The Air Force Falcons (8-3, 4-3 MWC) meet the San Diego State Aztecs (7-4, 5-2) Saturday at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. Kickoff is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Air Force vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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The Falcons swoop into San Diego on a 3-game win streak, and they have won 4 of the past 5, with only a loss at home to Boise State since mid-October. Air Force has had its issues away from home, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in 4 games either on the road or at a neutral site.
The Aztecs whipped up on New Mexico last week, winning 34-10 in Albuquerque, and San Diego State has scored 23 or more points in 4 of the past 5 games. Unfortunately, a 32-28 loss at Fresno State Oct. 29 will keep the Aztecs out of the Mountain West Championship Game, but San Diego State is still set to go bowling.
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Air Force at San Diego State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Air Force -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | San Diego State +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Air Force -2 (-111) | San Diego State +2 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Air Force at San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 22, Air Force 20
Moneyline
SAN DIEGO STATE (+110) is a solid value at plus-money on its home field in this regular-season finale.
Air Force (-130) has had trouble away from home this season, winning just twice in 4 off-campus trips. And while the Falcons run the ball well, gobbling up a nation-best 341.2 rushing yards per game, the Aztecs yield just 115.9 yards per game on the ground, good for 24th in the nation.
Against the spread
SAN DIEGO STATE +2 (-109) is a much better play straight up, but if you think this will be a 1-point win in favor of Air Force -2 (-111), by all means, take the Aztecs. That’s the only way this wager makes any sense over the money line, however.
Over/Under
An UNDER 43.5 (-112) play with such a low number in this day and age is normally risky business. However, both of these defenses are legit, and we aren’t going to see a track meet in San Diego.
The Aztecs have the defense to at least slow down the triple-option rushing attack of the Falcons. And with that mostly ground-based attack for Air Force, it keeps the clock moving, which is what Under bettors like to see.
San Diego State struggles on offense, too, going for 23.0 PPG to rank 101st in the country. Yes, the Aztecs piled up the points in the past 2 weekends against San Jose State and New Mexico, but those 2 teams are terrible. Air Force has a much more formidable defense, and we’ll see a return to low production for the Aztecs on offense.
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