Thoughts and observations from 49ers’ 37-15 win over Panthers

Some thoughts after a dominant #49ers victory in Carolina.

It wasn’t perfect, but the 49ers went into Carolina and for the most part dominated in a 37-15 victory to move to 3-2 on the season.

Here are some observations and notes from each quarter of a crucial victory for San Francisco:

RB Tevin Coleman puts exclamation point on 49ers game vs. Panthers

Tevin Coleman caps big day for #49ers offense vs. the Panthers.

The 49ers defense got a stop late against the Panthers that gave their offense the ball inside the Carolina 5. Two plays later it was RB Tevin Coleman cruising around the left side for his second touchdown of the game to put the 49ers up 37-15 with just over three minutes to play. It was a nice breakout game for Coleman who had 11 touches for 67 yards and two touchdowns.

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Jimmy Garoppolo hits Deebo Samuel for short TD, 2 score lead on Panthers

WATCH: Jimmy G. to Deebo Samuel puts the #49ers up 24-9 in Carolina.

The 49ers offense picked up the slack after their defense gave up a touchdown to open the second half. On a third-and-goal from the 4, Jimmy Garoppolo found Deebo Samuel in a tight window for a touchdown that put San Francisco up 24-9 a little more than halfway through the third quarter.

Emmanuel Moseley makes house call off Baker Mayfield

The #49ers defense comes through with points once again.

The 49ers offense stalled out late in the first half and their field goal attempt got blocked. Things looked like they might unravel, but once again San Francisco’s defense came through when Emmanuel Moseley picked off Baker Mayfield and returned it 40-plus yards for a touchdown and a 17-3 49ers lead.

A Tevin Coleman sighting for 49ers touchdown

The #49ers got the scoring in Carolina started behind … Tevin Coleman?!?!

Tevin Coleman didn’t play much in Week 4 during his first game with the 49ers. He played just one offensive snap. Week 5 saw him make an impact right away though when he caught a screen pass from Jimmy Garoppolo on a second-and-goal from the 9. Coleman followed blockers and plowed his way into the end zone for a 49ers touchdown and an early lead over the Panthers.

49ers inactives: No surprises in Week 5

The #49ers ruled out 7 players on Friday, so there wasn’t much room for a surprise in their inactive list:

There were no surprises among the 49ers list of inactives for their Week 5 showdown with the Panthers.

San Francisco on Friday ruled out seven players with injuries. Those seven players comprised virtually their entire inactive list:

DL Arik Armstead (foot, ankle)
RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle)
DT Javon Kinlaw (knee)
TE Tyler Kroft (knee)
DB Tarvarius Moore (hamstring)
LT Trent Williams (ankle)
RB Marlon Mack

The good news for San Francisco is WR Jauan Jennings and TE Ross Dwelley didn’t have any setbacks after being limited the first two days of practice. Jennings is dealing with an ankle issue. Dwelley has a rib injury. Both players were off the injury report and not among the inactives. Both Jennings and Dwelley are effective blockers, so having them to help out a banged up offensive line should give the 49ers some flexibility in the run game.

Rookie OL Nick Zakelj is active with injuries up front for San Francisco. It’s his first time suiting up since being selected in the sixth round of this year’s draft.

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Kyle Shanahan hoping to delay Panthers breakout game

Kyle Shanahan said all the right things when discussing the Panthers ahead of the #49ers’ Week 5 game in Carolina.

Neither the 49ers nor the Panthers have gotten off to particularly strong starts in 2022, but San Francisco has certainly shown more life than Carolina through four weeks. On the surface it appears the 49ers should roll Sunday in Carolina. Head coach Kyle Shanahan on Friday offered a couple reasons for concern for his club.

The first thing he pointed to has more to do with his own team than the Panthers. Carolina’s defense hasn’t been as big of a problem this season, and Shanahan talked about the perils of turnovers for a heavily-favored team – something the 49ers have already dealt with this year.

“First of all, I think similar to us, when you have a defense that has the talent they have and I think it’s extremely well-coached and they can get turnovers and pressure the quarterback,” Shanahan said. “Regardless of what you do on the other side, if it’s a turnover game, it’s very tough to win.”

In their two losses this season, the 49ers have turned the ball over five times and they’re minus-four in the turnover column. In their two wins, they’ve turned it over zero times and are plus-five in the turnover column.

Offensively Carolina has struggled to start the season. They’re last in total yards and tied for 26th in yards per play. Football Outsiders has them at No. 31 in offensive DVOA.

Despite all that, Shanahan believes a breakout is coming for that unit due to a handful of talented players.

“When you look at their offense, they have players over there, they have coaches who have done it, they have a good scheme,” Shanahan said. “I just think they haven’t gotten going yet. They’ve had times, but [RB Christian] McCaffrey’s healthy and he looks as the same as he used to. He is a problem. They have talented receivers and [QB] Baker [Mayfield] has done a lot of good things in this league. They got a young o-line that’s coming together, but it has the ability to do well. It’s not like you just see guys out there who can’t do it and you see a scheme that can do it, so it’s a matter of time, they’ll get it going. We just have to make sure it’s not this week.”

It would be pretty shocking if a struggling offense got right against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 1 in points allowed, yards allowed, and defensive DVOA.

Still, the 49ers have lost games under Shanahan they’ve had no business losing before, so going into a game with the mindset the head coach has is imperative. If they can go dominate a game like this one, it could be the 49ers that get back on track and reassert themselves as one of the NFC’s top contenders heading into the middle portion of their schedule.

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Can 49ers cover big spread vs. Panthers?

Can the #49ers cover a pretty big spread against the Panthers?

The 49ers are heavy favorites on the road in Carolina on Sunday, and they probably should be. Tipico Sportsbook has them favored by 6.5 points despite a cross country trip on a short week after Monday Night Football.

That’s probably about the right number. Carolina’s offense is one of the NFL’s worst, ranking 31st in offensive DVOA per Pro Football Outsiders. Pick any offensive metric though and the Panthers are at or near the bottom of the league.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense is No. 1 in defensive DVOA and at or near the top of virtually any metric that measures total defense. There’s a very easy scenario to envision where the Panthers simply can’t move the ball effectively for most of Sunday’s game and the 49ers offense puts up a couple scores and they cover easily.

On the other hand, it’s not a slam dunk that the 49ers’ offense will move the ball against Carolina. While the Panthers have had their offensive issues this season, their defense has mostly been okay behind star pass rusher Brian Burns.

The version of the 49ers offense we’ve seen the last two weeks hasn’t been particularly inspiring, and now they’re starting third-string left tackle Jaylon Moore. Uneven offensive performances make it easy to also envision a scenario where San Francisco’s offense looks something like it did in Denver or through most of the second half against the Rams.

Ultimately the matchup to watch is the 49ers’ defense against Carolina’s offense. Even if San Francisco struggles some offensively, a combination of defensive takeaways and a couple of explosive plays by the offense should allow them to comfortably outscore whatever it is the defense gives up.

There’s also the world where the 49ers offense hits its stride after a couple of early-season hiccups and they roll Carolina by multiple touchdowns.

Either way, there are more outcomes where the 49ers cover the 6.5 than outcomes where they don’t. Even if a full touchdown feels like a lot for a struggling offense, it’s probably the safe pick this week.

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