The Los Angeles Angels (58-58) and Houston Astros (66-50) begin a 3-game series at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Angels vs. Astros and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 7-3
Los Angeles enters on a 2-game win streak, including a 4-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants Wednesday, although it lost 5 of 7 games on a homestand. The Angels now head out on a 6-game road trip. They have been outscored 61-49 by Houston in their 10 games played this season. Los Angeles allows the 10th most runs per game on the road in MLB (4.81).
Houston returns home after going 4-3 on a 7-game road trip. The Astros are averaging over 6 runs per game against the Angels in 2023 and are 24-13 against the AL West.
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Angels at Astros projected starters
LHP Reid Detmers vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Detmers (2-8, 4.78 ERA) will make his 21st start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 105 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-7 home loss vs. Seattle Mariners last Friday
- 2023 away splits: 0-5, 5.49 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 24 ER), .250 OBA in 8 starts
- 2023 vs. Astros: 0-1, 6.55 ERA (11 IP, 8 ER) in 2 starts
Verlander (6-6, 3.11 ERA) will make his 18th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 101 1/3 innings for the Astros and New York Mets.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 3-1 loss at the New York Yankees Saturday in Astros debut
- Last start vs. Angels: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2-0 road loss on April 9, 2022
Angels at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Angels +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Angels at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Angels 2
Moneyline
AVOID.
Verlander should get his first win after returning to the Astros against the Angels Friday, but I’m not putting down 2 units to win 1 especially when it is not a sure thing. I really only like the total in this game.
Run line/Against the spread
SKIP.
The value is just not there with either of these bets. The Astros are giving a run and a half, but to take that I want to get better than +100 odds. Los Angeles won’t keep it within a run to even think about making this bet.
I’m going to look toward the total in this matchup.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).
I’m all in on the Under in this one.
I was looking at the heart of the Angels lineup and they have terrible history against Verlander. 3B Mike Moustakas, 3B Eduardo Escobar, 1B C.J. Cron and DH Shohei Ohtani all have an under .200 batting average against the future Hall of Famer. Verlander has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Angels.
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