Tag: Analytics

Yet the best player in this postseason …

Yet the best player in this postseason might not be any of those players, as amazing as they’ve been and as freakishly talented as they are. The star of these playoffs so far is … a 6-0 point guard who turns 37 today? Believe it. Through eight games, the Point God is putting up video-game stats. Chris Paul is shooting 58.0 percent from the floor with a mind-boggling 67.8 true shooting percentage and handing out six assists for every turnover. Among players still alive in the playoffs, he ranks second only to Butler in postseason PER. The Suns have a 125.5 offensive rating with Paul on the court this postseason and have been outscored by 14.2 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor.

For the season, Phoenix scored 1.13 …

For the season, Phoenix scored 1.13 points per possession when Ayton shot out of a post-up or dished to a teammate who fired — 11th among 82 players with at least 50 post touches, per Second Spectrum. And that’s despite a post game that is a little predictable in some ways, and leans too far toward finesse. Ayton rarely draws fouls on post-ups, or in general; he averages only 2.4 free throw attempts per game, and often defaults to fading or spinning away from the basket. He shoots on about 80% of his post-ups that lead to the end of possessions — the second-highest shot rate among those 82 players with at least 50 post touches, behind only Marvin Bagley III, per Second Spectrum.

But Monday night’s dismal showing was …

But Monday night’s dismal showing was as much a referendum on the woeful state the Sixers find themselves in without Embiid as it was on Harden’s current abilities, because he literally had no space to operate. According to ESPN Stats & Information data, 12 of Harden’s 13 field goal attempts were contested. He also was double-teamed nine times. The average closest defender on Harden’s shot attempts was 3.7 feet away, according to Second Spectrum; it was the third-smallest amount of separation in a game for Harden this season and the smallest amount in a playoff game for Harden in two years.

Harden is making only 33.3 percent of …

Harden is making only 33.3 percent of floaters this year, down from 46.7 percent over the past four seasons. When Harden gets into the paint, he lacks the bounce he had before, and he also now lacks a turbo first step when he drives to the rim. Second Spectrum tracks a stat called “blow bys” when a player drives to the rim. It’s in the name. During Harden’s last season in Houston, he blew by his defender on 48.2 percent of his drives on which he tried to score. This season, he’s down to just 33 percent. Those types of statistical drops have transformed him from a generational outlier into just a regular All-Star.

Even when he gets all the way to the …

Even when he gets all the way to the basket now, the 32-year-old is making just 48.1 percent of his driving layups compared to 55.7 percent over the past four seasons. At this point in his career, teams aren’t as intimidated by Harden as they once were. They don’t panic when he’s isolated. Their defense doesn’t need to offer help quite as hard. And now Embiid, Harden’s security blanket since he arrived in Philly, will miss at least two critical playoff games and maybe more. That means the pressure will shift to Harden to pick up the load and carry the Sixers. The question is whether he still has enough juice to pull it off. Harden is self-aware. Whether his decline is due to lingering hamstring issues, conditioning, or just age, he has adjusted his game to his present condition. Harden passes the ball 68 times per game, up more than 15 per game since he was with the Rockets, according to Second Spectrum.

Harden is generating 1.06 points per …

Harden is generating 1.06 points per isolation, down from 1.14 the past four seasons. It’s just another number that’s indicative of his regressed play. With Embiid out, the light will shine bright on Harden’s play and whether he’s able to pick up the scoring load, but the onus is on more than just him against the Heat. Tyrese Maxey, not Harden, took the most shots besides Embiid in the first round. Following his sensational sophomore season, his game has immediately translated to the playoffs, where he averaged 21.3 points in 42 minutes in the first round.