The first crazy weekend of March Madness is sadly behind us. Now we’ll get a weekend with 12 high-stakes games starting on Thursday with No. 1 Gonzaga taking on No. 4 Arkansas. The Elite Eight will kick off on Saturday and go into Sunday.
After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Fans will be treated to two of the three remaining No. 1 seeds taking the court. In addition to the Zags and Arizona, No. 2 Villanova and No. 3 Texas Tech will enter as favorites for Thursday’s games.
Two games (Texas Tech-Duke and Arizona-Houston) are a mere 1.5-point spread while Gonzaga at 9.5 is the largest spread. That said, let’s break down an underdog to back on Thursday.
See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:27 p.m. ET.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness Sweet 16 betting primer
[tipico]
No. 5 Houston Cougars +1.5 (-107) vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats – 9:59 p.m. ET
The Houston Cougars beat the No. 12 UAB Blazers to kick off their run in the tournament. They then faced No. 4 Illinois, one of the best teams in the Big Ten with C Kofi Cockburn, who was second in the conference in points per game at 21.1.
The Cougars were undersized compared to Cockburn, but coach Kelvin Sampson’s game plan execution was perfect, holding the 7-foot center to 19 points and limiting the Fighting Illini’s other scoring options.
While their figures could be inflated due to a weak schedule in the AAC, Houston joins Gonzaga as the only team in the nation with both a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating per Kenpom, which has the Cougars as the second-best team in the country.
Furthermore, the Cougars have the best offensive rebounding rate in the nation, per teamrankings. Considering that Arizona gave up 20 offensive boards to TCU, Houston’s dominance on the glass could be a major advantage.
Arizona is a solid side and has arguably the best scorer in the nation in G Bennedict Mathurin, who willed the Wildcats to victory with a last-possession three to force OT.
I wouldn’t bet on him doing that again. I’ll take the Cougars to continue their impressive tournament run.
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