Americans plan to bet $15 billion on the NCAA tournament, and they’ll waste much of it on Kentucky

There are better ways to blow your money.

Americans will bet a whole lot of money on the NCAA tournament this year. That’s not a surprise.

To be exact, 68 million American adults (26 percent) plan to wager $15.5 billion on the men’s tournament, according to a survey from the American Gaming Association.

More surprising is the team is receiving the majority of those bets.

According to the AGA, Kentucky leads the way with a 9 percent share of bets to win the national title. If you ever needed evidence of people blindly betting on name brands, here you go.

Yes, Kentucky is a blueblood program, but it isn’t national title good anymore. The Wildcats aren’t even ranked. They’re a 6-seed in the tournament, and only one of those has ever won the whole thing.

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This isn’t driven by homers either. Sports betting isn’t even legal in Kentucky. Nor is it legal in Texas, where the second most bet-on team resides.

Texas A&M — a 7-seed — is expected to receive 8% of bets, followed by Gonzaga, UCLA and Alabama at 6 percent each. Smells like a lot of wasted money on all but the last two to me.

According to the survey, 18 million more American adults plan to wager on March Madness compared to the Super Bowl, but they’re expected to spend about half a billion dollars less.

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Here’s the record-breaking amount of bettors expected to wager on the 2023 Super Bowl

20% of the adult population is expected to place a bet.

It’s going to be a record year of Super Bowl betting if new figures from the American Gaming Association turn out to be true. With the expansion of legal sports betting, they’ll likely be close.

According to the AGA, 50.4 million American adults (20%) are expected to bet on Super Bowl LVII between the Kanas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, a 61% increase over last year’s estimate. They’re expected to wager $16 billion, which is more than double last year’s projection.

And for the first time ever, traditional Super Bowl wagers — via online sportsbook, retail sportsbook or bookie — are expected to pass casual wagers (bets with friends via pool, squares, etc.).

The projections say 30 million adults will place a traditional bet, while 28 million will bet casually. Digging deeper, a 38% majority of all bets are expected to be placed online.

Betting is apparently making the game more interesting for viewers, as 34% of NFL fans said the expansion of legal gambling has made watching the games more exciting.

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The AGA’s projection of $510 billion in illegal betting by Americans should be taken with a grain of salt

Illegal gambling exists. But to what extent?

The American Gaming Association wants you to believe it stands for something bigger than making money. In fact, it needs you to believe it has a noble purpose. Lest you mistake it for an organization whose sole responsibility is to make the rich heads of the gaming industry richer.

So, as the industry seeks to continue the expansion of legal sports betting across the United States, the AGA has positioned legalization as the solution to the threats posed by illegal gambling. It’s the best leverage the industry has in lobbying lawmakers.

The latest example is a report the AGA released Wednesday called Sizing the Illegal and Unregulated Gaming Markets in the United States. According to the report, Americans gamble a staggering amount of money with illegal and unregulated operators. And this illegal gambling costs the industry and state governments billions of dollars.

Based primarily on a survey of a more than 5,000 Americans and their gambling habits, as well as existing data on gaming participation rates and the known size of the legal market, the findings estimate that Americans bet more than $510 billion a year with illegal and unregulated operators. This costs the legal industry $44.2 billion in gaming revenue and state governments $13.3 in lost tax revenue.

While there’s no doubt an illegal market exists and keeps legal operators and states from gaining maximum profits, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

Just a week ago, a New York Times investigation found that previous AGA projections of illicit bets by Americans — up to $400 billion each year — were unreliable. Now, the association’s estimate is up to over $510 billion, which also increases the projection of tax revenue states are missing out on.

“Illegal and unregulated gambling is a scourge on our society, taking advantage of vulnerable consumers, skirting regulatory obligations and robbing communities of critical tax revenue for infrastructure, education and more,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said in a release. “We have always known that the illegal and unregulated market is expansive, but this report illuminates just how pervasive it is.”

However, state tax revenues were also inflated in the past, according to The Times. In the 14 jurisdictions that allow mobile sports betting at tax rates in the range anticipated by the AGA, tax revenues over the last 12 months have been nearly $150 million below their combined $560 million projections.

Kansas was a state not included that group because the state’s lawmakers reportedly halved tax rates on gambling revenue…at the industry’s behest. The state collected just $271,000 in taxes on $350 million of bets this fall.

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The AGA even includes a disclaimer in its report that some of the information contains projections based on the association’s expectations of future events that could turn out to be incorrect.

But bigger than any of that is this: the AGA isn’t a party without something to gain from the eradication of illegal gambling. That doesn’t automatically make its goal a negative one. But it does make it one with bias. And that’s why the report can’t be trusted as a single authority on the benefits of legalizing sports betting.

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The American Gaming Association’s clash with the New York Times, explained

An explanation of the Times investigation and the AGA’s response.

The American Gaming Association issued a fiery response Monday to the recent New York Times investigation on the rapid growth of legal sports betting, saying there are “several mischaracterizations” in the reporting.

As part of its four-part series released Sunday, the Times highlighted some of the improprieties that have occurred during the expansion of legal sports betting, at the expense of states and at-risk gamblers.

Among many items, the Times found:

  • At least 12 states allowed gambling companies and their affiliates to begin operating on a temporary basis before undergoing full licensing reviews.
  • Gaming lobbyists dazzled state lawmakers with tax projections that have turned about to be inflated, and unreliable data about a sprawling underworld of illegal gambling.
  • State gambling regulators required few protections for consumers and dedicated minimal funds to combat addiction.
  • Lawmakers allocated minimal funding to oversee sports betting and assigned oversight to state bureaucracies with previously narrower responsibilities.
  • Regulators allowed the gambling industry to shape regulations to police its own compliance. Punishment for breaking those state rules has often been light or nonexistent.

The Times also specifically mentioned the AGA on several occasions, pointing to its apparent hypocritical position on responsible gaming. The AGA, which represents the gambling industry, argued against banning ads on sports betting during live games in Massachusetts and against federal legislation to create a national self-exclusion list for people who didn’t want access to sports betting sites.

In addition, betting companies have partnered with at least eight universities despite the AGA’s “Responsible Marketing Code” saying sports betting should not be advertised on college campuses.

In its response, the AGA said it is “heavily regulated by the federal government” and that “thousands of dedicated professionals across legal gaming jurisdictions set & enforce regulations.”

 

According to the NY Times, calls to the national hotline for gambling problems rose by 43 percent last year.

The AGA said research shows that past-year sports bettors saw more responsible gaming information in the past 12 months than in the previous year.

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Analysts predict Americans will wager a record $1.8 billion on the 2022 World Cup

“This will certainly be the most bet-upon soccer event ever in the U.S.”

American adults plan to bet a total of $1.8 billion on the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup, according to a survey from the American Gaming Association.

The survey estimates that 29% of American adults who plan to watch the World Cup intend to also bet on the tournament. That comes to a total of 20.5 million people, or 8% of the adult population.

“As the first World Cup with widespread availability of legal sports betting, this will certainly be the most bet-upon soccer event ever in the U.S.,” said AGA senior vice president Casey Clark. “With more than half of all American adults having access to legal betting options in their home market, legal sports betting will deepen American fan engagement in the most-watched sporting event in the world.”

According to the AGA, 72% of U.S. World Cup bettors plan to place traditional bets — either online, with a bookie or at a physical sportsbook. This outpaces other major sporting events where people have more casual options to wager, like March Madness brackets or Super Bowl squares.

Unfortunately, too much of that money is being wasted on the U.S. team, which has +10000 odds to win the tournament at BetMGM.

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