Alabama Crimson Tide vs. North Carolina Tar Heels odds predictions pick betting line spread

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The No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels (4-3) welcome the No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) to Dean E. Smith Center Wednesday for the SEC/ACC Men’s Challenge. Tip is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Alabama vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Alabama is No. 12 and North Carolina is No. 22 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll.

The Crimson Tide lost 83-81 to the No. 10 Oregon Ducks in the Players Era Festival Championship Saturday, closing as a 7-point neutral-court favorite. They had won their previous 3 games, taking down the No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini, the No. 18 Houston Cougars the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Alabama is 2-3 against the spread (ATS) away from home and 3-5 ATS on the season.

The Tar Heels have lost 2 straight and are coming off a 94-91 overtime loss to the Michigan State Spartans Wednesday, closing as a 5-point neutral-court favorite. North Carolina has a 3-point road loss to the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks and a 13-point neutral-court loss to the No. 2 Auburn Tigers. It is 1-1 ATS at home and 3-4 ATS on the season.

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Alabama at North Carolina odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:40 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Alabama +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | North Carolina -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Alabama +2.5 (-115) | North Carolina -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 175.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Alabama at North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 88, Alabama 84

Moneyline

PASS.

The Dean E. Smith Center should be rocking, and North Carolina should come out on top. At -145, it isn’t worth playing on the moneyline over the marginal spread.

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Against the spread

BET NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105).

North Carolina has lost to the best 2 teams in the country, but it has yet to play either at home. This is its first top-25 home battle, and it should have a significant advantage in front of a strong crowd. It is 2-0 straight up and 1-1 ATS at home.

The Crimson Tide have lost 2 of their last 5 games and lost their lone true road game, an 87-78 defeat at the Purdue Boilermakers. Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 contests. Its No. 1 scoring option, G Mark Sears, is shooting just 35.1% from the field.

Back the home side and take NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-105).

Over/Under

BET OVER 175.5 (-105).

Both teams are captained by guards and like to play at an ultra-fast pace. The Crimson Tide have scored 81 points or more in 4 straight games and have hit at least 95 points twice with all 4 games against Power 4 sides. Alabama is 3-1-1 O/U against Power 4 opponents.

The Tar Heels are 6-1 O/U and have scored at least 91 points twice in their last 3 games. They are 3-1 O/U in games with a single-digit spread. North Carolina has allowed at least 85 points in both top-25 games.

Take OVER 175.5 (-105).

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The 4th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide (23-11) face the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (29-7) Thursday in a West Region Sweet 16 matchup. Tip-off from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles is set for 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook ‘s lines around the Alabama vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

Alabama, ranked No. 18 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, has advanced in the tournament with victories over Charleston and Grand Canyon. In the latter win, a 72-61 triumph covering as 5-point favorites Sunday, the Tide had to battle back from a 3-point deficit with 5:43 remaining.

North Carolina, tabbed as the national No. 4 in the coaches poll, has defeated Wagner and Michigan State. The Tar Heels’ Saturday win over MSU was a sturdy 85-69 job, covering a 4-point spread. Since Feb. 17, UNC is 10-1 with an average margin of victory of 13.1 points.

UA and UNC have met twice in the last 5 years, both times in early-season tournaments on neutral floors. The Tar Heels won in 2019 in a contest played in the Bahamas. In 2022, Alabama nipped North Carolina 103-101 in an overtime contest played in Portland.

Alabama vs. North Carolina odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Alabama +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | North Carolina -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Alabama +4.5 (-110) | North Carolina -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 173.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Alabama vs. North Carolina picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 85, Alabama 82

Moneyline

The lean here is on this being a close game, but UA is 1-9 straight up in its last 10 games as an underdog. Hold off on trying to cash on the Tide outright.

PASS.

Against the spread

The Crimson Tide are 9-5 ATS in non-SEC games.

Alabama looked to have been slumping in late February and early March, but its 2 tournament wins in this West bracket have been impressive.

Figure the public being a tad too high on the Tar Heels. While UNC has some systemic advantages (rebounding, free throws) in what figures to be a contest with a ton of possessions, its recent 3-point defense (39.6% last 3 games, 37.9% since Feb. 26) is a glaring issue against this fast-break, perimeter-launch Alabama 5.

On offense, Carolina can be goaded into taking too many mid-range, sub-optimal shots.

TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE +4.5 (-110).

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Over/Under

Look for solid handles on the basketball at both ends, and figure inside looks for UA — normally a staple to be tougher to come by.

Both teams play fast. The Tide play exceedingly fast. And the only UNC-comparable defense they have seen in the SEC belongs to Tennessee. The O/U went 1-1 across UA and TU games in the regular season. The 2nd game was a drama-free Under; the 1st game hit the Over but only with some statistically unlikely transition and perimeter ball cranked out by the Volunteers.

BACK THE UNDER 173.5 (-110) in this one.

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