Tag: Angels Twins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Minnesota Twins (42-56) host the Los Angeles Angels (47-49) Saturday at Target Field for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split the first two meetings with L.A. winning the series opener 3-2 and Minnesota taking Friday’s game, 5-4.

Season series: Angels lead 3-2.

LHP Patrick Sandoval is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA (63 IP, 27 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 over 10 starts and three relief appearances.

• Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 9 K Sunday against the Seattle Mariners.
• 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 3.96 ERA (25 IP, 11 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate in four starts and one relief outing.

RHP Jose Berrios is on the rubber for the Twins. He is 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA (114 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 19 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 5-3, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 8 K Monday at the Chicago White Sox.
• Berrios beat L.A. May 20 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Minnesota’s 6-3 road win.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (49 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .200 batting average, .293 wOBA, .453 expected slugging percentage, 28.6 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Angels +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-185) | Twins -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Twins 5, Angels 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the TWINS (-130) because Berrios has pitched better at home than on the road throughout his career and we have a “pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money backing Minnesota.

Berrios is 32-19 at home in his career, compared to 23-23 on the road. He has a 3.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB at home against a 4.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB on the road.

Also, L.A.’s lineup is far less productive on the road. The Angels score 4.04 runs per game on the road, compared to 5.53 runs per game at home. They’ve hit 30 fewer home runs on the road in just two fewer games and have a .696 road OPS compared to an .819 home OPS.

Furthermore, more than 80% of the cash wagered is on the Twins but nearly 60% of the public is backing the Angels, according to Pregame.com. Generally, it’s smarter to follow the money in sports betting, especially when it’s contrary to the crowd.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I’m leaning toward the Under in Angels-Twins and Minnesota has the fourth-worst cover rate as a home favorite at 10-24 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

We’ve already discussed L.A.’s hitting futility away from Angel Stadium and Berrios’ effectiveness at home but there are a couple other factors as to why I “LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-115) for a half unit.

First of all, Sandoval’s pitching peripherals are fairly impressive. He grades in the 73rd percentile or better in hard-contact rate, EV, expected wOBA, xSLG, whiff rate and chase rate.

Plus this is also a “pros vs. Joes” situation with more than 80% of the money on the Under but more than three-quarters of the public backing the Over.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Los Angeles Angels (47-48) and Minnesota Twins (41-56) continue their four-game set at Target Field Friday with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Angels lead 3-1.

RHP Alex Cobb is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over 14 starts.

• Last outing: Win, 9-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners Saturday.
• Cobb beat Minnesota May 20 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in L.A.’s 7-1 victory.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster (67 PA): 4.13 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .312 wOBA, .529 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 14.9 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP J.A. Happ is on the mound for the Twins. He is 5-5 with a 6.15 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 17 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 7 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 4 K Sunday at the Detroit Tigers.
• vs. Angels on the current roster (60 PA): 6.64 FIP with a .283 BA, .389 wOBA, .434 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 89.6 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
• Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+120) | Twins +1.5 (-145)
• Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Angels 8, Twins 5

Money line (ML)

I’m all about fading Happ and BETTING the ANGELS (-125) because Happ’s advanced pitching numbers paint an even grimmer picture than his basic numbers and this L.A. lineup hits lefties very well.

For instance, Happ grades in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, barrel rate, whiff rate and K% and has the fifth-highest contact rate of all starters with a minimum of 50 IP. Also, the Angels rank in the top-five of baseball in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against lefties.

Finally, L.A. is getting “sharp” action, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Angels from slight underdogs on the opening line (-105) to favorites.

The “pros and Joes” are aligned on this one in the betting market, which isn’t typically an ideal spot to bet into, but the House moving the line in L.A.’s favor gives me confidence the ANGELS (-125) are the right side.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since L.A. has been predictably terrible at covering the spread as a road favorite with a 5-11 ATS record and a minus-1.4 run line margin, since the Angels are consistently overvalued in the market because of their star power.

I’d take a stab at L.A.’s run line if it were north of +140 but the bullpen isn’t reliable enough to back the Angels on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-110) for a half unit since the total is taking “sharp” action toward the Over and these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

Angels-Twins opened with a 9.5-run total but the market is barreling into the Over, instigating a line move. In addition, these ball clubs have the two highest Over rates in the majors.

My hesitancy with backing the Over is because it’s an overly obvious play. The Twins sending DH Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday also weakens their lineup.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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The Los Angeles Angels (46-48) visit the Minnesota Twins (41-55) Thursday to start a four-game series at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Angels lead 2-1.

LHP Andrew Heaney is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA (81 IP, 50 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 over 16 starts.

• Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K over 4 IP Friday against the Seattle Mariners.
• Heaney picked up a no-decision earlier this year against Minnesota (April 16) with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K in L.A.’s 10-3 victory.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster (40 PA): 8.20 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .401 wOBA, .551 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 92.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kenta Maeda makes his 16th start for the Twins. Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.

• Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Minnesota’s 5-4 loss at the Detroit Tigers Saturday.
• vs. Angels on the current roster (22 PA): 4.77 FIP, .158 BA, .262 wOBA, .397 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 84.7 mph EV.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

• Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
• RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

• Money line: Angels +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-150) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Twins 6, Angels 1

Money line (ML)

GIMME the TWINS (-150) for 1 unit because we are getting some awkward “reverse line movement” in the betting market, Minnesota has an edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Twins are productive against lefties.

First of all, Minnesota opened as roughly a -135 favorite on the money line but it has been steamed down to the current number despite nearly 60% of the cash wagered being on L.A., according to Pregame.com.

One of the biggest red flags when handicapping sports is when the House makes the more popular side cheaper. The most obvious explanation is that the oddsmakers want more pro-Angels money.

Second, Maeda has been much more effective at home than on the road this season. For example, Maeda has a 1.93 FIP and .292 wOBA at home compared to a 4.87 road FIP and .345 road wOBA. He hasn’t allowed a home run in Minnesota while giving up 11 on the road.

Finally, the Twins lineup has hit left-handed pitching fairly well despite what their 11-22 record vs. lefty starters indicates. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 of wOBA, wRC+, OPS and hard-contact rate against lefty pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the Twins -1.5 (+125) given how disappointing they’ve been this season. Minnesota is 10-23 ATS as a home favorite and an MLB-worst 15-31 ATS when playing outside of the division.

The first three Angels-Twins meetings this year were decided by at least 3 runs so there’s a high likelihood the spread doesn’t come into play but I’d need Minnesota’s run line to be priced north of +150 to wager on it.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that is barrelling into the Over but there’s a “line freeze” so oddsmakers are comfortable with their Angels-Twins total.

Almost 90% of the money is on the Over since the Over cashed in each of the first three head-to-head meetings this season but the total hasn’t budged from the opener.

Also, these teams have a combined 22-8 O/U record when these starters take the mound; however, that intel is baked into the projected total and I expect Maeda to give the Twins a quality start Thursday.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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