Over the past few weeks, we have broken down just about every Falcons player likely to have an impact on this fantasy football season. To this point, we’ve covered Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts. Today, our fantasy series concludes with tight end Hayden Hurst.
After losing Austin Hooper in free agency, Atlanta acquired Hurst in a trade with Baltimore during the 2020 offseason. The former first-round pick got his chance to be the featured tight end in an NFL offense, recording 56 catches, 571 receiving yards and six touchdowns last season.
With the loss of Julio Jones, Hurst could potentially see an even bigger increase in production. However, the team drafted tight end Kyle Pitts in the first round, which will cut into Hurst’s targets.
What can we expect
ESPN has Hurst as its 33rd-ranked tight end with a projected total of 89.02 fantasy points — which is 60 points less than his total in 2020. Hurst averaged just over nine fantasy points per game, but his projection for 2021 is around 5.2 points per game. ESPN only projects Hurst for 377 yards on 35 receptions and three scores.
While Pro Football Focus is a bit more Hurst-friendly, it’s not by much. PFF projects Hurst for 405 receiving yards on 40 receptions and four touchdowns, with a per game average of 5.97.
Hurst’s most favorable matchups
- Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 2 / 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 5: New York jets
- Week 12: Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 17: Buffalo Bills
Hurst’s least favorable matchups
- Week 9/18: New Orleans Saints
- Week 11: New England Patriots
- Week 15: San Francisco 49ers
- Week 16: Detroit Lions
Final Verdict
Late in the draft, Hurst could be a solid option, depending on the construction of your roster. While Hurst may no longer be the focal point at tight end, he will still see a significant portion of snaps. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith likes to employ offensive sets that feature more than one tight end.
The more likely scenario is that Hurst will go undrafted in your league as his average draft position has declined significantly in recent months, dropping to 270 overall. You’re likely to find more value elsewhere, but until we progress into the season and have a better understanding on how Arthur Smith wants to run his team, it’s best to stay away in the early weeks.
[lawrence-related id=78291,78265,75048,75046,75044]
[vertical-gallery id=78258]
