The Arlington Renegades (4-6) and the Houston Roughnecks (7-3) meet Saturday in the XFL South Division Championship. Kickoff from TDECU Stadium in Houston is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Renegades vs. Roughnecks odds, and make our expert XFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Renegades backed into the playoffs after San Antonio lost a heartbreaker at home against DC in Week 10. Arlington lost 4 of its final 5 games, including a 25-9 setback as a 1-point favorite last week against Houston at home. The Under cashed in both meetings against Houston this season.
The Roughnecks won the final 3 games of the regular season while covering the spread in their past 2 outings. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games overall. Houston went 2-0 straight up and against the spread against Arlington this season, winning the first meeting 23-14 as a 4.5-point favorite as the Under (39.5) connected in Week 2.
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Renegades at Roughnecks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Renegades +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Roughnecks -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Renegades +6.5 (-110) | Roughnecks -6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Renegades at Roughnecks key injuries
Renegades
- WR Victor Bolden (shoulder, groin) out
- DB Javaris Davis (groin) questionable
- LB Isaiah Graham-Mobley (shoulder) out
Roughnecks
- WR Michael Bandy (hip) questionable
- RB Dejoun Lee (shoulder) questionable
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Renegades at Roughnecks picks and predictions
Prediction
Roughnecks 24, Arlington 12
Moneyline
The Roughnecks (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s quite risky despite that they have beaten the Renegades in both regular-season meetings.
PASS, and look to the line instead.
Against the spread
The ROUGHNECKS -6.5 (-110) are a solid play worth pursuing rather aggressively, as long as the line doesn’t move to a flat 7 or 7.5.
Houston has won and covered both of its regular-season games against the Renegades, and it went 4-1 ATS in 5 home outings this season.
Arlington was a respectable 3-2 ATS in 5 games on the road, but it did fail to cover in its trip to Houston back in Week 2.
Over/Under
UNDER 41.5 (-110) is worth playing in this trilogy matchup.
The Under cashed in each of the regular season meetings, with Arlington managing just 11.5 points per game. The Under went 8-2 overall for the Renegades, while the Under was 3-1 in the past 4 home games for the Roughnecks.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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