Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.
Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.
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Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.
- Patrick Mahomes +110
- Jimmy Garoppolo +250
- Raheem Mostert +750
- George Kittle +1400
- Travis Kelce +1400
- Tyreek Hill +1600
- Damien Williams +1600
- Nick Bosa +2000
- Deebo Samuel +2500
- Emmanuel Sanders +3300
- Sammy Watkins +3300
- Tevin Coleman +5000
- Frank Clark +8000
- Mecole Hardman +8000
- Richard Sherman +8000
- Chris Jones +8000
- Arik Armstead +10000
- Tyrann Mathieu +10000
- DeForest Buckner +10000
- Dante Pettis +10000
- Kendrick Bourne +10000
- Matt Breida +10000
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.
But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).
So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.
Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.
The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.
The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.
And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.
Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.
Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.
Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.
A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.
It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.
Follow @camdasilva and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
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