AC Milan welcomes Napoli to San Siro Wednesday for the 1st leg of their UEFA Champions League quarterfinal. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the AC Milan vs. Napoli odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
AC Milan finished 2nd in Group E, winning 3 games, losing 2 and drawing 1. AC Milan scored 12 goals and allowed 7. It qualified for the Round of 16, where it took down Tottenham by a combined 1-0. Milan sits 4th in Serie A, the top Italian League. F Rafael Leao leads the club with 20 goals in 22 starts.
Napoli won Group A, going 5-1 with 20 goals and 6 against. Napoli is 1st in Serie A and 13-1-1 on the road in league play. Nigerian F Victor Osimhen leads Napoli with 21 goals in 22 starts. Napoli took down Eintracht Frankfurt by a combined 5-0 in the Round of 16.
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AC Milan vs. Napoli odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: AC Milan +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Napoli +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Draw +210
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +120 | U: -175)
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AC Milan vs. Napoli picks and predictions
Prediction
Napoli 2, AC Milan 1
Moneyline (ML)
LEAN NAPOLI (+170).
Napoli has been dynamic this season and has been even better on the road than at home. It has won its last 8 road games throughout all competitions, including its last 7 league road matches.
Given this is a matchup between two Serie A teams, they should be familiar with each other. Milan beat Napoli on the road 4-0 April 2, and that will likely be remembered by the road side. Napoli has won 11 of its last 13 games as well.
Milan has a weaker defense and has lost 2 of its last 6 and has only won 1 of its last 6. Milan lost to Napoli 2-1 at home earlier in the season (Sept. 18).
Expect a matchup similar to that 1st meeting. BET NAPOLI (+170).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 2.5 (+120).
Napoli has gone Over in 3 of its last 4 games and went Over in 1 of its 2 Round of 16 games, having more than 2.5 expected goals in both matchups. Napoli has scored at least 2 goals in 14 of its last 16 games.
Milan put 4 on Napoli just over a week ago and should have success against a familiar attack. Milan averages 1.66 goals per game and allows 1.24 per game.
Both teams have dynamic offenses, and with a familiarity between them, they should play this game at a similar pace as their league matches, both of which went Over this total.
BET OVER 2.5 (+120).
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