The Houston Astros (43-26) and New York Yankees (52-18) continue their 4-game series Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Yankees lead 1-0 after a 9th-inning rally and a 7-6 triumph in the series opener.
The Astros led most of Thursday’s game, but then lost a bullpen battle when the Yankees stormed back from a 6-3 deficit in the final frame. The loss snapped a 3-game winning streak. Houston is 6-2 across its last 8 games.
The Yankees now have 4 one-run victories since June 15. New York heads into the final weekend in June leading MLB in pitching/defense (3.06 runs per game) and ranking 2nd in offense (5.14 RPG).
Astros at Yankees projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Luis Severino
Verlander (8-3, 2.30 ERA) has made 13 starts. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 82 1/3 IP.
- Had a June ERA of 1.71 until his Saturday start vs. the Chicago White Sox start when he was pounded for 7 runs (4 ER) on 9 hits over 3 2/3 IP .
- Has held current Yankees to a .577 OPS over his career, but has not faced New York since 2019.
Severino (4-1, 3.27 ERA) has clocked a 1.06 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 66 IP in 12 starts.
- Last pitched on Sunday when he made a delayed-by-a-couple-days start at Toronto and coughed up 5R in as many innings. Was briefly on the COVID-19 list earlier that same week.
- Owns a 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP at home.
Astros at Yankees odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Yankees -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Astros at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Astros 4
Money line
Verlander is a tremendous pitcher but one likely being overrated by surface numbers tamped down by a .230 batting average on balls in play. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, and the Yanks feast on fly-ball types. And in this game, the veteran hurler is backed by a bullpen reaching some recent usage red flags.
Severino gets back on normal rest after an 8-day rest interval last time out. He’s backed by a rested bullpen.
YANKEES (-130) is a solid play on the value meter.
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Run line/Against the spread
With the low total and the Yankees pulled in to more 1-2-run games of late, PASS.
Over/Under
Both clubs have overcooked pitching numbers and are, in principle, due for some Overs moving forward. With some slight fade-Verlander lean in the mix, the Over is the play in mind.
But a 25-cent line here drowns out the value edge. AVOID … unless an Over 7.5 (-120) tag becomes available.
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