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The Colorado Avalanche (13-12-0) take on the Buffalo Sabres (11-11-2) Tuesday evening. Puck drop from KeyBank Center is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Avalanche vs. Sabres odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: First meeting; tied 1-1 last year
The Avs have dropped 3 of 4 after a 4-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers Saturday as -124 favorites. C Nathan MacKinnon‘s goal-scoring drought has reached 10 games. He has 7, 5 and 10 shots on goal the last 3 games – so he’s trying.
The Sabres have lost 3 straight games and were shut out in 2 of them, including a 3-0 loss to the New York Islanders Saturday. RW Tage Thompson has not scored in the 3 games, coincidentally, which followed a 4-game goal streak.
The Avs are 8-2-0 in the last 10 meetings, but the Sabres have won 2 of the last 3, in each team’s building.
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Avalanche at Sabres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NHL odds. Lines last updated at 3:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Avalanche -160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Sabres +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Avalanche -1.5 (+150) | Sabres +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Avalanche at Sabres projected goalies
Alexandar Georgiev (7-7-0, 3.31 GAA, .875 SV%) vs. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen (8-5-2, 2.54 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO)
Let’s give Georgiev credit. He played a back-to-back Friday-Saturday against 2 Stanley Cup contenders in the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t terrible, either. He stopped 19 of 23 against Dallas and 28 of 31 against Edmonton. They lost both of those games. Buffalo beat him in his only start against them last season as he stopped 25 of 28.
Luukkonen dropped a 4-3 heartbreaker in overtime Friday to the Vancouver Canucks. He stopped 18 of 22 in the game. He actually had a really good November with a 5-2-1 mark, a 1.94 GAA and a .926 SV%. He’s not a household name, but he’s a sneaky good goalie at 25. He was 1-1-0 with a 2.50 GAA and .904 SV% against Colorado last season.
Avalanche at Sabres picks and predictions
Prediction
Avalanche 4, Sabres 2
Moneyline
The Sabres are 6-6-1 at home, and the Avs are 6-5-0 on the road. I really, really could see Buffalo winning this game. Colorado just doesn’t have a good vibe right now, and they feel like they know they need help and are waiting for the front office to make a trade.
It’s telling that Buffalo is only at +135 here because the Avs would normally be around a -180 favorite. If Buffalo were at +150, I’d probably take a shot there, but not at this price. This books have this one cornered. I’d rather go with NATHAN MACKINNON OVER 4.5 SHOTS (+125). BetMGM has given most users a 20% NHL boost, which would take this to +150. MacKinnon was routinely at this number last season, and he has hit it in 5 straight games. So you’re basically getting 1 1/2 times your profit for something that was commonplace last year.
Puck line/Against the spread
I like Buffalo here, but I don’t want to pay the -185. Give me UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN OVER 26.5 SAVES (-110) instead. Line his numbers up with Igor Shesterkin, and UPL is just as good with a worse team dating back to the beginning of last season.
Over/Under
I don’t like this total. Honestly, at first glance of all 3 lines in writing this, I felt like the book gave us snake eyes. We have had 6, 4 and 6 goals in the last 3 meetings, dating back to the 2022 calendar year. I don’t want to look at much beyond that because these teams are too different since then.
Take the ALTERNATE OVER 5.5 (-160), and if you still have that 20% boost, drop it here to bring it to -134.
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