Should you bet on the Green Bay Packers to win Super Bowl LIV?

Previewing the Green Bay Packers’ Super Bowl LIV chances, with NFL betting odds, picks, futures and best bets.

Should you bet anyone to win the Super Bowl? That’s a personal question I suppose. Some would say no. I’d definitely argue yes. In the spirit of trying to break the BetMGM book, let’s take a look at the Green Bay Packers’ case to win Super Bowl LIV.

NFL futures odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Green Bay Packers playoff futures


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NFC Champion: +400

First things first, can the Packers win the NFC championship? I’d argue the best value to win the NFC is the Packers. Considering they are the No. 2 seed entering the playoffs, which earned them a bye in the first round and home-field advantage against every NFC opponent aside from the San Francisco 49ers, isn’t there inherent value in taking the Packers (the third favorite to make it out of the NFC)?

(Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch – USA TODAY Sports)

Lambeau Field is arguably the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL. Factor in winter conditions and beating the Cheeseheads at Lambeau in January is a rare feat. Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers became the Packers’ starting quarterback), Green Bay has the best record in the NFL as a home favorite at 52-33-3.

Also, the Packers are 28-15 straight up in the Rodgers era when having a rest advantage over opponents (sixth-best in the NFL). Given these factors, and their future first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback. PACKERS (+400) to win the NFC is the best value on the board.

Super Bowl: +800

Banking on our Packers +400 bet slip to win the NFC title to cash, what are the chances the PACKERS (+800) win Super Bowl LIV? Many consider the Packers an overrated team heading into the playoffs, but they’ve consistently exceeded expectations this season. The definition of expectations made for a sports team is how they perform against sportsbooks’ odds.

The Packers beat their projected regular-season NFL win total of nine (13-3 straight up) and they had the sixth-best record against the spread in the NFL (10-6 ATS). Winning and appearing in only one Super Bowl in the Rodgers era can be viewed as a disappointment for the Packers, but their 10-5-1 ATS record in playoff games is the second-best in the NFL since 2008 (minimum of three games played).

(Photo credit: Harrison Barden – USA TODAY Sports)

Rodgers isn’t having his typical MVP-caliber season but the Packers should still be considered a dual-threat offense. Rodgers’ down-year included 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a 62% completion rate. But running back Aaron Jones has provided Rodgers with a quarterback’s best friend with a strong run game.

Jones ran for 1,084 yards and tied with an NFL-leading 16 rushing touchdowns. His production is key to the Packers offense; the Packers won all five of the games in which Jones ran for 100-plus yards. Rodgers’ favorite target—WR Davante Adams—missed four games but is healthy to end the season, and he can get a little healthier because of the Packers first-round bye. Adams got rolling at the end of the regular season, catching 27 balls with 312 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the final three games of the season.

The Packers defense is ranked ninth in opponent’s points scored. The last time the Packers were in the top-10 in that category was in 2010 (ranked second) when they won Super Bowl XLV. Their defense is led by two legit pass rushers—both added this past offseason—in DE Preston Smith (12 sacks) and DE Za’Darius Smith (13.5 sacks and NFL-leader in pressures). Based on the Packers’ ability to play complementary football and the wide-open landscape of the NFL entering the postseason, take the PACKERS (+800) to win the whole damn thing.

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Cardinals’ Josh Shaw bet against own team and lost, per report

The strange saga of Arizona Cardinals safety Josh Shaw has taken another interesting turn. The safety, who was suspended Friday through at least the 2020 season for gambling on NFL games, bet against his own team, according to an ESPN report. From …

The strange saga of Arizona Cardinals safety Josh Shaw has taken another interesting turn.

The safety, who was suspended Friday through at least the 2020 season for gambling on NFL games, bet against his own team, according to an ESPN report.

From the ESPN report: "A three-team parlay that included an Arizona Cardinals game led the NFL in part to suspend Cardinals defensive back Josh Shaw for violating the league's gambling policy, multiple sources told ESPN. Shaw, who has been on injured reserve in August and has not played since signing with the Cardinals last March, made the parlay bet on Sunday, Nov. 10 at a Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas, according to the sources. The bet was on the second halves of three Week 10 games, the sources said, and included the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were leading the Cardinals 17-13 at halftime. The Buccaneers were 1-point favorites for the second half. They failed to cover the second-half spread but went on to defeat the Cardinals 30-27. Shaw's bet lost, according to the sources."

Shaw, a fifth-year player out of USC, has been on injured reserve since Aug. 25 because of a shoulder injury. He signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals in March, and will become a free agent following the season.

An NFL investigation uncovered that no evidence indicating any inside information was used or that any game was compromised, according to a statement released by the NFL announcing his suspension, adding there was no evidence "suggesting any awareness by teammates, coaches or other players of his betting activity."

"The continued success of the NFL depends directly on each of us doing everything necessary to safeguard the integrity of the game and the reputations of all who participate in the league," Commissioner Roger Goodell said in the statement. "At the core of this responsibility is the longstanding principle that betting on NFL games, or on any element of a game, puts at risk the integrity of the game, damages public confidence in the NFL, and is forbidden under all circumstances.

"If you work in the NFL in any capacity, you may not bet on NFL football." 

Shaw can petition for reinstatement on or after Feb. 15, 2021. 

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Shaw went to a casino in Las Vegas this fall and "placed sports bets for the (first) time based on misinterpreted understanding of the Supreme Court ruling."

He flew to New York immediately upon notice of his suspension to meet with the league, and he has cooperated fully. "He considers it an innocent mistake with a severe outcome," Rapoport tweeted. 

The suspension is also notable for its rareness.

The last time an NFL player was suspended for betting was Baltimore Colts quarterback Art Schlichter in 1983, according to the Associated Press. He was reinstated the following year.

The most recent disciplinary action was in 1996, when Ravens backup quarterback Jon Stark was placed on leave with pay while the league investigated, according to the Associated Press.

This is also not Shaw's first suspension, although the previous instance came in college.

During his senior season at USC, Shaw was suspended after lying about how he injured his ankles.

Shaw had originally told school he got hurt jumping from a balcony into a pool to save a drowning child.

Later, it was revealed that he had jumped from a balcony to avoid police, who had been called to investigate an argument between Shaw and his girlfriend. He did not face domestic-violence charges. 

In 2015, the Bengals selected Shaw in the fourth round with the 120th pick of the draft. 

 

Mike Norvell gets No. 18 to American Athletic title game by staying true to gambling nature

The biggest play of the most important game of this historic Memphis football season was about Mike Norvell staying true to Mike Norvell. Because after he went for it when he could have padded the lead and failed, he went for it again. He dialed up …

The biggest play of the most important game of this historic Memphis football season was about Mike Norvell staying true to Mike Norvell.

Because after he went for it when he could have padded the lead and failed, he went for it again. He dialed up a trick play that was equal parts aggressive and successful. That was everything Norvell has proven to be during his four years as the Memphis head coach.

Tailback Patrick Taylor took the hand-off from quarterback Brady White, then Taylor flipped the ball to wide receiver Kedarian Jones, who then tossed the ball back to White.

Streaking down the field was wide receiver Damonte Coxie, who out-leaped a Cincinnati defender for a 46-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth quarter that pushed the Tigers' lead back to double digits.

Never mind the stakes of the situation. Never mind what conventional wisdom would have suggested. 

This was the defining blow in the Tigers' 34-24 win over Cincinnati on Friday at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, even though this roller coaster of a game was far from over.

There was still a Memphis fumble recovery overturned by replay, a 51-yard third-and-15 conversion by Cincinnati the very next play, and a touchdown to draw the Bearcats within a field goal again. There was still an interception by White and another defensive stand by a Memphis defense that was gouged at times in the first half. 

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But all of it happened because of that one play, because Norvell stayed aggressive when other coaches might not have.

It's why Memphis is now in the midst of the first 11-win season in program history. It's why the Tigers will play in their third-straight American Athletic Conference championship game and they'll get to host it next Saturday at the Liberty Bowl against this very same Cincinnati team.

It's why, ultimately, this program is just one more win away from playing in the biggest bowl game this city has ever seen. 

But that bowl game, that one last win, it won't validate Norvell. That's already done. Friday was just more confirmation.

All you had to do was listen to the thunderous "Let's go Tigers" chant that broke out with less than four minutes to go, right before Antonio Gibson iced this game with one last touchdown run.

So as Memphis went through a muted postgame celebration, it seemed like ages ago these two teams traded questionable coaching decisions in the third quarter with the Tigers nursing a 20-17 lead.

First, Norvell called timeout facing third-and-1 from the Cincinnati 15-yard-line, watched tailback Patrick Taylor Jr. lose a yard and elected to go for it on fourth-and-2 instead of settling for a short field goal. 

White's bootleg pass was incomplete and momentum was firmly with Cincinnati all of a sudden.

But Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell, facing fourth-and-1 from the Memphis 17-yard line, responded to Norvell's aggressiveness by leaving his offense on the field rather than attempt a game-tying field goal. The Memphis defense responded, stuffing Cincinnati during a second half that was dominating as the first half was worrisome. 

Another Memphis rout seemed in the offing when this regular-season finale began. Defensive back Chris Claybrooks took the opening kickoff 94 yards to the house, and Memphis made the AAC’s best defense look like every other defense it has faced in recent weeks and quickly built a 17-3 lead.

But Cincinnati proved to be up to the challenge, which should not have been, in retrospect, much of a surprise considering the Bearcats had just one loss — to Ohio State — coming into this game. There’s a reason Fickell and Norvell are both always listed on those coaching hot boards whenever a Power Five conference job opens up. 

So there was Cincinnati during a second quarter in which it methodically took apart the Tigers’ defense and got back into the game. Bearcats redshirt freshman Ben Bryant, making his first career start, completed 11 of 12 passes, dissecting the Memphis secondary during two touchdowns that took a combined 26 plays, gained a combined 165 yards and ate up 11:30 of game clock before halftime. 

By halftime, a very clear message had been sent. Getting back to the AAC championship game was not going to be easy.

Two teams playing in back-to-back weeks with a league title hanging in the balance has happened three times before, including each of the past two seasons.

In 2012, Stanford beat UCLA by 18 in their regular-season finale but needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win the Pac-12 championship game. 

In 2017, Boise State and Fresno State played twice in a row. Fresno State won the regular-season finale and Boise State came back the next week and won the Mountain West Conference championship game.

Last year, meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State and UAB went through this and it's the only time both games were played in the same location (Murfreesboro). In this instance, MTSU won the regular-season finale and UAB turned around and won the Conference USA championship game. 

Which is all just to point out that Friday's seesaw affair might not be an indication of what's to come next Saturday. 

But Norvell will still be Norvell, so you have to like the Tigers' chances. 

 

 

NFL suspends Cardinals cornerback Josh Shaw through 2020 season for betting on games

The National Football League announced it is suspending Arizona Cardinals cornerback Josh Shaw through at least the entirety of the 2020 season for betting on NFL games. The league said it uncovered that Shaw bet on NFL games “on multiple occasions …

The National Football League announced it is suspending Arizona Cardinals cornerback Josh Shaw through at least the entirety of the 2020 season for betting on NFL games.

The league said it uncovered that Shaw bet on NFL games “on multiple occasions this season,” but investigation found no evidence indicating that Shaw used any insider information, or that any game was compromised in any way.

The league also said it couldn’t find evidence that indicated that Shaw’s teammates, coaches, or any other players were aware of his betting activity.

"The continued success of the NFL depends directly on each of us doing everything necessary to safeguard the integrity of the game and the reputations of all who participate in the league,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said Friday in a statement.

“At the core of this responsibility is the longstanding principle that betting on NFL games, or on any element of a game, puts at risk the integrity of the game, damages public confidence in the NFL, and is forbidden under all circumstances."

The Cardinals had signed Shaw in March, but he landed on injured reserve after suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason opener against the Los Angeles Chargers on August 8.

The NFL said Shaw may petition for reinstatement to the league on or after Feb. 15, 2021. He may appeal the suspension within three days from Friday, according to the collective bargaining agreement jointly agreed to by the NFL and NFL Players Association.

This isn’t the first time Shaw has come under scrutiny. In August 2014, while he was a member of USC’s football program and shortly after he had been named a captain as a senior, Shaw admitted to lying about a story in which he had said he injured his ankles while jumping into a pool to save his drowning nephew. He later revealed that got hurt when he jumped from a balcony in Los Angeles.

A 2015 fourth-round selection for the Cincinnati Bengals, Shaw, 27, has appeared in 55 games with the Bengals, Chiefs and Buccaneers.

 

 

Chargers at Chiefs: Kansas City favored in Mexico City

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) hook up for the first time this season, facing off on Monday night at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Chiefs vs. Chargers: Week 11 preview, betting trends …

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) hook up for the first time this season, facing off on Monday night at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.

Chiefs vs. Chargers: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes


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  • The Chargers are coming off an extended break, having played on Thursday night in Week 10, a 26-24 loss to the Oakland Raiders.
  • Chargers QB Philip Rivers threw three interceptions in that game. He had five touchdown passes and three interceptions in two games against the Chiefs last season.
  • The Chargers have the eighth-best scoring defense in the league (points per game). The Chiefs are 20th.
  • The Chiefs average more than 28 points per game on offense. The Chargers average fewer than 21.
  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had 446 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans in his first game back after missing two games with an injury.

Chargers at Chiefs: Key injuries

Mahomes is healthy again and will play. DE Emmanuel Ogbah (pectoral) is out and will probably miss the rest of the season. OT Eric Fisher (groin) should return to the lineup for the first time since Week 2, while OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) should be in the lineup for the first time since Week 8.

Chargers RT Sam Tevi (knee) is expected to miss this week and more. LT Russell Okung (groin) is questionable.

Chargers at Chiefs: Odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Chiefs 38, Chargers 23

Moneyline ( ?)

With Mahomes healthy and his offensive line returning, the offense should be overwhelming again, making any bet other than the Chiefs seem like a waste of money. At – 182, it won’t gain much profit ($5.49 profit on a $10 bet), but taking the Chargers at +150 doesn’t seem to be smart with the money, as the game probably won’t be that close.

Against the Spread ( ?)

The Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points (+105). The Chiefs are healthy on the offensive line so Mahomes can be dynamic. The Chargers might be without their two starting tackles. L.A. has struggled to score points, so expect a two-score win for the home team. Take the CHIEFS -4.5 (+105).

Over/Under ( ?)

The total is set at 52.5 points. The Chiefs should put up points. The question is whether the Chargers will do the same. Rivers is savvy enough that if the Chiefs jump out to a big lead, he will rally his team for late points. This game should easily hit the OVER (-115).

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