The second-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (26-6) face the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins (20-9) in an East Region Sweet 16 game Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ legendary Hinkle Fieldhouse and will be aired on TBS. Below, we analyze the Alabama-UCLA odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
The Crimson Tide enter on an 8-game win streak. Alabama beat 15th-seeded Iona 68-55 in the first round and No. 10 seed Maryland 96-77 in the second round, going 1-1 ATS. The Tide didn’t cover as 17-point favorites in the opener but covered as 6-point favorites against the Terps. For the season, G Jaden Shackelford leads four ‘Bama players in double figures with 14.3 PPG. In the tourney, the sophomore is averaging a team-high 15.5 PPG and senior G John Petty Jr. has 15.0 PPG.
UCLA entered the Big Dance on a 4-game skid and had to play an extra tourney game as it drew a First Four assignment. Behind sophomore guards Johnny Juzang (22.3 PPG last three games) and Jamie Jaquez Jr. (16.7 PPG), the Bruins are 3-0 SU/ATS in the NCAA Tournament, winning twice as underdogs. They needed overtime to beat Michigan State 86-80 as 2.5-point dogs in their opener, followed with a 73-62 first-round victory over 3.5-point favorite BYU and, as 5.5-point favorites, squashed the dreams of “Cinderella” Abilene Christian 67-47 in the second round.
Alabama is ranked No. 5 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. UCLA, which finished fourth in the Pac-12, hasn’t been ranked since the week of Feb. 8, when it was No. 24.
The winner advances to an Elite Eight matchup Tuesday against either top-seeded Michigan or No. 4 seed Florida State, who also play Sunday.
Alabama vs. UCLA: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Alabama -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | UCLA +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Against the spread/ATS: Alabama -6.5 (-110) | UCLA +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Alabama vs. UCLA: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Alabama 76, UCLA 72
Money line (ML)
AVOID. Backing ‘Bama (-250) will cost 2½ times your potential profit, which is not worth the risk.
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Against the spread (ATS)
UCLA +6.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. Excluding SEC runner-up and Sweet 16 team Arkansas, UCLA will be the toughest opponent Alabama will have faced up to this point.
Expect a game of runs that turns into a nip-and-tuck battle down the stretch. In the end, ‘Bama will prevail and move on to the Elite Eight as it’s the better offensive team.
ATS records: Alabama 18-13-1 | UCLA 15-14
Over/Under (O/U)
Back the OVER 145.5 (-110) with a HALF-UNIT play. Alabama has averaged 80.4 PPG across its last five contests, which were all elimination games, either in the SEC Tournament or the NCAA tourney.
In its last game, Alabama scored 96 points against defensive-minded Maryland. Before that outing, the Terrapins had only allowed 64.6 PPG for the season.
O/U records: Alabama 15-17 | UCLA 16-13
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 73-65-1 | 34-36 | +2.175 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 93-79-1 | 46-39 | +12.5 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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