Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat predictions pick betting line spread

The No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks (0-1) continue their first-round playoff series with the No. 1 seed Miami Heat (1-0) Tuesday at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami beat the brakes off of Atlanta 115-91 Sunday in Game 1, outscoring the Hawks in each of the first three quarters and the Heat’s biggest lead was 32 points.

The Heat neutralized Hawks All-Star PG Trae Young, who was 1-for-12 from the field (0-for-7 from threes), and forced 6 turnovers to Young’s 4 assists. On the other hand, Miami got whatever it wanted, shooting 52.4% and 47.4% from behind the arc.

Hawks at Heat odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:13 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Hawks +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Heat -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +7.5 (-112) | Heat -7.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Hawks at Heat key injuries

Hawks

SG Bogdan Bogdanovich (ankle) probable
C Clint Capela (knee) out

Heat

PF Bam Adebayo (quadriceps) questionable
C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
SG Gabe Vincent (toe) probable

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Hawks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 114, Hawks 103

Money line

PASS

Even though the Heat should win this handily, Miami (-350) is way out of my price range.

The loss of Capela is huge for the Hawks (+265) and Miami is the best 3-point team in the NBA by offensive and defensive 3-point shooting differential. But I’m confident enough in the Heat to go with their spread instead of spending on the pricey ML.

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Against the spread

TAKE the HEAT -7.5 (-108) because the Hawks +7.5 (-112) are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 visits to Miami and Young has struggled in South Beach throughout his career. He is averaging just 17.4 points on 36.9% shooting (26.7% from 3) with 5.4 turnovers in 9 career games in Miami.

Also, Atlanta is 4-16 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 2-7 ATS as 5-to-9.5-point underdogs while Miami is clicking at the right time and is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games.

Furthermore, the Heat were fourth in defensive rating over the regular season and the Hawks are 2-12 straight up versus top-10 defenses with a minus-6.7 adjusted net rating and a minus-3.0 ATS differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

BET the HEAT -7.5 (-105).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 219.5 (-115) since the presumed sharp side of the market is projecting a lower-scoring game, both teams are ranked 20th in pace or slower, Atlanta is 0-9 O/U in the last 9 games as an underdog and all four of the referees assigned to this game have officiated more Unders than Overs.

However, the total has been increased from the 217-point opener so perhaps oddsmakers are trying to induce more Under action and both teams are top-10 in offensive FT/FGA rate.

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The Atlanta Hawks (42-38) head to South Beach Friday to play the first-place Miami Heat (52-28). Tip-off at FTX Arena is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Atlanta bounced back from a 118-108 loss at the Toronto Raptors Tuesday to beat the Washington Wizards 118-103 the next night. The Hawks are 6-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.

Miami hammered the Charlotte Hornets 144-115 Tuesday for its fifth consecutive victory (5-0 ATS).

The Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Hawks this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U), but Atlanta beat Miami 110-108 at home in their last meeting Jan. 21.

Hawks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Hawks -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Heat +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread: Hawks -1.5 (-112) | Heat +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 229.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Hawks at Heat key injuries

Hawks

PF John Collins (finger) out

Heat

C Dewayne Dedmon (ankle) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) out
SG Gabe Vincent (toe) questionable

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Hawks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 117, Hawks 112

Money line

LEAN HEAT (+102) because I prefer to take any points I can get with Miami. However, the Heat are 4-1 SU as home underdogs and play exceptional pick-and-roll, which is imperative when playing the Hawks and All-Star PG Trae Young.

Atlanta is also 26th in defensive rating and Miami tears up bad defenses. The Heat are 23-7 SU versus teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency with a plus-9.1 adjusted net rating (ranked seventh) and a plus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked seventh) according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

The Heat are the right side but I’d prefer to wait to see if Miami’s spread goes north of +2.5. LEAN HEAT (+102).

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Against the spread

BET the HEAT +1.5 (-108) because I cannot reverse engineer the crazy line movement so my hunch is that the oddsmakers were correct when they made Miami a 4.5-point favorite on the opener.

Sportsbooks are aware of the Heat’s injury woes throughout the season yet still opened Miami as a clear favorite. Even if the Heat are sitting several key contributors, Miami’s role players can hold down the fort at home.

Furthermore, this is a bad spot for Atlanta and a good one for Miami. The Hawks are 4-14 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to Miami and 9-11 ATS with a rest disadvantage. While the Heat are 9-6 ATS with 2-3 days off and a plus-6.6 ATS margin.

However, I’d wait until the official starting 5s are announced in case the HEAT +1.5 (-108) increases because, if they don’t, I’d still bet Miami up to a 2.5-point favorite.