Arkansas at Alabama odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Arkansas at Alabama odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (15-15, 6-11 SEC) and No. 17 Alabama Crimson Tide (20-10, 12-5) wrap up their regular seasons Saturday. Tip-off from Coleman Coliseum is set for noon ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas vs. Alabama odds as we make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The Razorbacks are coming off a 94-83 Senior Night win against the LSU Tigers Wednesday. They covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites, and the game went over the 154.5 total. G Khalif Battle put on a show in front of the home fans in his last night at Bud Walton, finishing with 29 points, 4 boards, 3 blocks, 2 assists and a steal. Arkansas as a team blocked 10 of LSU’s shots in the victory.

The Razorbacks are 2-6 in their last 8 SEC road games.

Alabama, which is No. 17 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, is coming off of an embarrassing 105-87 loss at the Florida Gators Tuesday. It failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point underdog, and the Over (176) hit. The Crimson Tide got 33 points from G Mark Sears on 4-of-6 shooting from long range, but it wasn’t enough. Alabama’s 13 turnovers, which became 17 Gator points, were its downfall in the end.

The Crimson Tide have won 7 of their last 8 SEC home games.

Alabama is 3-0 straight up and 1-2 ATS in the last 3 meetings. The most recent meeting was an Arkansas cover as a 7.5-point underdog in an 86-83 Crimson Tide win in Tuscaloosa Feb. 25, 2023, as the Over (154) hit.

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Arkansas at Alabama odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Arkansas +890 (bet $100 to win $890) | Alabama -1700 (bet $1,700 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas +15.5 (-110) | Alabama -15.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 173.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)

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Arkansas at Alabama picks and predictions

Prediction

Alabama 94, Arkansas 81

Moneyline

PASS.

You should obviously avoid betting Alabama (-1700), as those odds are ridiculously high. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET ARKANSAS +15.5 (-110).

I’m going to ride the hot hand with the Razorbacks. They have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and are on a 3-game ATS winning streak on the road.

Alabama has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5, including back-to-back non-covers at home.

While the Crimson Tide have won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matchups against Arkansas, the Razorbacks have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

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Over/Under

AVOID.

If you want to bet this, be my guest, but this number is just too darn high for me. All the trends tell me to bet the Over, but I can’t do it.

The Over has hit in 8 of Alabama’s last 10 games and 9 of the last 10 for Arkansas. Neither of these teams particularly takes pride in its defense; they both just try to outscore opponents. It will likely be a shootout.

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Arkansas at Alabama odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Arkansas at Alabama odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Arkansas Razorbacks (19-9, 8-7 SEC) battle the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (24-4, 14-1) Saturday. Tip from Coleman Coliseum is set for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

Alabama beat Arkansas 84-69 on the road Jan. 11, covering as a 1.5-point road underdog as the total (153) pushed.

The Crimson Tide come into this game off a 78-76 takedown of South Carolina Wednesday, failing to cover as 17-point favorites. They are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games and 16-11-1 ATS on the season.

The Razorbacks beat Georgia 97-65 Tuesday, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. They are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 outings to improve to 14-13-1 ATS on the season.

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Arkansas at Alabama odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:26 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Arkansas +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Alabama -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas +7.5 (-105) | Alabama -7.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Arkansas at Alabama picks and predictions

Prediction

Alabama 78, Arkansas 68

Moneyline

AVOID.

Do not put Alabama (-360) in your moneyline parlays. Arkansas is a respectable side, and although it is unplayable on the moneyline Saturday, it should still put up a strong fight.

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Against the spread

BET ALABAMA -7.5 (-115).

The Crimson Tide might be 4-5 ATS over their last 9 games, but they are 3-1 ATS at home in that span. They have won their last 3 home games by at least 28 points.

Alabama is 9-4 ATS at home this season while Arkansas is an SEC-worst 2-6 ATS on the road. In conference play, Alabama is also 11-4 ATS while Arkansas is just 6-9 ATS.

The Razorbacks rank 308th in 3-point field goal percentage (31.5%), so keeping pace with a dynamic Crimson Tide attack could be difficult. Couple it all, and back ALABAMA -7.5 (-115).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 151.5 (-110).

Arkansas is 1-3-1 O/U with lines above 145. Its offense is not one that pushes the pace and shoots a ton of 3s. The Razorbacks are the 15th-most efficient shooting team (48.6%), but the Crimson Tide defense ranks 3rd in opponents’ field goal percentage (37.4%).

Alabama is also 2-3 O/U with a total of 150 or higher in its last 10 games. Back the UNDER 151.5 (-105).

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Arkansas at Alabama odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1, 5-1 in SEC) hosts the No. 22 Arkansas Razorbacks (7-3, 3-3) in an SEC West showdown Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Arkansas vs. Alabama odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Arkansas went into “Death Valley” in Week 11 and beat the LSU Tigers 16-13 in overtime but pushed as 3-point road favorites. The Razorbacks are led by their ground game that attempts the second-most rushes per game and averages the second-most rushing yards per game in the SEC.

Arkansas is 5-4-1 ATS and 6-4 O/U with the 17th-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin.

Alabama won its fourth straight game Saturday by hammering the New Mexico State Aggies 59-3, covering a massive 51.5-point spread.

Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young has the second-best passer efficiency rating in the country (179.9) and the third-most passing touchdowns (33). Alabama is 6-4 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the 44th-toughest schedule, according to Sagarin.

Arkansas at Alabama odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Arkansas +800 (bet $100 to win $800) | Alabama -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas +20.5 (-107) | Alabama -20.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Arkansas at Alabama odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Alabama 41, Arkansas 14

Money line

PASS because the Crimson Tide needs to win this game if they have any hope of making the College Football Playoffs, but Alabama (-1600) is an outrageous price.

Don’t include Alabama (-1600) in a money line parlay either. There’s no value in playing the money line in this game unless you think Arkansas (+800) can pull off a miracle.

Against the spread

Arkansas is a one-dimensional offense that runs the ball at the sixth-highest rate in college football.

Alabama has one of the best rushing defenses in the country. For instance, the Crimson Tide’s defense ranks fifth in rushing predicted points added (PPA), seventh in rushing success rate, third in line yards per snap, and sixth in open field yards.

On top of that, Alabama has the ninth-best defensive third-down conversion rate and sixth-best defensive success rate on passing downs. The question isn’t “can Alabama win?” It’s “how much will Alabama win by?”

Well, the Crimson Tide have beaten the Razorbacks by at least 32 points in their last four meetings. So, I’ll like the chalky ALABAMA -20.5 (-115) wager to cash this year as well.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 58.5 (-108) because there’s more money wagered on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

Furthermore, I think Alabama’s defense squashes Arkansas’s offense. However, since I’m betting and rooting for a Crimson Tide blowout, I’ll stick with Alabama to cover the spread.

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