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The Houston Astros (87-72) and Arizona Diamondbacks (84-75) get together to open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch at Chase Field is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Houston and Arizona split 4 games last season.
The Astros rebounded from a shaky 1-5 home stand to go 2-1 over 3 key weekday games at the Seattle Mariners from Monday to Wednesday. In doing so, Houston leapfrogged the Mariners in the AL Wild Card race.
The Astros enter the weekend 1 game behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2nd AL Wild Card and 1 game ahead of Seattle for the final Wild Card in an apparent 3-legged race. However, Houston is also still within reach of an AL West crown as it only trails the Texas Rangers by 2 games.
The Diamondbacks are back in Phoenix after a 3-3 road trip. The current 2nd NL Wild Card is likely happy to be back in its home environs. Arizona is a robust 13-4 over its last 17 games at Chase Field.
Astros at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP J.P. France vs. RHP Zac Gallen
France (11-6, 3.83 ERA) is tabbed for his 24th start and 25th appearance. He owns a 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 136 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 loss vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday
- 2023 Road stats: 6-2, 3.11 ERA in 66 2/3 IP over 11 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Has never faced Arizona
- Owns a Boeing 7.08 ERA over his last 7 starts
Gallen (17-8, 3.49 ERA) is tabbed for his 34 start of the season. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 203 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 7-1 win at New York Yankees Sunday
- 2023 Home stats: 12-2, 2.45 ERA in 95 2/3 IP across 15 starts
- Career starts vs. Astros: 1-0, 3.24 ERA in 25 IP across 4 starts (2020-22)
- Posted a 6.37 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 5 starts from Aug. 28-Sept. 19
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Astros at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+155) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Astros at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Diamondbacks 5
Moneyline
Arizona has scored 4.68 runs per game while allowing 4.72, so its winning record is likely suspect.
The Astros are a would-be lean without any pitching attached. However, France pitching does nothing for an Astros wager.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Houston is 27-15 in games decided by 5-or-more runs. Both sides play fewer 1-run games than average.
A +170 return would make for a decent prospecting return on a Houston -1.5 play, but current pricing offers no value.
PASS.
Over/Under
Houston has hit its team Over in 29 of the club’s last 43 road games (+12.50 units, 25% ROI). The Astros have scored 5-plus runs in 9 of their last 13 games, and that’s with a shaky stretch of clutch batting performances in those games.
France has gotten by with a .281 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in his road efforts and his overall numbers are also tamped down by a .279 BABIP in inning lead-off situations and a .271 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
Both France and Gallen have had plenty of iffy starts of late. The Arizona bullpen has logged results of late that figure as way out too far over their skis. Gallen can struggle in 3rd-time-around situations, exposing that unit.
TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (+100).
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