Tag: 49ers stats

1 major concern for 49ers against Cowboys

This could be a real problem for the 49ers on Sunday night!

The San Francisco 49ers will go into their Week 8 showdown with the Dallas Cowboys in desperate need of a win.

San Francisco’s schedule gives them an opportunity to make a playoff run if they can enter their Week 9 Bye with a 4-4 record. If they lose Sunday night and fall to 3-5, their path to the postseason becomes even more difficult.

Dallas has struggled through their first six games on both sides of the ball, but special teams is where things could really get sideways for the 49ers.

While the Cowboys’ offense and defense haven’t been great, their punt and kick returner KaVontae Turpin has been perhaps the best player at those two positions in the NFL. That’s particularly problematic for a 49ers coverage unit that’s surrendered a whopping 18.4 yards per punt return and 33.2 yards per kick return.

Turpin this season is averaging 19.2 yards per punt return and 43.0 yards per kick return. He also returned a punt for a touchdown in Week 1 against the Browns this season.

The 49ers have already had multiple games swing because of special teams mishaps, including long punt returns against the Rams and Chiefs, and a kick return touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks.

San Francisco is favored to win, but there may not be a player more capable of turning the game toward Dallas than Turpin against a shoddy 49ers special teams group.

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George Kittle could be top 3 pass catcher in 49ers history with big Week 8

George Kittle could surpass a couple of 49ers legends on the all-time receiving yards list with a big game in Week 8.

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle has a chance to cement himself as a franchise legend with a big game in Week 8 against the Dallas Cowboys.

Never mind for a moment Kittle’s gregarious personality, which combined with his productivity has already put him in the realm of all-time greats in 49ers history.

A big Week 8 showing could land Kittle at No. 3 in the 49ers’ all-time receiving yards list. He’s entering the week at No. 5, but he needs just 102 yards to leap into the top three.

Here’s what the top-five looks like entering Sunday night’s game:

1. WR Jerry Rice: 19,247
2. WR Terrell Owens: 8,572
3. WR Dwight Clark: 6,750
4. WR Gene Washington: 6,664
5. TE George Kittle: 6,649

Kittle is already more than 1,000 yards clear of Vernon Davis for the most receiving yards by a TE in franchise history.

It’ll be interesting to see if Kittle can eventually track down Owens. Kittle is on track for exactly 1,000 yards in 2024. That would put him at 7,274 yards –leaving him 1,298 yards shy of Owens. Two more years with 650 yards in each season would be enough to climb to No. 2 in 49ers history. He’d need to average 433 yards per season with the 49ers if he plays for three more years in San Francisco.

Before trying to track down Owens, however, Kittle needs to play in Week 8. He’s dealing with a foot sprain that held him out of Wednesday’s practice. He returned Thursday, which is a good sign for his chances to play against the Cowboys and continue his trek up the 49ers’ all-time receiving yards leaderboard.

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Kyle Juszczyk explains evolution of 49ers offense in 2024

Why the 49ers offense has evolved so much this year:

There aren’t many players more familiar with the San Francisco 49ers offense than fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who has been with the club since signing as a free agent in 2017.

This season has been a little different than the last couple of years for the 49ers’ offense. They’re without reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, they’re struggling to score touchdowns in the red zone, and their trademark yards-after-catch haven’t been there.

Instead, San Francisco and quarterback Brock Purdy are pushing the ball down the field more often and finding throws outside the middle of the field where they’ve typically thrived.

Juszczyk joined the Candlestick Chronicles podcast with POM Wonderful pomegranate juice and explained that the changing offense is due to normal evolution, but it’s also a response to how they’re being defended.

“Like everything I think it’s a combination of both,” Juszczyk said. “I think when you speak about the YAC numbers, it’s harder to get yards after catch or contact when you’re throwing the ball downfield more. Whereas when you get these short dump-offs, and that’s where it’s kinda easier to gets yards after catch because defenses are further back.

“And yeah I think for so many years we were known for these in-breaking routes, throwing the ball over the middle, like that was most definitely our bread and butter. So teams are gonna start to adjust to that, and it’s just kinda natural that we start throwing out-breaking routes. It’s a cyclical thing and I’m sure that by the end of the season throwing the ball over the middle is gonna be our bread and butter again. It’s always gonna continue to go back and forth. It’s a chess match. So that’s where I really do think it’s a little bit of both. It’s the evolution of the offense. It’s Brock being more comfortable in the pocket, staying in there longer to take shots downfield. It’s how teams play us. It’s always a little bit of everything.”

Finding a way to utilize shorter throws and create more yards after catch may be the ultimate key to the 49ers’ success this season.

Purdy has already shown the ability to stretch defenses vertically. If they can supplement that with the short game and YAC they’ve been so good with the last few years, it might make them the best offense in the league.

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How will Christian McCaffrey return impact 49ers offense?

Christian McCaffrey’s return won’t make the 49ers’ offense look like it did last year, but it should help in a couple of key areas.

The San Francisco 49ers have somehow managed to churn out a productive, efficient offense even without running back Christian McCaffrey.

Just because they’ve been able to churn out yards and points doesn’t mean life hasn’t been more difficult for the 49ers without the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. His return, which could be coming sooner rather than later, should make a couple of things much easier for the 49ers.

The first area McCaffrey should help is in the red zone. Last season the 49ers were the No. 1 red zone team in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 67.2 percent of their red zone trips. This season without McCaffrey that number has plummeted to 44.4 percent.

His nose for the end zone as a runner alone will help, but his dual-threat skill set will open a ton of things up down near the end zone.

McCaffrey is a threat as a receiver, which defenses have to respect when he’s out in a route. He can be moved around to help manipulate defenders and open up space for tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Neither Samuel nor Kittle are great at creating separation, which becomes a significant problem in the confined spaces of the red zone. Having McCaffrey to occupy defenders could make life easier for the 49ers’ other pass catchers.

That’s the same way he can help elsewhere on the field where defenses have started clogging the middle of the field and taking away some of the space the 49ers offense has thrived in.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is still working the middle of the field, but the result of those throws isn’t quite the same as it was over the last few seasons. 49ers pass catchers are making receptions in the middle of the field and not creating yards after the catch.

Last season Samuel racked up 8.7 yards-after-catch per reception. Kittle was at 7.3, while McCaffrey and RB Jordan Mason were both at 7.0 YAC/reception.

This year Samuel is down to 7.6 in that category. Mason is at 5.6 and Kittle’s number has fallen all the way to 3.5.

Aiyuk’s is largely unchanged.

Getting McCaffrey back where defenders have to vacate the middle of the field to account for him as a receiver should generate more space and more YAC opportunities for 49ers receivers.

We’ll also likely see Purdy’s completion rate tick up toward the 69.4 percent mark he landed on last season. This year as his downfield throws have skyrocketed, his completion rate has started falling. Part of the push downfield is likely due to how teams are defending the 49ers, but it stands to reason Purdy will take easier throws to McCaffrey instead of scrambling and creating out of structure the way he has so often this season.

It’s unlikely the 49ers’ offense will be an exact replica of last year when McCaffrey returns, but he should make some of the difficult things like red zone TDs and short-area throws much easier when he’s finally back on the field.

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Kyle Shanahan explains why 49ers have gone away from successful offensive play type

Kyle Shanahan’s explanation for the 49ers’ dip in play action rate lines up with the numbers. A deep-ish dive:

There was a curious trend for the San Francisco 49ers’ offense through the first five weeks of the 2024 season.

After leaning heavily on play-action through Brock Purdy’s first season-plus, they started going away from it this year. It would’ve made sense had Purdy’s numbers out of play action started dipping, but he was still seeing a massive uptick in productivity on those plays.

In 2022 the 49ers ran play action 26.6 percent of the time with Purdy under center. That number dipped a little to 23.0 percent last year in his first full season as a starter.

Going into Week 6 of this season, the play action rate had plummeted to 17.6 percent.

It was a head-scratching choice that head coach Kyle Shanahan explained in a press conference Wednesday.

“No, we just try to run what we think looks good on tape and it kind of just depends on how people are playing us and sometimes we think it looks really good, sometimes we think it’s not so good,” Shanahan said. “So it’s not like we don’t just do things every week because we do it. I think it’s just been just a matter of how the schedule’s played out.”

We dug into some of the 49ers’ play action numbers and it was pretty easy to spot what got the team’s play action rate down. It turns out blitzing San Francisco heavily this season will typically get them out of their play action game.

Here’s a handy graph we made using data from Pro Football Focus:

The 49ers’ play-action rate against the Vikings was just 6.7 percent thanks to Minnesota blitzing Purdy on 51.1 percent of his dropbacks.

Against the Patriots’ 40.0 percent blitz rate, San Francisco ran play action just 13.3 percent of the time.

Conversely, the 49ers’ season-high 29.0 percent play action rate against the Seahawks came with Seattle blitzing on a season-low 19.4 percent of the 49ers’ dropbacks.

The only real outlier from this trend is Week 5 where the Cardinals brought a blitz on 46.3 percent of Purdy’s dropbacks and the 49ers still passed with play action 24.4 percent of the time. Interestingly, that Week 5 performance was also Purdy’s worst of the year. He completed just 54.3 percent of his throws and tossed two interceptions with only one touchdown for a season-low 62.1 quarterback rating.

This all tracks with what Shanahan told reporters in response to questions about the team’s drop in play action rate. Defenses that blitz more are generally going to keep the 49ers from running longer-developing plays that require a fake handoff.

Eliminating the Patriots and Vikings games puts the 49ers’ play action rate at 24.4 percent – right between what it was in Purdy’s first two years.

Play action hasn’t been abandoned by the 49ers. Defenses are just playing them a little differently in 2024. That’ll always be an important element to the 49ers’ passing game, particularly given how effective their run game is. However, how Purdy adjusts against the blitz and how the offense adapts to punish teams for bringing extra pass rushers will ultimately determine their success on that side of the ball this season.

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1 offensive trend 49ers must carry over from Week 6

The 49ers got back to what works on offense against Seattle, a trend that should help them entering a brutal part of their schedule.

There’s a clear trend the San Francisco 49ers needed to continue following this season, and they did it in the team’s Week 6 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is excellent in play action, but his play action rate dipped from 2022 to 2023, and then from 2023 to 2024. Entering Thursday’s game he was running play action just 17.6 percent of the time per Pro Football Focus.

Thursday the 49ers utilized play action on season-high 29 percent of Purdy’s dropbacks. It probably isn’t a coincidence that the uptick in play action usage came in the same game San Francisco posted a season-high 36 points and 483 total yards.

Purdy wasn’t as successful as usual out of play action Thursday, but his season numbers in that concept still outshine his numbers in non-play action.

In play action Purdy is completing 72.2 percent of his throws this season, averages 12.6 yards per attempt and has two touchdowns with no interceptions.

Without play action, Purdy is at 63.8 percent completions, 7.9 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns and four interceptions.

By getting their play-action game going against Seattle, they also got their rushing attack going with a season-high 228 rushing yards on 33 carries.

It’s clear the maximized version of the 49ers’ offense involves a heavy dose of play action that gets linebackers moving and playing slower than they might normally play. It worked Thursday night against the Seahawks, and it’s something they need to continue doing heading into a Week 7 showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Has negative rest differential hurt 49ers this season?

How much has rest differential hurt the 49ers so far in 2024?

The San Francisco 49ers for the last two seasons have been up against the dreaded ‘rest differential‘ thanks to their schedule.

A key talking point when the NFL releases its full schedule is the number of days a team has off between games compared to its opponent. If Teams A and B face off after having played the previous Sunday, the rest differential is zero for both teams. If Team A played Monday night, and Team B played Sunday, Team B would have a plus-one rest differential when facing Team A the following Sunday.

The 49ers have been on the wrong side of the rest differential by historical proportions in each of their last two schedules. In 2023 they had the sixth-worst rest differential of all-time. This year they have the third-worst.

In 2023 it didn’t matter in the grand scheme of the season as the 49ers finished 12-5 and snagged the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

So far in 2024 it hasn’t mattered much either.

San Francisco through six weeks has yet to play a game with a positive rest differential, and there’s no clear evidence that being at a rest disadvantage has actually hurt the 49ers.

They had neutral rest differentials in Week 1, Week 3, Week 5 and Week 6.

In Week 1 they beat the Jets. They lost in Weeks 3 and 5 to the Rams and Cardinals, respectively. Then they beat the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

In Week 2, thanks to a Week 1 Monday Night Football game, the 49ers were a minus-1 rest differential in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

On the other hand, the Patriots had a plus-three rest differential in Week 4 when they visited Levi’s Stadium, and San Francisco handled them with relative ease.

Now it’s up to the 49ers to continue shrugging off rest disadvantages because they’re going to have two big ones entering their next two games.

The Chiefs, who were on a bye in Week 6, will have a plus-three rest differential at Levi’s Stadium in Week 7.

Then the 49ers host the Cowboys in Week 8 after Dallas has its bye in Week 7. That means they’ll have a plus-seven differential when they visit San Francisco.

While the rest advantage is a preseason talking point, the 49ers don’t have the margin for error to use it as an excuse. They overcame a season full of tough schedule spots last year, and they did it once already this year. That trend needs to continue heading into their Week 9 bye if they want to put themselves in position to potentially push for the No. 1 seed again.

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49ers WR accomplishes career feat never reached by WR in NFL history

Deebo Samuel is incredible.

It’s not a huge surprise when San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel does something unique at his position.

After all, Samuel effectively pioneered the “wide back” role that no other wide receiver has been able to replicate. Samuel’s 2021 All-Pro season featured 1,408 receiving yards and a wide receiver record 365 rushing yards. He also posted 14 total touchdowns that season.

While he’s not as prolific as a runner in 2024, Samuel’s multifaceted skill set still shines through, and there’s nothing that highlights that more than what he accomplished Thursday night in the 49ers’ 36-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks.

In the second quarter Samuel got loose up the left sideline. After Seahawks safety Julian Love badly misplayed the ball, Samuel outran the entire Seattle defense for a 76-yard score. It marked his second receiving TD of the year, and the 20th receiving touchdown of his career.

Per NFL Network’s Bridget Condon, Samuel became the first wide receiver in NFL history with 20 receiving touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns.

Reaching the 20/20 plateau is quite a feat regardless of position though. Only 19 players in history have done it — all running backs. Saints RB Alvin Kamara, Commanders RB Austin Ekeler, and Samuel’s teammate with the 49ers Christian McCaffrey are the three other active players on the list per Stathead’s search database.

The remarkable thing with Samuel is that there are no other WRs even close in history. Jerry Rice’s 10 rushing TDs are the second most for a WR. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is next on the list with seven. He’s tied with Bills WR Curtis Samuel.

Samuel may never replicate his dynamic 2021 season, but his unique versatility will live on forever in stats like this one where he became the first, and maybe last, receiver to hit 20 TDs in the air and on the ground.

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1 big change 49ers can make to help QB Brock Purdy

Here’s one way the 49ers can help their offense.

It’s hard to watch the San Francisco 49ers offense this season and not notice a very different version of that unit than we’ve seen in recent years.

Quarterback Brock Purdy has started relying heavily on downfield throws, and not so much on yards after catch. While Purdy is playing well, the 49ers’ offense has stagnated at times during the season.

One way they might be able to help is by getting back to an old staple: play-action passing.

The 49ers through Purdy’s first season-plus relied a ton on play action. In 2022 when he took over as a rookie, 26.6 percent of his dropbacks were play action according to Pro Football Focus. That trend continued in 2023 with 23.0 percent of his dropbacks featuring play action.

In 2024 that percentage has plummeted to 17.6 percent in a baffling shift from head coach Kyle Shanahan.

To make matters worse, Purdy has better numbers in play action this year than he has at any point in his career. This season he’s completing 78.6 percent of his play action throws and averaging a whopping 12.4 yards per attempt.

In 2022 his completion rate was at 67.7 percent with 10.1 yards per attempt. In 2023 the YPA stayed stagnant while his completion rate leapt to 77.3 percent.

This season in particular the move away from play action throws becomes even more head-scratching considering his numbers outside of it. Without play action this season, Purdy’s completion rate is at 62.8 percent, while his yards-per-attempt sits at 8.0. All four of his INTs have come without play action. His completion rate jumps 15.8 points and his YPA shoots up by 4.4 yards with the fake involved.

Perhaps moving away from play action has been personnel-related. Maybe it has to do with how the 49ers are being defended. It’s clear they have to find ways to sprinkle in more play action dropbacks though because moving away from it hasn’t been helpful. The sooner they start doing it at a higher rate, the sooner they put themselves in a position to maximize their offense and their quarterback.

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49ers out-of-nowhere superstar has chance to set franchise record

Jordan Mason is on track to break a 49ers record.

The San Francisco 49ers have had some outstanding running backs roll through their organization. Undrafted third-year running back Jordan Mason is on the verge of doing something none of those great RBs have done.

Mason closed out the 49ers’ Week 4 over the New England Patriots with a 25-yard run. That put him at 123 yards for the day, marking his third 100-yard game in four contests. He had 147 yards in the season opener vs. the New York Jets, then 100 in Week 2 against the Minnesota Vikings.

By eclipsing the 100-yard mark in Week 4, he tied the 49ers franchise record for most 100-yard games in the first five games of a season. With the fifth game coming up Sunday vs. the Arizona Cardinals, he could become the first 49ers player with four 100-yard rushing games in the team’s first five contests.

Christian McCaffrey did it three times last season. He was the first to do that since Billy Kilmer in 1961. Joe Perry was the first 49er to have 100-plus rushing yards in the first five games, doing so in 1953.

There’s another layer of this for Mason, though.

The 2022 undrafted free agent can match Steelers RB Willie Parker for the most 100-yard rushing games in the first five games of a season by an undrafted player.

While the success through five games is fun, the 49ers have goals well beyond the first third of the season. The bigger deal will be whether Mason can keep up his success with such a massive workload. If they wind up needing him to start for the entire season, it may be worth sacrificing some stats in the name of keeping him healthy.

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