AFC East Odds – Syndication Server

We’re heading down the stretch of the preseason and hurtling toward Week 1 of the 2021 NFL regular season. Below, we analyze the AFC East and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The AFC East is composed of the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots and New York Jets.

The Patriots held a monopoly on the division from 2009-19, winning 11 consecutive titles before the Buffalo Bills rose to the top of the standings in 2020. It was Buffalo’s first division crown since the 1995 season.

The Bills were also the first team to win the AFC East since 2008, when the Miami Dolphins rattled off an 11-5 record to take the top spot. The Jets hold the longest drought in the division, last winning the AFC East in 2002.

Odds to win AFC East

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Bills: -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Patriots: +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
Dolphins: +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
Jets: +2000 (bet $100 to win $2,000)

The Bills are the only team in the division that will cost you more money than you can make as they’re rather moderate favorites. The others are all plus-money odds, which means more return than your original bet. The Jets are the biggest long-shot odds in the AFC East with +2000 odds representing an implied win probability of 4.76%.

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AFC East picks and predictions

The Bills are the favorites to repeat as division champs, an accomplishment they haven’t duplicated since winning four straight division crowns from 1988-91.

While I am a big fan of the Bills offense, led by MVP candidate QB Josh Allen and big-play downfield threat WR Stefon Diggs, their run game is a little concerning to me. RBs Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are serviceable but not great.

I think the best bang for your buck is a play on the PATRIOTS (+280). Yes, it was a tough transition from the Tom Brady era to the first season with QB Cam Newton at the helm. But Newton also lacked bona fide NFL-caliber weapons at key skill positions.

The Pats upgraded at the tight end position with both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith bolstering the spot. New England loves to use a TE-heavy offense, and those two give them their best group since TEs Rob Gronkowski and the late Aaron Hernandez. You didn’t expect head coach Bill Belichick to just stand pat, did you?

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I wouldn’t hesitate to make a small-unit wager on the Bills as I think they have a very good chance to grind out another AFC East title.

The Dolphins have some very nice pieces in place to make this a three-horse race. QB Tua Tagovailoa begins his first full season under center in South Florida, and if the skill position players can stay on the field and avoid injuries, head coach Brian Flores‘ team could be a lot of fun to watch.

Still, the value is in the Patriots. Belichick is a coaching legend, the Patriots made key offseason additions and rookie QB Mac Jones is a talent waiting in the wings just in case Newton struggles or suffers an injury. Depth, coaching and balance could win the day.

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For the last two decades, the AFC East has belonged to the New England Patriots. Since the 2003 season, the Patriots have won the division every year, except for the 2008 season when Tom Brady tore his ACL. The Patriots still went on to win 11 games that season, but it was the Miami Dolphins who wore the AFC East Crown.

Will things change in 2020 in the AFC East as Brady could be on the move? Could another team sneak up and pass the Patriots inside the division? Here are the betting odds for each team to win the AFC East in 2020.

2020 AFC East odds: New England Patriots (-304)

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, March 2 at 5 p.m. ET.

As expected, the Patriots are currently big favorites to win the AFC East for the 12th straight season. However, these odds are lower than usual as the Brady situation hangs over the fate of the entire franchise.

Even if the Patriots were to lose Brady, their defense, along with coach Bill Belichick makes this team tough to bet against. In all likelihood, Brady should return, and the Patriots will once again be one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. At their current odds, the Patriots are still a good bet to win the division. In fact, consider them a value play right now as Brady’s future is still in question.

2020 AFC East odds: Buffalo Bills (+325)

If you want to fade the Patriots, betting on the Bills at more than 3-1 to win the division isn’t a bad way to go. Under coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have gone 25-23 over the last three seasons. Their best year came in 2019 when they went 10-6 and made the playoffs.

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The Bills have an incredibly talented roster on both sides of the ball, but they need QB Josh Allen to continue to take steps forward as a passer. With their elite defense and top-tier run game, it’s reasonable to think Buffalo could reach double-digit wins in 2020. Don’t be afraid of betting on this hard-nosed Bills team next season.

2020 AFC East odds: New York Jets (+1000)

After the Patriots and the Bills, there is a big gap between the next tier of teams in the division. The Jets come in at 10-1 underdogs after finishing the season 7-9 last year. There is some optimism surrounding this team as it won six of the final eight games to finish the season. While the Jets defense played near an average level last season, it was their 31st-ranked scoring offense that held them back.

If the Jets can find some offensive line help to protect QB Sam Darnold, it wouldn’t be a shock to see this team sneak into the playoffs next season. However, the Jets are still a long way from topping the Patriots and the Bills and should be avoided at their current odds.

2020 AFC East odds: Miami Dolphins (+2000)

The Dolphins are 20-1 underdogs to win the East. While they are clearly still rebuilding the roster, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this team turned things around quicker than most expect. First-year coach Brian Flores was awfully impressive in the second half of the season as the Dolphins earned impressive wins against the Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles and Patriots.

If the Dolphins can find their franchise quarterback this offseason and rebuild their roster with the plethora of picks at their disposal, don’t be surprised if this team makes a big leap in 2020. However, it does appear Miami is still one or two years away from challenging New England or Buffalo atop of the division.

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