Tag: analytical preview

Rams Preview: Kupp remains threat despite defenses chipping away at McVay

The Rams have struggled on offense in 2019, but how are defenses taking advantage? What do the Cowboys have to guard against Sunday?

For the second straight week, Dallas suffered a brutal loss in a game that was more lopsided than the score would indicate. Yet again, Dallas dug themselves in an early hole, to the point that Chicago had approximately a 75% win probability at halftime. As a result, the Bears keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Cowboys face a similar situation in Week 15.

This season, the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears have been quite comparable. Both have seen their young quarterbacks struggle despite talented supporting casts and offensive-minded head coaches, and they’ve largely been carried by their defensive capabilities. But coming out of 2018, not many would have predicted the Rams’ offense to descend in such a sharp manner.

Sean McVay took the league by storm, and in a league built on copy-catting, completely altered the archetype for what franchises sought in head-coaching candidates. Time will tell if this lasts as more than just a fad, but for now, it’s clear that McVay’s 2019 offense is a shell of its 2018 self.

I’ve always been of the mindset that greatness depends not only on initial aptitude, but an ability to grow and evolve. In a multi-billion dollar industry, if you’re able to find initial success, that’s a damn fine achievement. But maintaining success is what builds a legacy. So when others take note of your accomplishment, you can bet the house that they’re going to study every possible configuration to break that success.

With that in mind, I wondered how NFL defenses attempted to stop the Rams in 2018, and how that might have changed going into 2019. I’m a numbers nerd and not a film grinder, so I had to rely on what I know. Using data from the SIS DataHub, I was able to identify one interesting difference. The Rams typically operate from 1-1 personnel: that is, 3 wide receivers, 1 running back, and 1 tight end. In 2018, when Los Angeles lined up in 1-1 personnel on first down, defenses ran some combination of Cover 3, Cover 4 or Cover 6 about 48% of the time. In 2019, under the same conditions, defenses are now running those zone coverages 63% of the time.

Running a more zone-heavy scheme against the Rams 1-1 personnel would do two things: (1) keeping more players deep would hopefully limit opportunities for big-plays through the passing game, and (2) it would allow defenders to be more active in stopping the Rams potent rushing attack. If successful, we’d see a stark difference in the first-down play results from 2018 to 2019. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened.

In case it’s been a minute since you’ve had a statistics course, what you’re looking at are box-plots.

The idea is to visualize the yards gained on each first-down play for the Rams, based on the play type. The lines in the middle of the boxes represent the median, while the bottom and top of the boxes represent the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. The lines on the ends stretch to the smallest and largest values, while points represent plays that are exceptionally rare given the rest of the plays.

Immediately we should notice that for both play types, the median value is lower in 2019 than the 2018 counterpart.

This would indicate the typical first-down play isn’t yielding as high of a return. On top of that, we see that the 75th percentile (top of the box) and the top of the line reach higher in 2018 than 2019, which suggests that the 2019 offense is also lacking the explosiveness we saw last year. It’s unlikely that all of this is attributable to a simple increase in zone-coverage, but it’s possibly one factor in the offensive struggles for Los Angeles.

Despite some of these difficulties, there have still been a few matchups in which Los Angeles has shown glimpses of their ceiling. And if Mitch Trubisky can right the ship enough to beat Dallas, you can be sure Jared Goff is capable of the same.

A key component to stopping the Rams offense will be shutting down Goff’s safety-net, Cooper Kupp.

On the X-axis above, we have the EPA Allowed per Slot Target (i.e. teams to the left defend slot receivers well, teams to the right don’t). On the Y-axis, we see the number of points the Rams scored against said opponent. It’s not hard to see the value Cooper Kupp brings to the Rams offense. He operates primarily out of the slot, and the Rams’ best offensive showings have generally come against teams who struggle in the slot.

So why is this significant? The Cowboys have allowed the ninth-highest EPA per Slot Target. In reality, Cowboys fans could probably have guessed this after watching Cole Beasley on Thanksgiving. Dallas desperately needs to learn from the past, or Kupp will roast them as well.

If you haven’t already, I strongly encourage you to go read Dan Morse’s latest article.

He breaks down some key insights regarding the Cowboys offensive struggles, and specifically where they manifest in the game. His article got me thinking, and so I launched my own inquiry into the volatile nature of this Cowboys squad. My goal was to retroactively observe the Cowboys win probabilities, and compare the games that resulted in wins with those that resulted in losses. What I found confirmed my suspicions.

When it comes to this Cowboys squad, the first-half generally tells the tale. That is, when Dallas has the higher win probability at the half, they’ve managed to hold on and secure the victory. But when they’ve been trailing, they’ve had a much harder time digging out of the hole.

This isn’t entirely surprising, but it does stress the importance of Dallas establishing their presence early, and seizing control of the game-script. Thankfully, despite Dallas’s recent struggles, the remainder of the NFC East also decided to take 2019 off. That isn’t something the Cowboys can rest their laurels on going forward, but for now, it’ll do. With only three games left, the Cowboys control their fate, and that’s all any fan can ask for at this point.

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Even Jason Garrett can use these analytics showing who the Bills really are

A look into how the Bills have accomplished their 8-3 record, whether it’s fool’s gold or legitimate, and what Josh Allen is doing so well.

Despite it being the week of Thanksgiving, Sunday’s result didn’t leave Cowboys fans with a feeling of gratitude. The field became a quagmire in the midst of a nasty rainstorm, and it made life difficult for both quarterbacks and offenses. To this point in the season, the Dallas offense has been more reliant on Dak Prescott’s ability to make plays, and thus the weather better served the New England defense as it mitigated Prescott’s potential impact.

Games like Sunday’s contest demonstrate the importance of having every possible edge a team can find. Uncontrollable elements like the weather can level a matchup in unexpected ways, and thus its important to maximize the value of your own decision-making. In light of this loss, and perhaps with the rise of the Baltimore Ravens, Jason Garrett has come under scrutiny for the lack of usage of analytics in the team’s decision-making. Baltimore is the latest team to grab headlines for this usage, but New England has been at the forefront for the majority of their dynastic run and now Dallas will face another analytically-inclined franchise in the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo comes to town holding an 8-3 record, and the top Wild-Card spot in the AFC. Due to historic-level production, the New England and San Francisco defenses have garnered the attention of most headlines. But the Buffalo defense has played a significant role in their record to this point.

The truth, however, is that they’ve likely benefited from some weaker offenses.

Here we see the EPA per play that a defense has allowed (Y-axis) vs the EPA per play the offenses generated against other teams (X-axis).

The idea is to compare a team’s defensive production against their quality of competition.

And as you can see, Buffalo’s opponents have been quite abysmal overall. In fairness, Buffalo has performed well against those opponents. But its safe to say that their defense has been largely untested. The Dallas offense should theoretically give a better indication of what Buffalo’s defense is capable of achieving.

Because their opponents have been so appalling, it’s hard to glean what’s real from Buffalo’s defensive statistics. However, a player worth noting is cornerback Tre’Davious White and his lock-down potential.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, White has allowed a 47.9 passer rating on passes his way, ranked second among all cornerbacks. He’s a player who’s shown the capability of shadowing a team’s top wide receiver, so it should be interesting to see how Buffalo chooses to deploy him.

On the opposite side of the ball, it’s hard not to talk about the Buffalo Bills without talking about their young quarterback, Josh Allen. It seems fitting Allen comes to town in a week where analytics was featured as a prominent discussion point. Entering last year’s draft, Allen was the prototypical case in skills vs stats. From a physical standpoint, it’s hard not to be wowed by his talent, as he blends an unprecedented amount of arm strength and mobility. Despite this though, things never quite came together at Wyoming, and many wondered whether Allen’s physical tools would translate to success on the NFL field.

Allen put these physical tools on display immediately as a rookie, but we also saw his rawness play a role. That said, Allen’s development as a quarterback is rather impressive when you observe his Next-Gen passing charts from 2018 and 2019.

In his rookie campaign, it was clear how much Allen believed in his arm, as he routinely attacked downfield, and found great success attacking the seams. He did, however, struggle to attack the perimeter of the field. But in 2019, we see Allen utilizing the entire field, without really sacrificing much of his downfield shots. It’s almost downright laughable that Allen has the ability to uncork a pass to any point on this chart. As a defense, it means having to defend every level on a given play, and can prove costly if there’s a lapse in focus.

Arm strength of Allen’s caliber is certainly rare, but it’s the combination of strength and mobility that truly sets Allen apart. Common sense would dictate players should be keenly aware of their strengths, and stick to those as much as possible. This is certainly the case with Allen, as no quarterback has relied more heavily on his legs this year.

The chart above shows that about 12% of Allen’s successful plays have come due to his rushing ability, while about 9% of his dropbacks resulted in a scramble overall. While Allen has shown development as a passer, he still likes to use his legs, and can certainly do so if unaccounted for by the defense.

Buffalo’s schedule to this point may have inflated their overall record, but they’re still dangerous enough to cause trouble for a team, especially on a short week. Dallas will need to regroup quickly if they hope to avoid an unpleasant Thanksgiving. But with a holiday game, the eyes of America will be tuned in, and that presents a unique opportunity for Dak Prescott to vault forward in the MVP discussion.

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