed time because of suspension and injury)
  • Lou Hedley (30): 77 (33.6%)

That’s about a quarter of the 53-man roster, but just seven players are both 30-plus and playing more than half the snaps in one of the game’s three phases. And it’s not like the Saints haven’t been lining up replacement plans. They’ve spent multiple high draft picks on options to take over for Jordan at defensive end, but first-rounders like Marcus Davenport and Payton Turner have missed too much time with injuries to be worthy heirs. The jury is out on Isaiah Foskey so early into his career. He needs to play more often.

Things look better at linebacker, where Pete Werner is primed to start in the middle once Davis is ready to step away from the game. Rookie safety Jordan Howden looks like a promising replacement for Maye over the top and is already running with the starters. The offensive line needs to be replenished (in addition to Hurst and Garcia, Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat are both 29), but that’s more because their highly paid players aren’t meeting expectations. Neither are young draft picks like Trevor Penning.

Don’t get it twisted: The Saints have some real flaws. But they’ve been one of the oldest teams in the league consistently, and that hasn’t been a major factor in their wins and losses. Still, hopefully they can hit on some draft picks in the years ahead and get this roster ready to contend for a long time.

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Marvin Jones Jr. is the NFL’s oldest WR in 2023

Lions wideout Marvin Jones Jr. is the NFL’s oldest WR to start the 2023 season

For a Detroit Lions team that is looking to continue its roster makeover, youth infusion is a top priority. The front office led by Brad Holmes is drafting and signing tons of talent that are either top-end or being overlooked and lining them up to be coached up by Dan Campbell and his staff.

While finding those inearthed diamonds in the draft or free agent pool is important, so is providing veteran leadership for them to learn from. For the 2023 season, the wide receiver room and coaching staff seem to be leaning on Marvin Jones Jr. who returns to Detroit after leaving in 2021 to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It is one thing however to be a veteran presence in the locker room, Jones Jr. entered the league in 2012, but it is another to be the oldest receiver on the roster and in the NFL in a literal sense. Jones is the oldest wide receiver in the league at 33.5 years old.

Technically, Matthew Slater is older, but he is a special teams player listed as a receiver. He’s caught one pass in 15 NFL seasons. Calling him a receiver is akin to calling Lions punter Jack Fox a quarterback because he has thrown four passes on fake punts.

Jones Jr. as mentioned above is in Detroit now to coach up and lead by example the young receiving corp for the Lions. Taking him out of the equation, the average age of the Lions receiver room is slightly over 25 years old making Jones Jr. eight years their elder.

Looking back, Marvin Jones Jr. left Detroit for Jacksonville to the tune of a $12.5 million dollar contract. He signed there to be one of the top receiving options for the young franchise piece Trevor Lawrence but he couldn’t find his groove. The groove he found in Detroit allowed him to average 859 yards receiving per game as a Lion, as a Jaguar he averaged 680.

Expectations for his role may be large to the fans and some media but by taking a steo back and looking at it you can see it for what it is. While Jones Jr. may be able to produce in some bulk at times, the Lions and you the reader shouldn’t rely on that. His veteran presence off the field will yield way more than anyhing he does this season on the field.

The Lions are still one of the NFL’s youngest teams

The Lions average player age has gone up but Detroit still fields one of the NFL’s youngest rosters

The third season of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell regime in Detroit sees the Lions maturing into a team most everyone expects to be a playoff squad in 2023. The maturity is starting to show in the average age of the team, too.

This year’s initial 53-man Lions roster carries an average age of 25.7 years old. Jimmy Kempski of the Philly Voice tabulates the average age of the 53-man rosters every year and quickly tallied up the ages of the NFL rosters after Tuesday’s final cutdown. Detroit’s 25.7 average age is tied for 10th-youngest with the Bears, Dolphins and Giants.

Last year, the Lions were the second-youngest team in the tabulation. The average age was 25.2 years old in 2022.

Detroit still doesn’t have a single defensive player over 30 years old, but the Lions did get more seasoned on the offensive side of the ball.

This year, the Green Bay Packers are the youngest at 25.0 average years, while the New Orleans Saints are the oldest with an average age of 27.4. As Kempski notes, there isn’t a correlation between average age and the success of the team.

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Lions defense remains no country for old players

The Detroit Lions defense has just one player over 28 years old, keeping them among the youngest teams in recent NFL history

Last season, the Detroit Lions fielded one of the NFL’s youngest overall rosters of the last 20 years. On defense, there was just one player over 30 years old.

That player, Michael Brockers, is no longer in Detroit. And as a result, the Lions remain skewed precociously young on the defensive side of the ball.

As of July 30th, there are six defensive players who are 28 years old. The greybeard is journeyman defensive lineman Christian Covington, all 29 years old of him. Covington is no lock to make the final 53, either.

The bulk of the 28-year-olds represent the leadership on the defense. Alex Anzalone and Charles Harris are players the coaching staff trust and depend upon to help bring along the young players and keep developing. Tracy Walker is a team captain. Newcomer Cam Sutton has captain written all over him, too. Romeo Okwara has tremendous experience to offer as a washout with a former team who emerged as a force, only to lose significant time to injuries. Jalen Reeves-Maybin is back in the den to help lead the special teams unit — provided he makes the team.

Anzalone, Harris, Reeves-Maybin and Sutton all hail from the NFL draft class of 2017, meaning they’re 28 but already entering their seventh professional seasons. Okwara was a rookie in 2016, giving him an extra year of experience. It’s an asset of drafting younger players, even if the Lions themselves only drafted Reeves-Maybin (and Walker, in 2018).

The coaching staff being comprised of so many former players — and recently active players at that — helps mitigate any potential void of veteran experience or aged wisdom with such a young roster. The Lions do have cap room to consider signing an older veteran if they choose, but thus far Detroit has shown little inclination to add anyone on defense. These Lions are willing to sacrifice a little older experience for youthful potential.

The 2022 Detroit Lions were one of the youngest teams since 2005

The 2022 Detroit Lions were the NFL’s youngest team in terms of snap-weighted average age and one of the five youngest in nearly 20 years

The 2022 Detroit Lions were the franchise’s most successful team in several years. They did so despite being one of the NFL’s youngest teams of the last two decades.

Using a metric known as “snap-weighted age” from Football Outsiders, the 2022 Lions were indeed quite precocious. Detroit’s snap-weighted age, or SWA, was an NFL-low 25.3 years old. It quantifies the age of the people actually playing the snaps, which differentiates it from the overall roster age.

The defense, in particular, was extremely young. Detroit’s SWA on defense was just 24.8 years old. It made the Lions’ defense the only one with an average SWA under 25.

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From Football Outsiders,

The youngest teams in 2022 were very young, historically young in fact. The overall SWA for the entire league has dropped gradually over a decade before stabalizing at 26.4 during the last four years. But one result of the league as a whole getting younger is that the youngest teams in SWA are all recent. The Lions were the fourth-youngest team since 2006 and the Chiefs ranked seventh.

The last two years of the Lions rank 4th and 5th in terms of the youngest SWA since 2006, when Football Outsiders began tracking the data.

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Jaguars CB group is the youngest in the NFL

With an average age of 23.73, Jacksonville has the NFL’s youngest cornerback group.

Jacksonville’s secondary may have struggled tremendously last season, but one thing it has going for it is youth — especially at cornerback. The Jags’ group of corners is the NFL’s youngest at an average age of 23.73, according to The 33rd Team’s Ben Elsner.

That’s nearly two years younger than the league average of 25.35. The most experienced veteran in the group is starter and offseason free-agent signing Shaquill Griffin, who is 25. C.J. Henderson, a 22-year-old first-round pick in 2020, is expected to start opposite him. Depth players Sidney Jones IV, Tre Herndon and Chris Claybrooks are all 25 or younger.

Further, the likely Day 1 starter at nickel is a rookie in Tyson Campbell. Between Griffin, Henderson and Campbell, Jacksonville hopes it has a solid core for years to come at the position. With Griffin just entering his prime and Henderson and Campbell still early on their rookie deals, the unit has the potential to improve significantly in the coming years.

The Jags were one of the league’s worst teams against the pass in 2020, but after heavily investing in the corner position this offseason, they’ll hope to see big strides on the field in 2021.

Does the NFL have an aging fan problem?

The Super Bowl averaged just below 100 million viewers a few days ago. Television numbers were pretty good this year even if in-person attendance went in the opposite direction. The NFL is coming up on what should be historic television deals in …

The Super Bowl averaged just below 100 million viewers a few days ago. Television numbers were pretty good this year even if in-person attendance went in the opposite direction. The NFL is coming up on what should be historic television deals in 2021 — assuming there isn’t an extremely extended work stoppage due to the CBA expiring in 2020. Everything is rainbows, sunshine, peaches, cream, cherries on top and any other description of great for the NFL when it comes to television. Well, that is except for this:

Yes, the NFL isn’t Major League Baseball, which had the oldest average age of its viewers at 57 in 2017. Football’s average age of its viewers was at 50. That’s better. It’s still not the NBA (42) or soccer (39).

A 1.5-year median age jump in one year for the Super Bowl should be a slight concern. After all, just staying at the same rate should make the average median age 48.7.

No league wants to be associated with an aging fanbase. Older fans age out of viewership. It’s simple logic to point out that younger fans have a longer lifetime value to the leagues, and there are other benefits to a younger fan base. It’s easier to market the game as something cool. Brands get the association effect or halo from a league with younger fans and then those brands resonate with the view. Bud Light doesn’t want to be seen by young impressionable customers as associated with something that only old people drink while watching an old person NFL game.

And that’s where we come to the median age of fans watching the Super Bowl on television. Yes, Fox, CBS, ESPN/ABC, NBC, and whatever other traditional television rights holder will be throwing tons of money at the NFL. It will be billions of dollars. The price is only going up from where it is now. It just might not be the most money the league can get out of these television providers because of that median age of viewers ticking upwards.

So the NFL will do the obvious thing and move toward streaming providers. They likely won’t want to go with an exclusive provider. ESPN/ABC will want content for ESPN+. YouTubeTV, Amazon, Facebook, DAZN, and other streaming providers will want to get their hands on NFL content as well. The less exclusivity, the less valuable it is to a provider. So not only will TV compete with traditional television competition, but they will also be competing with the cord-cutting generation.

That’s where the NFL lags behind the NBA. This isn’t an immediate problem. It’s probably not a problem five years down the line. It could be a problem in 10-15 years — assuming the leagues are still around then. The NBA has done a great job leveraging social and digital media to lay the groundwork for long-term growth. It feels like the NFL is slightly behind. At least these leagues are MLB which essentially bans anything cool from going up on social media without the expressed consent of Major League Baseball. The NFL isn’t nearly that bad.

It’s just something to think about. Again, it’s not an immediate threat, but it’s time to start thinking about the long bending arc of the business. Roger Goodell isn’t just the steward for the game that just celebrated its 100th anniversary for the next five years. He is responsible for the vision 10 to 15 years down the line. The aging customer should be one of the top things every league worries about. Maybe the NFL just needs to turn an eye to that a bit early to set itself up for continued success and growth far down the line.

That should be easy. Invest in more digital media. Monetize and license content through YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Snapchat, Twitter, and anything else under the sun that may contain content — even if that content isn’t normally allowed on the site. Discuss those changes with television partners and prepare them for streaming deals. Work closely with streaming providers to figure out the best distribution policies and remember the next generation of fans may never know what a cable bill actually is. At that point, the median TV viewership number doesn’t matter. Because only old people will be watching TV.