The Detroit Lions appear headed towards a Top-10 pick in 2021 and with one week remaining in the 2020 season, they currently sit 7th overall.
The top-2 selections are set with the Jacksonville Jaguars holding the 1st overall pick and the New York Jets have locked up the 2nd pick. Everything else is still up for grabs, including the Lions moving up to the 3rd overall pick or dropping back to 13th overall.
Based on record alone, there are 13 teams within one game of the Lions 5-10 record, with teams strength of schedule sorting the draft positions further.
Move up from pick No. 7 scenarios
In order for the Lions to move up in the order, they will need some help from the four teams above them. The Houston Texans (who traded this pick to Miami Dolphins) and Atlanta Falcons both sit at 4-11, while the Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles have a 4-10-1 record.
If the Lions lose to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, and any of the above teams win, because of the strength of schedule, the Lions would move up one spot for each win — meaning in theory, they could rise all the way up to pick No. 3 overall.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem very realistic based on the opponents of those four teams all being in the playoffs or on the edge of the playoffs, meaning they all have something to play for.
Move down from pick No. 7 scenarios
Things get complicated when it comes to the strength of schedule, and there is one scenario where the Lions could move down, despite losing in Week 17. The New York Giants have an S.O.S of .506 (per Tankathon), just .002 behind the Lions S.O.S. of .504, meaning depending on the fallout across the league, the S.O.S could be altered enough to see a change.
All other scenarios begin with the Lions winning in Week 17.
Beyond the Giants, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos also have a 5-10 record. So if the Lions win, they would drop one slot for each loss from any of these three teams. Meaning, a Lions win, and all three teams lose, and it would drop the Lions to pick No. 10 at best.
But that’s not the bottom. Taking it a step further, if the Lions win and any of the current 6-9 teams lose, then S.O.S will come into play.
As of now, the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers sit and 6-9 and have an easier S.O.S. than the Lions. Either would jump the Lions in the order in the above scenario. Meaning, in this scenario, the Lions could drop down to pick No. 12 overall.
The Vikings S.O.S. is .508, just .004 behind the Lions, and if the Lions beat them, the S.O.S. could alter just enough to drop the Lions to No. 13 overall.
The remaining six-win teams — the San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots (who are 6-8 and play tonight), and Washington Football Team — don’t have a realistic S.O.S to jump the Lions even if they lose and the Lions win — plus someone has to win the NFC East.
Bottom line
If the Lions lose, they will pick between No. 3 and No. 8 overall.
If the Lions win, they will pick between No. 7 and No. 13 overall.