No. 2 Austin FC visits Banc of California Stadium to take on No. 1 LAFC in the MLS Western Conference final. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (ESPN3). Below, we preview Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Austin FC vs. LAFC odds, and make our best MLS bets, picks and predictions.
LAFC added several former international superstars in the middle of the season to a roster that was already the best in the West. They had one of the best seasons in MLS history, totaling 67 points in 34 games.
Former Real Madrid F Gareth Bale was a big-time addition. He had 2 goals. F Cristian Arango had a team-high 16 and F Carlos Vela led the team in goals and assists with a combined 21.
On the other hand, Austin FC finished 12th of just 13 teams in the West last season and crushed preseason expectations, scoring 65 goals, the 2nd-most in the conference.
Austin was led by M Sebastian Driussi, who scored 22 goals on the season. His 22 was tied with Philadelphia’s M Daniel Gazdag for the 2nd-most in the league.
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Austin FC vs. LAFC odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:32 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Austin FC +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | LAFC -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Draw +380
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
LAFC 2, Austin FC 1
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
While I certainly do not hate a draw, especially at +380, betting against this LAFC team is not wise. They clearly have the most talent in the MLS and will be at home. At -200, their moneyline value just isn’t worth the risk.
Austin actually beat LAFC in both meetings this season, a 2-1 win on the road and a 4-1 win at home. I don’t expect history to be repeated and would avoid any play other than potentially a small unit on the draw.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 3.5 (-130).
You don’t sit within the top 2 in a highly competitive conference without high-level defending, and although the offensive weapons will highlight analysis, both teams are strong defensively.
Both teams sit in the top half of the league in save percentage, and LAFC ranked No. 1 in shots against.
Had it not been for a stoppage-time penalty that helped them advance, Austin would have had this Under hit in 9 straight games. It allowed just 2.1 expected goals against in its 2 playoff games as well.
LAFC won 3-2 over the Galaxy in its lone playoff game, but its opponent has just .4 expected goals. It has gone Under this total in 6 of its last 8.
With this expected to be a highly competitive battle, goals should be difficult to come by as is typical with playoff action. Bet the Under 3.5 (-130) despite the juice.
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