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The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) visit the Denver Broncos (5-5) on Sunday with kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Falcons vs. Broncos odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Both teams sit square in their respective conference playoff races. QB Kirk Cousins‘ Falcons sit atop the NFC South, while the Broncos, led by emergent rookie QB Bo Nix, have positioned themselves into a late-season battle for a Wild Card berth.
The Falcons come into Week 11, however, reeling from a key 20-17 divisional loss to the New Orleans Saints. However, they’ve won 5 of their past 7 games.
Denver has run into a reality check the past 2 weeks, suffering losses to the Baltimore Ravens (41-10) and Kansas City Chiefs (16-14 on a last-second blocked field goal).
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Falcons at Broncos odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Falcons +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Broncos -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +2 (-110) | Broncos -2 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Falcons at Broncos key injuries
Falcons
- CB Mike Hughes (neck) out
Broncos
- S Brandon Jones (abdomen) questionable
- WR Josh Reynolds (hand) out
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Falcons at Broncos picks and predictions
Prediction
Falcons 24, Broncos 21
Moneyline
The DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, per FTN) rankings make this a tough play. The Broncos sit at 15th in the league; the Falcons rank 17th.
Betting against a Sean Payton team at home typically doesn’t work out.
However, I’m going to bank on the Falcons defense doing just enough against the rookie QB despite the road assignment. The Falcons’ cornerback tandem of lockdown merchant A.J. Terrell and the improved Clark Phillips should frustrate Nix.
Atlanta’s offense should control the game, especially on the back of RB Bijan Robinson.
I’ll go with the positive vig with the road squad.
BET FALCONS (+110).
Against the spread
Given my prediction, I’ll also lock in the Falcons ATS, though covering +2 does not give much margin for error.
This is a pick against trends: Denver has beat the books at 7-3 versus the spread overall, including 2-0 as a home favorite. (Atlanta is 5-5 with a win as a road underdog.)
Cousins should overcome the thin air and tough defense with his plethora of offensive pieces.
BET FALCONS +2 (-110).
Over/Under
I’ll complete the trifecta and predict both clubs will light up the scoreboard.
Even with the potential pitfalls I’m predicting for Nix, Denver should find a few successful scoring drives, which should do the Broncos’ part to keep pace.
BET OVER 44.5 (-110).
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