Tag: 49ers stats

Can 49ers put Leonard Floyd in a Dee Ford type of role?

The 49ers have the blueprint for how to maximize DE Leonard Floyd.

The 49ers may have to reconsider what Leonard Floyd’s role is going to be for them in 2024 if they believe he can be an every-down player for them at this point in his career. The good news is there’s a blueprint of their own they can follow to maximize their veteran defensive lineman.

Floyd last season for the Bills missed a whopping 37 percent of his tackles according to Pro Football Focus. That was by far the highest missed tackle rate of his career.

Buffalo primarily used Floyd on passing downs, which led to him playing a 576 total snaps and 167 snaps against the run. The total snaps were his fewest since 2018, while the run snaps were his fewest ever. This is a pattern the 49ers should be following this season.

It’s true that San Francisco doesn’t have a ton of great edge depth alongside Nick Bosa. Floyd is by most measures their second-best defensive end and he’ll probably start every game. Finding a more reliable tackler and edge setter in the run game to allow Floyd to be more of a pass rush specialist will be crucial.

The 49ers employed this strategy in 2019 with edge rusher Dee Ford. When Ford was healthy he was a sub-package defender in passing situations with Arik Armstead working in as the defensive end in base packages for run downs. Armstead would kick inside for passing downs and Ford would come in and wreak havoc off the edge.

While Floyd is plenty qualified to play the Ford role in this instance, the 49ers don’t have a player the caliber of Armstead to line up on the edge now that Armstead left to join the Jaguars this offseason.

That’s where players like Drake Jackson, Robert Beal Jr. and Yetur Gross-Matos can have their biggest impact. Jackson and Beal are still unproven, but Gross-Matos had good success as a run defender in the second half of last season with the Panthers. That lends some credence to the idea he could line up in the Armstead role where he is outside in base packages with Leonard working as a sub-package rusher.

Of course, there’s a chance the 49ers believe Floyd’s rough tackling year last year was an anomaly. San Francisco is good enough in the second level to provide more support for their defensive line and their range at linebacker takes pressure off their edge rushers to defend a lot in space. San Francisco may see Floyd as an every-down player for them given their lack of proven depth on the roster.

It’s clear at this point though the ideal scenario for the 49ers is one where another DE shines enough as a run defender to play that spot in run situations, allowing Floyd to take on that primary pass rush role. If they’re running into a scenario where Floyd is on the field for all three downs, it means something elsewhere on the roster has gone terribly wrong.

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Graph shows how 49ers, Kyle Shanahan have broken offensive football

Kyle Shanahan has solved modern offensive football. This graph shows how:

The 49ers offense shouldn’t be what it is. Or at least it shouldn’t put up the numbers it does given what the offense appears to be on paper.

San Francisco at its core is a run-first football team. Of the 1,024 snaps they played last year on offense (sixth-fewest in the NFL), 499 of them (48.8 percent) were rush attempts. Their 491 pass attempts were the fewest in the NFL.

That should mean the 49ers are one of the NFL’s lowest-production passing offenses. They simply don’t throw it as often, ergo they should have fewer yards.

Alas, that’s not how things shake out because head coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ personnel have cracked the present offensive code that allows them to maintain one of the NFL’s most efficient passing attacks while sticking to their core, run-first principles.

Ryan Heath, a writer at Fantasy Points, posted a graph on Twitter that perfectly illustrates how San Francisco has become a massive outlier in modern football:

There’s a pretty steady correlation between a team’s number of catchable throws per game and the number of yards they rack up. The one major exception is the 49ers. They managed to rank fourth in the NFL in passing yards despite landing at 32nd in attempts and among the bottom five in catchable targets.

Part of this is because of what the 49ers’ pass catchers are capable of after the catch. They rack up extra passing yards on short throws where most teams might get five or six yards from a certain play, while San Francisco is getting 20-plus yards out of the same play.

The reason this may be sustainable even if the yards-after-catch numbers dip is because of quarterback Brock Purdy’s efficiency down the field. He’s capable of stretching defenses vertically just enough that the 49ers can still take shots and rip off chunk plays in the passing game even if the YAC isn’t there.

Still, it all comes back to their rushing attack. Shanahan “establishes the run” in such a way that defenses have to commit to it which opens up the throwing lanes that lead to easy completions and YAC opportunities.

While most teams have started going toward a pass-heavy offense to ensure maximum efficiency, the 49ers have gone the other way while maintaining their passing efficiency. It’s something other teams in the league are bound to start doing more of as defenses begin adjusting, and that’s why Shanahan’s value as an offensive coach is so high. Staying ahead of that curve is going to be imperative. For now though it appears the 49ers have solved modern offensive football. Whether they can solve the next iteration of it will determine how long their window with Shanahan and Purdy stays open.

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What we learned about 49ers QB Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect in the Super Bowl, but he was excellent in the biggest spots. At least for now it looks like the #49ers long-term answer at quarterback.

It’s hard to take away a lot of good from the 49ers’ 25-22 overtime loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. However, quarterback Brock Purdy’s performance gives some hope that San Francisco has a signal caller it can win a Super Bowl with.

Purdy finished Sunday’s game 23-of-38 for 255 yards and one touchdown with no turnovers. It was perhaps his cleanest game of the playoffs.

More important than that though was how Purdy and the 49ers offense adjusted throughout the game. He went 10-of-15 for 123 yards in the first half, helping San Francisco build a 10-3 lead.

Then things got sideways in the third quarter as a stingy Chiefs defense tightened the clamps after halftime. In that third quarter Kansas City loaded the box and forced the 49ers into an uncomfortable spot where they couldn’t lean on their run game.

Purdy in that third quarter was just 4-of-10 for 25 yards, with one of his completions accounting for 17 of the yards.

This is ultimately where an improvement from him will come into play. San Francisco can’t be in a spot where a team taking away the run completely stagnates their offense. Purdy making one or two more individually great plays to help loosen up the Chiefs’ defense might have been the difference in a lopsided third quarter that saw the Chiefs go from down 10-3 to up 13-10.

The reason there’s optimism that Purdy can grow into that type of player is how he responded in the fourth quarter and overtime.

After a dismal third quarter, Purdy bounced back by completing 5-of-7 throws in the fourth quarter for 57 yards and a touchdown. His 10-yard TD pass to wide receiver Jauan Jennings put San Francisco ahead 16-13 with 11:22 left. After Kansas City tied it at 16, Purdy led a drive that got the 49ers into field goal range and allowed them to take a 19-16 lead with 1:57 to go.

Then in overtime Purdy completed 4-of-6 tosses for 50 yards while getting the 49ers into field goal range again to take a 22-19 lead that would ultimately not hold up to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

So there are two sides to this coin.

There’s the short-term response that Purdy wasn’t good enough to make the plays to keep up with Mahomes. The 49ers needed touchdowns and they got field goals. They needed to not get shut out in the third quarter and they needed more from their QB to get do that. That’s all true and anyone who wants to lay some blame on Purdy for that is justified in doing so.

But then there’s the long-term view where Purdy, in his first year as a full-time starter and second year as an NFL QB, coming off of major elbow surgery that cost him his entire offseason, went 9-of-13 for 107 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime of his first Super Bowl. That gives plenty of optimism that there’s more growth ahead for the 49ers’ QB.

Since Purdy was the final pick in the 2022 draft and has defied all logic since he became San Francisco’s starter in Week 13 last season, there’s been some people waiting for the other shoe to drop. There’s been a wait for him to slip up and be exposed as a bad quarterback winning via smoke and mirrors.

That wasn’t the case in the biggest game of his life. He had one rough quarter and figured out a way to move the ball in the game’s highest-pressure moments. He wasn’t perfect. Surely there are plays and throws he wants back. But there were plenty of signs Sunday to suggest that there’s more growth ahead for Purdy and that this Super Bowl trip wasn’t the result of some magic spell that let an inept QB participate on  the NFL’s biggest stage.

Perhaps that growth never comes and the 49ers in a couple years find themselves in the hunt for a QB once again. That will all play out in time though. Right now, immediately following Super Bowl LVIII, it appears the 49ers have a long-term answer at quarterback.

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49ers must gear up for very different version of Patrick Mahomes

It’s still Patrick Mahomes, but this version of him is dramatically different than the one the #49ers faced in Super Bowl LIV. Here’s how:

There may not be a bigger challenge in the NFL than stopping Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. The 49ers experienced this firsthand in Super Bowl LIV when Mahomes led a furious comeback that turned a 20-10 Chiefs deficit in the fourth quarter into a 31-20 Chiefs win. Unfortunately for San Francisco, their tape from Mahomes’ performance the last time they faced him in the Super Bowl isn’t likely to be very informative on slowing him down. Not only is Mahomes still dominant, he’s doing it in a dramatically different way than he did five seasons ago.

In 2019 the Chiefs were an electric, explosive deep passing game. Mahomes’ average depth of target was 8.5 yards per Pro Football Focus. He threw deep on 12.2 percent of his throws and had 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions on tosses 20-plus yards downfield. He was also prolific in the intermediate area with 20.5 percent of his throws coming between 10 and 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. There was still plenty of short game though with a combined 59.4 percent of his tosses coming either behind the line of scrimmage or within 9 yards of it.

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Mahomes had prime Tyreek Hill and prime Travis Kelce running around wreaking havoc, and the Chiefs offense stretched defenses in ways that were nigh impossible to stop for 60 minutes. Eventually the dam was going to break.

Now Hill is gone and Kelce is in the twilight of his prime, albeit still outstanding. Kansas City has relied on a patchwork receiving corps that features rookie Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, retread Mecole Hardman and veteran Marquez Valdez-Scantling. There’s also the erratic Kadarius Toney whose absence from the lineup may or may not be a net positive for Kansas City.

Instead of pigeonholing an unproven group of pass catchers into roles to fit a dynamic downfield passing game, Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid have reeled the passing game in. They now rely on Mahomes’ ability to process and extend plays to maximize a passing attack that requires more of its quarterback.

Explosive plays are still there, but Mahomes is much more likely to take a checkdown or short throw than he used to be.

In 2023 his ADOT plummeted to 6.9 yards. That’s tied for 38th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks. His deep throw rate dropped to 10.3 percent, and he tossed just two touchdowns with six interceptions on those throws. Mahomes this season has targeted the intermediate area just 17.7 percent of the time, and he’s in the short area on 40 percent of his tosses.

Those numbers are all down compared to 2019 to varying degrees, with a huge uptick coming on throws behind the line of scrimmage. In 2019 just 17.8 percent of his throws were behind the line. That number skyrocketed to 23.1 percent this season. He threw 112 (!) screen passes this year according to PFF, compared to just 66 five years ago.

So, what does this mean for the 49ers?

After having to defend a heavily vertical attack in Super Bowl LIV, San Francisco will now see a more compact Chiefs passing game. That doesn’t mean it’s less effective, and it doesn’t mean Mahomes isn’t capable of making throws down the field. It’s just a bigger question mark now as to whether the receiver is going to catch it.

In order to “stop” Mahomes now, the 49ers won’t need to contain vertical routes, they’ll need to tackle. Letting Mahomes scramble or letting pass catchers run after short throws is how Kansas City will generate chunk plays. Tackling has been a huge issue at times for San Francisco this season (they missed 150 this season). If they can do it effectively in the Super Bowl though, they’ll have a real chance of slowing down this new version of the Chiefs’ passing game and avenging their loss to Mahomes four years ago.

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How to build a comeback: 9 plays that swung NFC championship for 49ers

Here are the plays that defined the 49ers’ incredible NFC championship game comeback over the Lions:

Somehow, someway, the 49ers pulled out a 34-31 win over the Lions in the NFC championship game.

Detroit led 24-7 at halftime and looked like the far more dominant team through the first 30 minutes. Then the wheels came off in the second half.

So, how did San Francisco manufacture a 17-point second-half comeback? We went through and found the nine plays that tipped, and continued tipping the game in the 49ers’ favor:

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Christian McCaffrey ties an NFL record with big day vs. Cardinals

Christian McCaffrey’s scoring binge on Sunday tied an NFL record, and put him on the verge of breaking a Jerry Rice franchise record.

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey had a huge Week 15 in Arizona. McCaffrey led the club with 115 rushing yards, while also notching a team-high five receptions for a team-high 72 receiving yards. He also tallied three total TDs, including two in the air and one on the ground.

His multifaceted scoring attack helped him climb to the top of the NFL history books. Sunday marked McCaffrey’s 15th career game with at least one rushing and one receiving touchdown. That ties him with former Colts and Rams running back Marshall Faulk for the most such games all time.

Of those 15 games, four have come this year and another two came last season after he joined the 49ers. That means six of his 15 have come in the 25 games he’s played in San Francisco. There’s a very real chance McCaffrey breaks that record this season.

McCaffrey on Sunday also notched his 18th, 19th and 20th touchdowns of the season. He’s only the second player in 49ers franchise history to eclipse the 20 TD mark. Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice set the franchise record with 23 total TDs in the 1987 season (in only 12 games!!!).

There’s a very real chance McCaffrey breaks both Faulk’s NFL record and Rice’s 49ers franchise record this season.

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Brock Purdy closing in on 2 49ers franchise passing records

Brock Purdy could break 2 49ers franchise passing records without even needing the 17th game.

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is knocking on the door of a pair of franchise passing records that he may not even need the 17th game to break.

On Sunday in Arizona Purdy tossed four touchdowns and threw for 242 yards. For the season he’s now up to 3,795 passing yards and 29 passing TDs after 14 games.

That puts him only 483 yards behind Jeff Garcia’s single-season franchise record of 4,278 passing yards. Purdy is also only seven TD throws behind Steve Young’s franchise record 36 from the 1998 season.

With games coming up against the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that Purdy breaks both of those records without needing the 17th game.

If he and his teammates are healthy through the final three weeks, and Purdy doesn’t completely collapse from a production standpoint, it appears Purdy is all but a lock to break both of these records at some point this season though.

Even without the records though he’s having a really nice year and one of the best ever by a 49ers QB from a statistical standpoint. His 3,795 yards are the ninth-most in team history, and with 205 yards against Baltimore in Week 16 he’d be only the third QB in franchise history to hit the 4,000-yard mark. Steve Young did it twice, and Garcia did it when he set the single-season record.

Then there’s the TD passes, of which his 29 are the most since Garcia had 32 in 2001, and they’re tied for seventh-most in franchise history.

Any way this winds up getting sliced, Purdy is putting together an historic year that will go down in the annals of 49ers history regardless of where he finishes in the MVP race.

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49ers on track for highest-scoring offense in team history

This 49ers offense is on pace to be the most prolific in franchise history.

The 49ers’ 45-point outburst vs. the Cardinals in Week 15 put them at 30.3 points per game for the season. It’s not easy to average 30 for an entire year, and this year’s club is on track to be the highest-scoring in franchise history.

Through 14 games this season San Francisco has 425 points. That’s the 14th-highest total in club history. If they average 30 in their next two games they’ll be at 485 points – their third-highest mark ever behind the 1948 and 1994 teams.

In 1948 the team scored a whopping 495 points in just 14 games. In 1994 they set the franchise record with 505 point in their 16 contests.

While the 1994 team benefitted from the two extra games the ’48 club didn’t get, this year’s team could also set a franchise record with the benefit of an extra game.

If they do get to 485 heading into the final game, they’d need just 21 points to set the franchise scoring record. Given that they’ll likely need to win out to secure a No. 1 seed in the NFC, it’s certainly on the table that they continue racking up a record-number of points.

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Why Kyle Shanahan is okay with defenses trying to take Deebo Samuel away

Deebo Samuel has been the 49ers’ offensive spark, and Kyle Shanahan would be fine with teams trying to take that away.

The 49ers in each of the last three weeks have needed an offensive spark. In all three instances they went to wide receiver Deebo Samuel to make a play, then leaned on him to continue manufacturing offense as a pass catcher in all three levels and as a runner out of the backfield. In the last three games, all 49ers wins, Samuel has accounted for 382 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns.

Teams will surely aim to take Samuel away, which is exactly what head coach Kyle Shanahan wants.

Shanahan on Monday in his conference call said there’s not a concerted effort to get Samuel the ball specifically since the team is so loaded offensively, but he wouldn’t mind if teams started focusing heavily on his playmaking wide receiver.

“I mean, we always try to get to Deebo to get a spark if you look since he’s been around,” Shanahan said. “But, our other choices too, if we go to Christian at the time, [TE] George [Kittle],  B.A., Jauan, anybody. They all can give sparks. It kind of depends on what teams are playing, how they’re playing us. Deebo has also strung together a number of healthy weeks here over this last month, which has allowed him really to get back into the groove of things and be more consistent and just being out there and not having to sub him quite as much and him kind of being ready for all this stuff.

“So, it’s awesome when you can put him there and the more he does it the more people are going to focus extremely hard to take those away because if he isn’t a good look that’s usually the results you get. The more we can get people to take Deebo away, there’s nothing against Deebo, that means he’s a threat and that makes things easier for other guys. So it really should be ebb and flow like that throughout a year based off the guys we have and distributing it.”

Sunday’s win over Seattle was a dazzling offensive display where Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kittle and McCaffrey all got loose. Samuel, Aiyuk and McCaffrey all accounted for more than 100 yards from scrimmage. Kittle posted 76 yards and a touchdown.

If teams start devoting more resources to stopping one player, it means they’re leaving one of those weapons either unguarded or in a mismatch. That’s the bind Shanahan wants defenses to be in, and in an ideal world they’ll be leaving themselves vulnerable in an area the 49ers can exploit.

Samuel is a tone setter for San Francisco’s offense and they should continue going to him when they need a big play. However, the 49ers will take it if they’re getting big plays elsewhere because teams are trying so hard to ensure it’s not Samuel beating them.

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Brock Purdy on track to set 49ers single-season passing yards record

Brock Purdy won’t even need 17 games to break the 49ers’ single-season passing record if he keeps up this pace:

Brock Purdy’s big year is on pace to rival 1994 Steve Young for the best quarterback season in 49ers history. There’s a ton of peripheral context for defining success in a season for a QB though, so we’ll hold off on the big, sweeping statements for now. What we can definitively say is that Purdy is on track to shatter the team’s single-season record for passing yards.

Perhaps the most remarkable part though is that Purdy won’t even need the benefit of a 17th game to break that record. After his 368-yard outburst Sunday against the Seahawks, Purdy is now sitting at 3,553 passing yards for the year. That alone is the 13th-highest mark in 49ers history.

Purdy is also averaging 273.3 passing yards per game this season. That number would put him at 4,373 passing yards across 16 games, clearing the franchise record of 4,278 set by Jeff Garcia in the 2000 season.

If he keeps that pace over 17 games he’d obliterate Garcia’s record with 4,646 yards.

Ultimately success for 49ers quarterbacks is determined by whether they win a Super Bowl, but it’s hard to see the numbers Purdy is stacking up and not say he’s going toward one of the best seasons ever posted by a 49ers QB.

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