The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1, 5-1 SEC) take their show on the road following their first loss of the season when they play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-5, 2-4) at noon ET Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss.
Alabama at Mississippi State: preview, betting trends and notes
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- Alabama has been a 20+ point favorite over the Bulldogs five times since 2008. Alabama was won all five games and covered the spread in four of them.
- Mississippi State is 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five games.
- Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against SEC teams.
- Mississippi State has lost the last 11 games vs. Alabama.
- Alabama’s defense has struggled in recent weeks and is now 30th in the country in yards allowed, giving up 204 passing yards and 132 rushing yards a game.
Alabama at Mississippi State: Key injuries
The biggest question being asked this week is whether Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will play. The word out of Tuscaloosa is that he will, but Nick Saban may have a quick hook for him after the QB looked far from 100 percent against LSU last weekend.
Alabama at Mississippi State: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, Nov. 14 at 1 p.m.
Prediction
Alabama 49, Mississippi State 17
Moneyline (?)
As expected, Alabama remains a huge moneyline favorite to win straight up (-1000), while Mississippi State is getting a big number on its side of the line (+625). Typically in games such as this, most gamblers won’t jump on either side because of the lack of return for Alabama and the unlikeliness Mississippi State can hang with the Crimson Tide for 60 minutes.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Alabama to win would return a profit of $1.
Against the Spread (?)
The line has fluctuated by 17½ and 21½ on different betting sites, but the point is expected to be at 20 when game time arrives. (ALABAMA would be laying 20 likely at -115 and Mississippi State getting 20 at -105.) This is a statement game for an Alabama team that is currently outside the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings. ‘Bama needs to finish strong to keep any hope of climbing back into one of those four spots.
LAY THE POINTS.
Over/Under (?)
The Bulldogs have one of the worst defenses in the SEC, having given up 56 points to Auburn and 49 points to Texas A&M this season. With an over/under of 60.5 (-106 for the over, -115 on the under), the likelihood of Alabama hitting 50 or more points by itself is probable, with Mississippi State likely to score when the starters are pulled in the second half. TAKE THE OVER.
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