Tag: 2024 nfl previews

The Seahawks’ soft reset puts a ton of pressure on a first year coach (and Geno Smith)

Pete Carroll’s defense fell apart and doomed good teams to playoff exits. Mike Macdonald is here to fix things.

On the field, the 2024 Seattle Seahawks will look a lot like the same team that wrapped the 2023 season. Geno Smith will still be quarterback, slinging passes to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The running back platoon of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will run around edges set by tackles Abe Lucas and Charles Cross. The defense will be led by Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams.

But the guy calling the plays will be different. That’s what Seattle hopes will make all the difference.

Pete Carroll retired this offseason, calling it a career after 14 years, 137 regular season wins and a Super Bowl victory with the Seahawks. In his stead comes Mike Macdonald, another defensive-minded head coach Seattle hopes can bridge the gap between Carroll’s throwback mentality and an evolving NFL. That leaves big shoes for Macdonald to fill, but given his new team’s biggest weakness, they’re shoes that might just fit.

Chris Coduto/Getty Images

The Seahawks’ defense was less than the sum of its parts to wrap the Carroll era

Seattle rose to perennial contention under Carroll via two traits: a smothering defense and an efficient, run-heavy offense. From 2012 to 2015, a stretch in which the Seahawks won 46 regular season games and appeared in two Super Bowls, Carroll’s teams ranked no worse than fourth in the NFL in rushing yards over a given season. His defense ranked first overall in points allowed every one of those years.

That became less and less sustainable as the league evolved toward high impact passing offenses. Carroll eventually leaned away from the run, ranking 17th, 27th, 22nd and 31st in the league in handoffs over his final four seasons. His defense fell into a vortex as well, ranking 22nd, 28th, 26th and then 30th in yards allowed in the same space.

Seattle was able to overcome that and average more than nine wins per season over that closing stretch, but also failed to win a single playoff game. This all happened despite a mishmash of star defensive players and solid starters including, but not limited to:

  • Bobby Wagner
  • Quandre Diggs
  • Jamal Adams
  • DJ Reed
  • Riq Woolen
  • Uchenna Nwosu
  • Devon Witherspoon
  • Leonard Williams
  • Julian Love
  • Jordyn Brooks

That group couldn’t tread water in the turbulent seas of the NFC West. Now Macdonald, brain behind the Baltimore Ravens defense that finished third, then first in the NFL in points allowed in his two seasons as defensive coordinator, gets to work with a group that discarded some of its older members — Diggs, Wagner and Adams are all gone — but brings back Love, Williams, Woolen, Nwosu, and Witherspoon along with 2024 first round pick Byron Murphy.

That’s solid star power, but Macdonald’s strength comes in developing players to the peak of their abilities. Geno Stone and Justin Madubuike emerged as valuable starters under his watch. Patrick Queen, a former first round pick, played the best football of his career after Macdonald became DC (though the addition of Roquan Smith certainly played a role). Kyle Van Noy revived his career, once again, with a nine sack 2023 despite not signing with Baltimore until late September.

Who could this apply to in the Pacific Northwest? Woolen backslid a bit after an impressive rookie campaign. Boye Mafe may be on the brink of a breakout after nine sacks (with only 16 quarterback hits) in 2023. Nwosu returns to the lineup after missing 11 games last year due to injury. Tyrel Dodson was signed after four unremarkable seasons as a Buffalo Bill and Jerome Baker arrived after six years as a Miami Dolphin. Those two aren’t quite Queen and Smith, but Macdonald’s track record suggests he can make that duo a useful binary star system in the middle of the field.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

If that defense can’t improve, Geno Smith can still push Seattle to a winning record

That isn’t a controversial statement. Smith has done it before. He did it the last two years, winning nine games each season.

But the pressure is squarely on his shoulders in 2024. He’s auditioning for a new head coach. He can be released after this season while leaving only $13.5 million behind in dead cap space (and is scheduled to hit free agency in 2026 anyway).

Smith regressed from his surprising, comeback player of the year 2022 form, but still remained an above average passer. His completion rate dropped from a league-best 69.8 to 64.2 even as his average throw distance fell from 7.6 yards to 7.0 (and his receiving corps added Jaxon Smith-Njigba). His touchdown rate dipped (from 30 in 17 games to 20 in 15) and his passer rating slid from 100.9 to 92.1.

Still, he wasn’t bad by any stretch. His four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives led the league. Eliminate garbage time — the snaps taken when the Seahawks’ win probability was either over 80 percent or under 20 percent — and Smith’s 0.161 expected points added (EPA) per dropback was 10th best in the NFL.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

So what caused the numbers downturn? Blocking was a big culprit, as Smith’s pressure rate rose from 22 percent to 25.5, the sixth-worst number in the league. This also made him less effective as a runner, as he left the pocket less often and gained fewer yards per scramble than he did in his impressive 2022 (34 scrambles for 310 yards that year, 20 for 158 in 2023). He was also slightly worse as a passer; his bad throw rate jumped from 11.8 to 14.6. The latter is still a top 10 figure, just not the No. 1 ranking Smith held in his first full season as Seattle’s starter.

Smith turns 34 in October, so it’s likely we’ve already seen his ceiling as a quarterback (though we thought that back in 2021 and, well…). Fortunately for him, Carroll was proactive in adding reinforcements that can prolong his peak.

Metcalf remains a stud. Lockett’s impact may be waning as a speed-focused wideout who’ll turn 32 soon, but his ability to avoid contact has kept extra miles from his odometer. Smith-Njigba is a curious tale who averaged fewer than 10 yards per catch last year and whose 1.26 yards per route run pegged him as less effective than Justin Watson or Wan’Dale Robinson. Still, he’s the same guy who could take over entire Big Ten games at Ohio State, so it would be foolish to write him off after a decent but unremarkable rookie year.

Getting Cross and Lucas back to full health after the two combined for 20 games last season would be a boon to that passing game as well. And if Macdonald would like to establish the run, Walker and Charbonnet remain fresh-legged tailbacks, neither of whom is even 24 years old yet.

Smith should, at the very least, return to 2023 form — again, a guy who was one of the league’s top 10 most efficient quarterbacks when the game mattered. Getting his two rising starting tackles on the field at the same time should only help, though losing Damien Lewis at guard and replacing him with Laken Tomlinson could create issues.

***

The table has been set for Macdonald to succeed in his first season in Seattle. The offense isn’t quite in set-it-and-forget-it mode, but should be solid enough to keep the Seahawks in playoff contention. Where he’ll have to prove himself is on the defensive side of the ball, as his new team has a solid combination of young talent and older players looking to stand out. In the past, Macdonald has been able to maximize those returns, but that only covers two seasons under an established head coach in John Harbaugh.

The bigger concern is, well, the rest of the NFC West is a shark tank. The San Francisco 49ers remain stacked and hungry. The Los Angeles Rams needed half a season to rebuild into a playoff team. The Arizona Cardinals are putting down roots as a future contender (it’s still a year or two away, but it’s beginning to come into focus).

It’s possible Macdonald plays his cards right in year one and still ends up right where Carroll left at nine wins. It’s possible things get worse. But the combination of roster and head coach suggest there’s more reasons to be optimistic about the Seahawks this fall than pessimistic. When you’re replacing a legend on the sideline, that’s about all for which you can hope.

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The Raiders might as well lean into chaos, because it’s their finest attribute

Are the Las Vegas Raiders 2024’s most interesting team?

In a span of five days in 2023, the same NFL team lost one game while scoring zero points and won another by putting up 63. This is the beauty of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Last year’s Raiders team pruned one of the final branches from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree by firing Josh McDaniels after 25 games and a 9-16 record. In his place came the linebacker that helped erase the 2007 New England Patriots’ 19-0 season, Antonio Pierce. Pierce, running a head coaching campaign of equal parts respect for his players and acknowledgment he was not, in fact, Josh McDaniels, went 5-4 at the helm to lock down the full time job for 2024.

Now comes the hard part. Pierce inherits a team that punched above its weight class to wrap up 2023. His starting quarterback will either be:

  • Aidan O’Connell, a 2023 fourth round pick who was, statistically, that year’s third-worst quarterback (ahead of only Mac Jones and Zach Wilson), or
  • Gardner Minshew, a cromulent backup who can operate in a limited system and is already on his fourth NFL team in six seasons.

His top wideout is a 31-year-old coming off his least efficient season since 2015. The running back who led the league in rushing yards in 2022 is now a Green Bay Packer. The edge rush beyond superstar Maxx Crosby will rely on a player who had two sacks between 2021 and 2022 continuing his Pierce-coded breakthrough.

And yet, it feels stupid to write the Raiders off in 2024. Let’s look at how a man who’d never been more than a linebackers coach at the NFL level can continue thriving.

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Raiders can survive with a competent offense. But that’s a big ask.

Las Vegas has one of the league’s grimmer quarterback situations; a timeshare between veteran and young prospect, only instead of a vaunted first round pick, the guy the Raiders hope to mold into a franchise quarterback was a Day 3 pick.

That doesn’t mean Aidan O’Connell can’t emerge as a reliable starter, but his rookie numbers might. On the surface, he was viable; 12 touchdown passes in 11 games against seven interceptions and a 62 percent completion rate. Those aren’t world beating numbers, but his 83.9 passer rating was better than fellow young QBs like Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Sam Howell, or Mac Jones.

Except, well, all those guys got traded this offseason by teams uninterested in developing their talent any further. O’Connell remains, in part because he finished with a flourish. After a rocky start, he threw nine touchdowns against one interception in his final six games, going 3-3 in the process. He also threw for only 212 yards per game, was reliably immobile and averaged a loss of seven yards per sack.

This left his overall impact, even in his best stretch, below average in terms of expected points added (EPA).

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Those numbers paint him as a similar caliber quarterback as the guy who’ll join him on the depth chart this fall. Minshew was a Pro Bowler in 2023, which should tell you all you need to know about the quarterback availability at the NFL’s all-star game. The young journeyman is a reliable backup whose rise has been limited by his struggle to make tough throws in the intermediate range. He blanks defenders in the middle of the field, creating avoidable turnovers with frustrating throws.

Per SIS, Minshew completed just 53.9 percent of his throws to travel between 10 and 19 yards downfield in 2023 and 47.5 percent of all throws to go at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Part of this can be attributed to his inability to remain set in the pocket; his penchant for scrambling, even with minimal pressure, forces him into throws on the run and bad decisions paired with bad footwork.

Sometimes, this works out and he wows you with a big play. Sometimes it fails horribly. Now he gets an offense of playmakers who can bail him out in stretches, though it’s fair to wonder if we’ve seen the last of a truly dominant Davante Adams.

Adams, in part due to quarterback issues, averaged only 6.5 yards per target in 2023 — 103rd best in the NFL and by far his worst number since emerging as a true WR1 in 2016. His 1.95 yards per route run, however, ranked 25th between Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman, which is more optimistic for his 2024.

But Adams will turn 32 years old in December. While his size will help mitigate the loss of speed that comes with age, he may cede some of his absurd target share (175 in 2023!) to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, the latter of whom was sneakily effective in short bursts as a rookie last fall. More importantly, O’Connell or Minshew will have two high profile tight ends to turn short targets into big gains in rookie first rounder Brock Bowers and 2023 second round selection Michael Mayer.

That’s a useful support system for a binary star of flawed quarterbacks, particularly if Zamir White can step into the RB1 role for which he’s been primed. But the biggest asset the Raiders have isn’t on the offensive side of the ball.

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Pierce turned the Las Vegas defense into a genuinely scary unit last fall

Here’s how the Raiders defense looked in eight games under McDaniels:

  • Points allowed per game: 23.4
  • Yards allowed per game: 338
  • Expected pointed added (EPA) allowed per play: 0.038 (26th best in the NFL)

Here’s how the Raiders defense looked in nine games under Pierce:

  • Points allowed per game: 16
  • Yards allowed per game: 325
  • EPA allowed per play: -0.141 (second best in the NFL)

That’s a stark turnaround, even if the team was giving up a similar amount of yardage each week. What sparked the change? Pierce’s group showed up like a bunch of hungry goblins late in the season. Las Vegas had eight turnovers forced in eight games under McDaniels, six of which came in tilts against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Under Pierce, they forced 14 in nine games, including five in a shellacking of the Los Angeles Chargers that sealed deposed head coach Brandon Staley’s fate.

Malcolm Koonce played a significant part of this glow-up. The former third round pick was an afterthought his first two seasons in the league and for the first half of 2023. But after McDaniels was fired, his snap share increased and the former University at Buffalo star shined; all eight of his sacks last year and 14 of his 17 quarterback hits came after Pierce took the reins.

Koonce isn’t yet a full-time player — even in his rise he still played more than two-thirds of the team’s defensive snaps only once, and that was in the final game of 2023 — but his athleticism has shined under Pierce, making him the perfect janitor to clean up the messes Crosby creates. That’s before counting for new arrival Christian Wilkins, who’ll ensure there’s no room to step up in the pocket thanks to his penetration in the middle of the line.

This also glosses over the fact that, even before Wilkins arrival, the Raiders fielded the league’s best run defense under Pierce by a wide margin!

via rbsdm.com

This would have been a boon for your typical, secondary-deficient Raiders team. But last year’s squad showed a pass defense promise we haven’t seen in Las Vegas (and it had been a while since we’d seen it in Oakland, too). Trevon Moehrig is emerging as a potential All-Pro safety. Cornerback Jack Jones was a New England Patriots castoff who allowed a passer rating of just 63.0 in seven games last season. Jakorian Bennett is flawed, but should be better in his second season as a pro.

This all suggests the incredible finish Pierce spurred in 2023 can be replicated in 2024, even if opposing offenses have a little more tape to churn. And with a soft finish to this year’s schedule, another rally could be en route.

***

Look, I’ve gotta wrap this up. I could easily go 3,000 words on the Raiders, who may be 2024’s most interesting team. There’s a lot to like about this roster, and this coach, even though most of the optimism hinges on a tiny sample size.

Las Vegas has the potential to compete for a playoff spot and a head coach that was able to glean the most from his guys when given the opportunity. The question now is whether Antonio Pierce can keep that going or if the bounce and optimism that comes from firing Josh McDaniels is a one-time thing.

If I had to bet, I’d lean in to the over on Las Vegas’s line of 6.5 wins this season.

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The 49ers are staring at their Super Bowl window and doing their best to jam it open

A salary cap reckoning looms for the Niners. But that’s all the way in 2025.

The impressive feat isn’t that the San Francisco 49ers have been to the NFC Conference Championship or better in four of the last five seasons. The impressive feat is that they did so with Jimmy Garoppolo behind center for more than half those campaigns, all in the midst of trading three first round picks to select one of the millennium’s biggest draft busts.

There’s no point playing the “what if” game in an NFL loaded with moving parts. The past half-decade has been agonizing for San Francisco, left stranded at “good” on the way to greatness thanks to an engine lacking the extra gear to be the difference. General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan were able to offset low wattage quarterback play and the missing star power of those forgone Day 1 picks with savvy additions elsewhere. It hasn’t been enough to result in a Super Bowl win.

Now, the NFL’s hard salary cap threatens to change the makeup of this team after 2024. We’ve already seen this manifest in Brandon Aiyuk’s trade request and the team’s reticence to offer him the $30+ million annual salary befitting an All-Pro wide receiver. Six different Niners are scheduled for cap hits of at least $20 million in 2025, creating a future in which San Francisco’s salary sheet sees 60 percent of the team’s spending devoted to just those players — and the Niners are currently an estimated $38.9 million over next year’s cap, per Over the Cap. That’s before considering a contract extension for Brock Purdy, the seventh round quarterback scheduled to make just over $2.1 million the next two years combined.

As such, this may be the last chance for the 49ers to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy with their current core. Without some team-friendly pay cuts, a change is coming. Fortunately for San Francisco, there’s enough proven talent to both make a run at the title in 2024 and survive any loss of star power in 2025.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Brock Purdy leaned in and emerged as one of the NFL’s most efficient deep quarterbacks

Purdy is the reason why San Francisco could burn three first round picks on Trey Lance, a player who’d appear in eight total games as a 49er. The former Iowa State star needs no introduction as the most famous final selection of any NFL Draft. Purdy rose from third stringer to Super Bowl starter, paving the way for Lynch to deal Lance away for the minimal cost of a fourth round pick.

The most striking thing about Purdy’s emergence in 2023 was his ability to work inside Shanahan’s game plan and turn his rookie season weakness — a tendency to float deep throws — into a relative strength. Purdy completed only four of 12 passes to travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in seven games in 2022. In 16 regular season games last fall, he attempted 38 such throws and completed 23 of them, per SIS.

Those 38 deep balls were only 23rd most in the NFL last season, but his 60.5 percent completion rate was tops among all quarterbacks. How’d that work? Because Purdy also peppered the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield) with accurate throws to a lineup filled with playmakers. Shanahan could layer his threats — Aiyuk deep(ish), Deebo Samuel waiting to crush short routes and run after catch afterward and George Kittle in the middle — to effectively diffuse defenses and create space for the deep shots opposing secondaries didn’t quite expect.

The end result was seven games in which Purdy averaged better than 10 yards per pass attempt. It manifests in passing charts like this, where a concentration of chain-moving intermediate throws:

via nextgenstats.nfl.com

creates single coverage opportunities like this:

Everything needs to work correctly for this clock to tick, from Shanahan’s play calling to Aiyuk’s ability to get open to Purdy’s rainbow to the spot he knows his top wideout will be. But Aiyuk isn’t merely a cog. He was ultra efficient last season; his 3.0 yards per route run (YPRR) ranked third in the NFL behind only Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins last fall.

That’s the danger in letting someone like Aiyuk go. While San Francisco has the capacity to replace him — there’s a reason they spent this year’s 31st overall pick on Ricky Pearsall — there’s also an inherent risk there. Lose the guy who can maximize Purdy’s perfectly timed deep shots and you take a gear out of the Niners’ offensive engine.

Of course, there are other gears in place to keep the team Formula 1 fresh. There are three 2023 first-team All-Pros Purdy can target on checkdowns; George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Juszczyk. Deebo Samuel remains to handle whatever responsibilities Shanahan can throw at him. Jauan Jennings rises up when it matters most (and when opponents are most dialed in on all the other heavy hitters in the lineup).

Factor in a run game that averaged nearly five yards per carry, and you’ve got the league’s top offense — by a wide margin.

via rbsdm.com and the author

This all points to a unit that can handle some attrition, even if it means Purdy may not lead the league in deep ball efficiency going forward. While that won’t necessarily be a glaring issue, it could be of some concern if a good defense can’t rise back to greatness.

San Francisco is relying on recovering stars and veteran additions to be elite again

The Niners were dealt a pair of brutal blows in 2023. All-Pro safety Tanaloa Hufanga, in the midst of a season in which he’d stamped his claim as a true deterrent in the middle of the field, tore his ACL in the 10th game of the season. Then, 12 plays into his Super Bowl 58, inside linebacker Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles. This created vulnerabilities against the quarterback you least want to create an opening for, and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs eventually prevailed 25-22 in overtime.

Since both those injuries came late in the season, they’ll have an impact on 2024. Hufanga is shooting to be ready for the team’s season opener but still waiting on the all clear from doctors. Greenlaw is also aiming for a Week 1 return, but that would be a seven month turnaround for an injury that generally takes nine months to heal.

That’s a concern for a defense that was good, but not elite, with those two guys in the lineup for the majority of 2023. San Francisco ranked third in the NFL in points allowed last season but eighth in yards given up and yards per play and 10th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per snap. Strong numbers for sure, but not nearly as dominant as the 2022 group that led the league in points, yards and EPA allowed.

New, veteran arrivals will help. Oren Burks, roasted in the Super Bowl in Greenlaw’s stead, has been replaced by former All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell. Arik Armstead’s old spot will be filled by Maliek Collins, fresh off his finest season as a pass rusher (five sacks, 18 quarterback hits). Chase Young and Randy Gregory have been swapped out of a deep edge rushing rotation for Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, who had 15 sacks between them in 2023. Tracy Walker’s here as Hufanga insurance.

These are all solid, common sense moves, but its fair to wonder if these veterans can continue to contribute at a high level as they age into their 30s. For San Francisco to truly take a step forward and move toward a new era in comfort it will need young contributors to step up like Hufanga did two years ago.

Safety Ji’Ayir Brown is well on that path after a solid rookie campaign. The 2024 NFL Draft dropped cornerback Renardo Green (second round) and safety Malik Mustapha (fourth) onto the depth chart as well. Big efforts from that group would go a long way in shoring up any concerns about the team’s secondary depth.

***

It’s possible that concern is overblown. The Niners’ misery is a level of success most teams would kill for. Their ability to win regardless of circumstance means they’re destined to run toward the top of an unbalanced NFC for the next five years no matter who leaves.

And indeed, if Lynch and Shanahan continue to turn mid-draft prospects into All-Pros on a regular basis, it won’t matter if they reduce some first round selections into cinders or lose some of the more expensive guys they’ve developed to the open market. But that’s no easy task, making it fair to wonder if 2024 becomes a hinge for a team that’s been, for the most part, rigid in its place as a Super Bowl contender.

This only serves to focus the microscope more tightly on one of the NFL’s most scrutinized teams. The 49ers have the personnel to make another Super Bowl run. Now they have to prove they can get over the hump with this group as significant changes loom on the horizon.

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Can Daniel Jones lead the Giants to another low expectations miracle?

Jones could be at his breaking point in New York, but the Giants’ 2024 will depend on a young secondary — and new DC.

2022 went as well as the New York Giants could have hoped. First year head coach Brian Daboll found a way to turn a chest of broken toys into an army.

Saquon Barkley stayed healthy and proved he could be a workhorse running back. Daniel Jones dialed back his average throw distance and upped his efficiency. A flawed defense came together near the end zone and a season with few expectations extended to a Wild Card win in Minneapolis before a blowout loss to the Super Bowl bound Philadelphia Eagles ended things.

2023 looked more like we’d expected, in unexpected ways. Jones reverted back to “surprised baby giraffe” form while going 1-5 as a starter before tearing his ACL. The lack of a passing game and weakened offensive line meant Barkley had nowhere to run; his yards per carry dropped from 4.4 to 3.9, but his 93 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were a top 10 mark. Daboll feuded with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and New York’s defense was great at creating turnovers but little else.

The Giants went 6-11. Only the wallowing crapulence of the Washington Commanders kept them from sliding to the bottom of the NFC East. That’s also enough to keep them from the cupcake-heavy schedule that helped boost the team’s 2022 winning campaign. New York’s win total is currently set at 6.5 and its playoff odds sit at a healthy +400, per Draft Kings.

Let’s talk about how reasonable those expectations are.

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Daniel Jones’ future in New York depends squarely on his 2024

Jones is at the precipice of an enormous crossroad for his second time as a New York Giant. With his rookie contract set to expire, he rose up and outdueled Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings for a Wild Card win. The following offseason, the Giants offered him a four year, $160 million extension with $82 million guaranteed. At the same time, they only franchise tagged Barkley, the running back endemic to Jones’ 2022 success.

That extension wasn’t cheap, but it can effectively be a two-year deal (with a reasonable dead cap number) if the team finds it necessary to jettison its former franchise QB. And Jones’ 2023 play was worthy of being set off on an ice floe.

While his completion rate rose, the negative play concerns that plagued him pre-2022 returned. He threw six interceptions in six games — a career-worst 3.8 percent pick rate — was sacked on nearly 16 percent of his dropbacks and fumbled four times (though, to his credit, he only lost one of those). He roasted the undermanned Arizona Cardinals en route to 321 yards and a pair of touchdown passes in Week 2. Otherwise, he failed to throw for more than 203 yards or find the end zone through the air in any of his other games.

I know the video above isn’t great quality but please do give it a click if you’d like to see both famous Manning brothers reflexively throw up surrender cobras at the very moment Jones destroys the Giants’ scoring hopes.

These are all indicators of terrible play exacerbated by a quarterback coming back from injury and dealing with the loss of his bell cow tailback; Barkley, failing to find a long term contract in New York, instead signed with the Philadelphia Eagles because the football gods’ capacity for cruelty is unmatched. He’ll be replaced by Devin Singletary, who is capable of being a slightly above average runner in the right situation (i.e. one with a better offensive line than the Giants’) and rookie Tyrone Tracy except, whoops, Tracy was carted out of a preseason practice with a non-contact leg injury because, well, see above about the football gods (in fairness, Tracy seems to be better than his injury first appeared).

But Jones may be able to… well, not thrive per se, but match the statistically average heights of his 2022. No. 5 overall draft pick Malik Nabers already looks like a nightmare matchup for any cornerback in one-on-one coverage. Darius Slayton no longer has to deal with the pressure of being the team’s top wideout (a role in which he exceeded expectations) and can get back to the downfield routes where he’s most effective. The offensive line is still a concern, but signing veterans Jon Runyan Jr., Jermaine Eluemunor and Greg Van Roten will at the very least provide a higher floor of play while giving disappointing former first round pick Evan Neal a chance to reset and find his place in the NFL.

So what should we expect? Jones thrived with an average throw distance that dropped to a career low 6.4 yards downfield in ’22. That moved slightly to 6.8 last fall, but in both cases he had a stronger run game and weaker receiving corps, at least on paper, than he’ll have this fall. Nabers feels like the kind of player you can chuck it towards and hope he’ll come down with it, but he’s also a rookie whose camp highlights have come against a secondary with little name recognition. Further complicating matters is the fact no tight end on the roster has ever topped 300 receiving yards in a season.

It feels like the formula that worked in 2022 won’t be as successful this fall. Jones will have to prove he can make the kind of difficult throws he’s struggled with in his career to date. And if that goes the way most reasonable fans would expect, it’s going to put pressure on a young defense with several nice parts but little cohesive impact thus far.

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

If some prospects pull through, the Giants have the defense to overcome whatever their offense throws at them

This offseason’s marquee addition was Brian Burns, who arrived in New York at a far lower trade cost than many of us expected the Carolina Panthers to glean in return for their best starter. He gets to pair with Kayvon Thibodeaux to create a genuinely frightening edge rush. Add in Dexter Lawrence over center — fresh off back-to-back All-Pro selections — and you’ve got the elements of a chaos-creating front.

Where New York needs to prove its worth is behind that group (though, admittedly, the line spots next to Lawrence leave room for improvement as well). Bobby Okereke is rock solid as an inside linebacker. First round rookie Deonte Banks gave up just a 79.6 passer rating when targeted in his debut season. This all served to help a unit that was above average against the pass in 2023 despite ranking 26th in points allowed.

via rbsdm.com and the author

But Xavier McKinney departed in free agency for the Green Bay Packers. The secondary around Banks will be populated by guys like Cordale Flott, Dane Belton, Dru Phillips, Tyler Nubin, Jason Pinnock, Isaiah Simmons and Tre Hawkins. There’s talent there — Simmons was a former first round selection while Flott, Phillips and Nubin were each selected on Day 2 in 2022 or later — but that potential hasn’t quite solidified on Sundays.

***

How that young defense plays will be the key behind whether or not Daboll can even approach the success of his debut season. The man tasked with fostering that development is new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, who spent the last three years designing the Tennessee Titans’ defense. Under Bowen, Tennessee ranked 10th in expected points added (EPA) allowed in 2021, 21st in 2022 and 28th in 2023 before being ushered out the door alongside Mike Vrabel this offseason.

So, not ideal!

But New York has exceeded expectations in the past. Not grand ones, mind you, but this remains a team capable of surprises. Jones can operate inside a specific offense, one that has shrunk in some capacity without Barkley but expanded in another thanks to Nabers’s arrival. Burns and Thibodeaux can create the kind of pressure that makes life easier for all the young guys in the secondary. Squint, and you can see how this team slides into postseason consideration.

If that doesn’t pan out, well, a trip to the top of the draft order to find Jones’ replacement works, too.

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A good Deshaun Watson can lead the Browns to glory. History isn’t on his side.

The Watson trade has been a disaster, and the clock is ticking to change that narrative.

There were several problems with the Cleveland Browns’ decision to trade for Deshaun Watson. Foremost among them was more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself later described as a pattern of “predatory behavior.”

This didn’t keep Cleveland, desperate in its quest for a franchise quarterback that could exceed the modest heights of Baker Mayfield or Derek Anderson, from mortgaging its future to acquire him. Not only did the Browns ship three first round picks, one third rounder and two fourth rounders to the Houston Texans, they also gave Watson the largest fully guaranteed contract extension in NFL history. A $230 million deal means the quarterback is on the roster at cap hits of just under $64 million annually through the 2026 season.

At the time, this made sense from an on-field standpoint if not an off-field one. Mayfield’s quarterback rating dropped by a dozen points between 2020 and 2021, vacating the momentum of Cleveland’s first playoff win since the franchise’s rebirth with a losing season. That he went on to be, statistically, 2022’s worst starting quarterback, only reinforced that.

Only… Watson hasn’t been better. He also hasn’t been available. Thanks to league suspension and injury, he’s played only a dozen games in two seasons as a Brown. When he’s been on the field, he’s sprinkled occasionally inspired play into a bland casserole of underwhelming play. Which is a problem for a team a 38-year-old Joe Flacco was capable of pushing to the postseason.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Watson hasn’t been close to the player he was in Houston

Let’s separate Watson into his Houston era and his Cleveland one. As a Texan, he was a revelation — albeit one cultivating a dark reputation off the field. In his four seasons with the team that drafted him, he made an immediate impact as a player with MVP credibility. His 104.5 passer rating was elite and he averaged more than 500 rushing yards per 17 games to bolster his case as a game-changer.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

The chart above measures expected points added (EPA) per play and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) to grade quarterbacks based on their impact on the game. Watson’s composite ranked third best among passers to play at least 1,000 snaps between 2017 and 2020, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.

Conversely, there have been 41 quarterbacks to field at least 450 snaps since 2022 — Watson clocks in with 452 as a Brown. Here’s where he lands in the composite rankings.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Goooooooo! Watson has been the league’s 34th most efficient quarterback in a league where there are 32 starters. He’d been less essential than passers like Taylor Heinicke, Kenny Pickett and Gardner Minshew. Those three guys, combined, made roughly $14 million last fall — or roughly 22 percent of Watson’s $63.7 million cap hit in 2024.

There have been good moments cutting through that fog to help provide a glimmer of hope for the Browns. Watson was genuinely great against the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals last fall, throwing four touchdown passes without an interception in a pair of games Cleveland won by a total of 54 to three.

Those also happened to be the only two games in 2023 in which he didn’t throw an interception, and that includes a tilt with the Indianapolis Colts in which he threw only five passes.

This is a problem, because the Browns badly need him to simply be competent to keep their AFC North title hopes alive.

The Browns’ supporting cast could be elite once more

Aside from Watson, the biggest question the Browns face is whether Nick Chubb will return to world-eater form after last year’s torn ACL limited him to only two games. The four-time Pro Bowler is an other-worldly runner, a player whose ability to cut and manipulate the turf beneath his feet suggest a flexible relationship with the physical world. He was chugging along in a small sample size before last year’s injury as well — 170 yards on only 28 carries.

There’s reason to be concerned, however. He’s not in the midst of a superhuman, Adrian Peterson-style recovery. He’s currently got no timeline for return and, even without the injury, is headed toward a break point for NFL running backs. He turns 29 years old in December and has more than 1,200 carries to his credit, which is when many similarly successful backs begin to lose their top gear.

His absence wasn’t fatal last season, but Cleveland’s yards per carry dropped from 4.7 in 2022 (11th best in the NFL) to 3.9 (26th) without him. Missing more time will mean more strain on a passing game that struggled consistently thrive last season. It will also mean more pressure on Amari Cooper and David Njoku to carry the passing game.

The two were remarkable in 2023, thriving despite generally terrible quarterback play in a season where five different guys started behind center (and Flacco was the best). Cooper’s 1,250 yards last season in 15 games were remarkable; his 2.29 adjusted yards per route run ranked 13th best in the NFL last season, sandwiched between Keenan Allen and Mike Evans (per Sumer Sports). Njoku, playing despite facial burns much of the year, had a career best 81 catches and 882 receiving yards. His 1.6 yards per route run were seventh best among tight ends.

But each carries questions of his own into 2024 beyond just “what if his quarterback(s) stinks again?” Cooper is now 30 years old, and while his size insulates him from a loss of athleticism, it’s fair to wonder when an age related decline is coming. Njoku put up the best numbers of his career but this was as much of a volume game as anything; his 7.2 yards per target were his lowest since 2019.

The Browns can suffer minor downturns from all three if the quality of quarterbacking improves. They may be able to make it back to the postseason even if the man behind center is subpar thanks to 2023’s top-ranked defense in terms of both yards allowed and passing defense efficiency.

via rbsdm.com

Myles Garrett remains to mash opposing quarterbacks into a puddle. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has developed into one of the best young off-ball linebackers in the league. Greg Newsome II was the ugly duckling among the team’s three starting cornerbacks and he was still PRETTY DANG GOOD.

Passer rating allowed in coverage, Browns cornerbacks 2023:

  • Martin Emerson: 46.3
  • Denzel Ward: 56.2
  • Greg Newsome II: 74.8

All those guys are back in 2024. So are safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill. And while Za’Darius Smith’s 5.5 sacks were a low result for him, his 29 pressures were only eight fewer than Garrett’s and a top 30 number last fall. Smith, Shelby Harris and Jordan Hicks are the only projected regulars over the age of 29 on the roster.

***

This all creates a frightening reality for both the Browns and the rest of the AFC North. If Watson can even approach his Houston Texans form — the way he played before more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct were levied against him — he’ll be the best quarterback the team has had in decades. If he can merely be as efficient as 2020 Baker Mayfield, he’s got a stronger supporting cast capable of tripling the franchise’s postseason wins since 1995.

Cleveland’s defense will remain elite. Its offense won’t be able to match that, but could catch up in stretches. But that hasn’t been the case for Watson unless he’s been playing some of the worst teams in football — teams leagues below the competition he’ll face in a stacked AFC North.

There’s no way out but through for the Browns. Their bet on a guy an NFL review suggested was a sexual predator has thus far failed, sinking premium draft picks and now roughly a quarter of their salary cap into a player who hasn’t even cracked the top 30 quarterbacks in his limited time in Ohio. Maybe Cleveland could eat $46 million in dead salary cap space next offseason by designating him a post-June 1 release, but it looks like this is the guy the Browns are stuck with through at least 2025.

That leaves an offense whose fate will be decided by a bunch of “ifs”. And a defense that can carry this team even in stretches when none of those ifs pan out.

Tua Tagovailoa is approaching his Kirk Cousins era, and it may not be enough for the Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation may leave him, and the Dolphins, in limbo.

Tua Tagovailoa, as it stands, is set to become a free agent in 2025. That’s not typically something that happens to the NFL’s reigning passing yardage leader.

There are, of course, several ways to remedy this. The Miami Dolphins could come to a long term contract extension with the quarterback it once drafted fifth overall. Given the current market, that would cost something like $275 million over five years with a $200 million guarantee to match Trevor Lawrence’s deal elsewhere in Florida.

Or the Dolphins could let him play out 2024 knowing it has the right to use the franchise tag to retain him next offseason for one year and something like $40 million guaranteed. If that works out, they could do it again in 2026 for $48 million. While that isn’t common, it’s not unheard of. It’s what the Washington Commanders did with Kirk Cousins.

And that, actually, is a pretty good comparison for Tagovailoa, a player with solid numbers, Pro Bowl accolades and a dearth of meaningful postseason success.

2024 may be Tagovailoa’s defining line as an NFL quarterback

We already know Tagovailoa can be an above average passer in a lineup loaded with weapons. We know he can guide Miami to the playoffs. We don’t know if he can be the difference between winning and losing once he gets there.

In four years, Tagovailoa is 32-19 as a regular season starter and never had a losing season in the lineup. He’s also got only one playoff appearance to show for it, accounting for injury and a rookie campaign that didn’t really begin until the Dolphins’ seventh game of 2020. That Wild Card start was a disaster on a frigid day in Kansas City against the soon-to-be-crowned back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

Tagovailoa completed only 20 of his 39 attempts for 199 yards. Take away a 53-yard touchdown strike to Tyreek Hill — Miami’s only touchdown of the day — and that falls to a 50 percent completion rate and a disgusting 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Skylar Thompson, the third stringer forced into the Dolphins’ 2023 Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills, averaged 4.9 yards per pass (albeit while connecting on 18 of 45 attempts for a tidy 40 percent completion rate).

While there’s hope Tagovailoa would be better in a more hospitable environment (i.e. one that doesn’t give spectators frostbite), his big 2023 numbers fail to back this up. The fourth-year quarterback had eight games last fall where he recorded a passer rating of 100.0 or better. All eight came against teams with losing records. In six games against teams who made it to the postseason, Tagovailoa was significantly worse.

That frustrating record against good teams includes two games that ended the regular season in which the Dolphins could have clinched the AFC East — losses to the Ravens and Bills where Tagovailoa threw two interceptions apiece.

This all dulls the luster of a season in which Tagovailoa was a statistical breakthrough. His 123.6 expected points added (EPA) on passing plays was second highest in the NFL behind only Brock Purdy. He completed more than 50 percent of his deep throws (31 of 61, per SIS). He did absolutely filthy things to the poor Denver Broncos.

This only serves to make Miami’s decision about its prospective franchise quarterback more difficult. The Dolphins are 5-10 in games Tagovailoa hasn’t started. Take away his 2020 numbers, where Ryan Fitzpatrick was the team’s early QB1, and that drops to 2-6. This all feels like compelling evidence to pay him, but I’m not sure it is. The players who’ve started in his stead the last three seasons are Thompson, Jacoby Brissett and Teddy Bridgewater — three guys you’d sorta expect to carry you to a 25 percent win rate.

If Tagovailoa remains perfectly serviceable but rarely great, he could wind up in contract limbo

Back to Cousins. Cousins’ rookie contract expired in 2016 after a 9-7 stint in his first season as Washington’s full-time starter. He was franchise tagged for 2016 and once again finished with a winning record, albeit just barely at 8-7-1. Those two years constitute two of the team’s three winning seasons since 2008.

Those two years also ended with zero playoff wins, leading Washington to cast its lot elsewhere as Cousins left for a fully guaranteed three year, $84 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Through it all, he’s been a Pro Bowl quarterback who consistently puts up top 10 numbers. He also has a lone postseason victory to his credit — a Wild Card win in New Orleans over the Saints (to his credit, Cousins played a significant role in knocking off Drew Brees) — in 12 years as a pro.

Miami could see this as an argument against paying Tagovailoa. After all, Minnesota surrounded him with Pro Bowl targets (Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson) and failed to make it to even an NFC title game (a place the team had been with Case Keenum at quarterback). Or it could see it as an argument in favor, as Washington gave Cousins a sizable chunk of guaranteed money just to leave his franchise stranded in the wilderness when it came to passers in the years that followed. Behold, the list of quarterbacks to start games in the five seasons after Kirk Cousins left the Commanders:

  • Alex Smith
  • Josh Johnson
  • Colt McCoy
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Dwayne Haskins
  • Case Keenum
  • Kyle Allen
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Garrett Gilbert
  • Taylor Heinicke
  • Carson Wentz
  • Sam Howell

Gross!

There’s also, of course, a hybrid model in which Tagovailoa gets tagged one season and extended the next. Or tagged and traded. Or signed to an incentive laden deal with less guaranteed cash but higher annual salaries. There are several ways Miami could handle this. All we know for now is head coach Mike McDaniel is happy to go back to battle with his left-handed quarterback and capable of pushing him to great heights behind an explosive roster of playmakers.

But! At what point does the firework factory burn down? Tyreek Hill is coming off his most impactful season as a pro but also just turned 30 years old. Raheem Mostert is 32 and free agent signee Odell Beckham Jr. will be 32 in November. De’Von Achane averaged nearly eight yards per carry as a rookie but only played 300 snaps thanks to injury.

The offensive line that cleared a path for a league high 5.1 yards per carry has to replace two thirds of its interior starters now that Robert Hunt and Connor Williams are no longer on the roster (Hunt is the more significant loss there). What happens if opposing defenses catch on to McDaniel’s wizardry and shut down the fast-acting passing game that served Tagovailoa so well (his 2.26 seconds from snap to throw were lowest in the NFL) and force him to cycle through his progressions on a regular basis?

These are all valid concerns that could have serious effects on Tagovailoa’s contract year. And we haven’t yet gotten to a defense that may rely heavily on a cache of veterans on the wrong side of 30 like Shaquil Barrett (update: Barrett retired from football shortly after publication), Calais Campbell, Jordan Poyer, Marcus Maye and Jalen Ramsey!

***

The Dolphins propped Tagovailoa up by surrounding him with veteran playmakers. That move paid dividends in the regular season but has yet to result in postseason glory; the last Miami head coach with a playoff win is Dave by-god Wannstedt. There’s an expiration date on that strategy, and it comes either when your young quarterback fails to level up or the stars you brought in to speed his development hit the downslope of their careers.

2024 might not shed any light on the date printed on the Dolphins’ label. Or it could be the year that proves Tagovailoa is worth $200 million guaranteed. Or it could be the season Miami sheds a one-and-done playoff destiny for a rebuild. The most likely outcome is somewhere in between. Whether Tagovailoa is great, good, or terrible, this team should still be pretty entertaining along the way.

I regret to inform you the Eagles have reloaded once more

Howie Roseman appears to have made all the right moves to reverse 2023’s spiral.

The 2023 Philadelphia Eagles were the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers in disguise.

The 2020 Steelers started out 11-0 as whispers of fraudulence followed them to the top of the NFL standings. They finished that season on a 1-5 streak capped by an ignominious loss to Baker Mayfield as a home favorite in the Wild Card round.

The 2023 Eagles started out 10-1 as whispers of fraudulence followed them to the top of the NFL standings. They finished that season on a 1-6 streak capped by an ignominious loss to Baker Mayfield as a home favorite in the Wild Card round.

That loss to the Browns effectively shut the door on Ben Roethlisberger’s era as a playoff-caliber quarterback. Pittsburgh has recorded three winning seasons in the three years since and been back to the playoffs twice, but hasn’t been remotely threatening in that stretch. This would all bode poorly for the Eagles, except, well, they’re not relying on a noodle-armed veteran to lead them back from the brink with a depleted lineup of playmakers.

Instead, they’ve got Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Yes, we should all be at least a little scared of the Eagles in 2024

In simple terms, the Eagles have too much talent for last year’s spiral to cascade across an offseason. Hurts still has Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert as his top targets. D’Andre Swift has been replaced as the team’s lead back by Barkley. Jason Kelce’s retirement surely stings, but general manager Howie Roseman addressed that in 2022 when he drafted Cam Jurgens in the second round to be the next man up screaming “[expletive] my life” on fourth-and-short Brotherly Shoves.

Let’s start with that line. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson make up one of the league’s best tackle combinations. Landon Dickerson is a top 10 guard who signed an $84 million extension this offseason. Jurgens and Tyler Steen will be pushed into larger roles than they’ve ever seen in their NFL careers, but each was a Day 2 draft pick for a franchise that’s done exceptional work developing offensive linemen.

Needless to say, expectations are high for that group despite turnover.

This is all vital for a Hurts comeback. The fourth-year quarterback wasn’t bad in 2023; in fact he was exactly league average. His 89.1 passer rating was a drop of more than 10 points from 2022’s Super Bowl campaign but still landed right in the midpoint for NFL quarterbacks, producing a 100 rating+ (think ERA+, but for QBs).

He can afford to be average with an offense built for destruction. Last year’s Eagles ranked in the top 10 in both points scored and yards gained. THey ranked seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play and ninth in EPA per dropback despite a quarterback who, statistically, should have left them in the middle of the pack.

Of course, the offense isn’t the concern here. Philly had two significant issues to address this offseason. The Eagles’ secondary, led by veterans nearing or on the wrong side of 30 (James Bradberry, Darius Slay, Kevin Byard) fell off in a big way. This was exacerbated by frustrating play from off-ball linebackers in the middle of the field that topped out at below average when it came to both coverage and run-stopping.

And then, reinforcements. New arrivals Devin White and Oren Burks were each exposed in coverage last postseason — White by not playing enough for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that sat him, Burks by playing too much after Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl — but they add veteran depth to a position that badly needs it. Jeremiah Trotter Jr.’s lack of elite athleticism dropped him to the fifth round of this year’s draft, but he’s a high-upside addition who’ll be immediately welcomed by fans who watched his dad spend nearly a decade with the franchise.

That left holes in the secondary that needed to be filled and a 2024 NFL Draft board that shook out perfectly in Philly’s favor. No defensive back was selected before the Eagles’ 22nd overall pick, giving Roseman the opportunity to make Toledo stud Quinyon Mitchell the first corner drafted. When Iowa safety/cornerback Cooper DeJean slid from his expected landing spot in the first round, Roseman struck a deal to trade up and snag him with the 40th pick.

If he’s not able to punch up the safety position or at slot corner? Welp, CJ Gardner-Johnson, vital to the team’s 2022 Super Bowl run behind six interceptions and infinite confidence, is back on the roster after an injury-marred season with the Detroit Lions.

None of these players are sure things, but Roseman took a team pressed against the salary cap strain of big contracts and landed low cost contributors who can fix the team’s fatal flaws. Of course, that doesn’t mean we can pencil Philadelphia in for a division title yet.

The concerns? Jalen Hurts’ backslide and a patched-up defense

Let’s start with the more compelling of the two. Hurts, as previously mentioned, was an average quarterback in 2023. This would have been fine if not for the vacated potential his breakthrough 2022 created.

Hurts’ average target distance rose (8.1 yards downfield to 8.7) but his yards per attempt dropped (8.0 to 7.2) as he regressed following a season in which he ranked second in MVP voting to Patrick Mahomes. Much of this came down to indecision in the pocket. His time to throw rose from 2.46 seconds in 2022 — one of the 15 lowest numbers for starting quarterbacks — to 2.91 in 2023, second highest only behind Justin Fields.

Hurts also moved away from what helped him break through as a young quarterback. The intermediate and deep routes over the middle that broke up defenses and created space declined. Throws over the middle made up 38 percent of his passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield (53 of 136) in 2022. In 2023, they counted for only 31 percent of his attempts (49 of 157, per SIS).

He was also less effective as a runner. Buying extra time in the pocket left room to stand back and find more deep routes, but also limited his running lanes. His rushing yards dropped from 50 to 35 per game and his yards per scramble dropped from 7.8 to 6.8, which was a career low.

Is this something that can be fixed with minor tweaks and a default mode of “whatever, A.J. Brown’s over the middle down there somewhere?” Since Hurts’ bad throw rate remained mostly the same and his on-target rate climbed to a career best 78.9 percent, I’m inclined to think yes. But “above average” and “MVP candidate” are two different worlds. Hurts may struggle to cross that boundary in 2024.

Additionally, while Roseman’s offseason makes a ton of sense on paper it could still fail to pan out. Philly put in work to overhaul a defense in need of run-stopping reinforcements in the middle of the field and pass deterrents in the secondary. Mitchell and DeJean are rookies. Gardner-Johnson played only three games last season and hasn’t played more than 12 in any year since 2020.

White was a liability for a Tampa team that didn’t see a role for him in its biggest games of the year. Burks is a useful depth option unable to thrive in a bigger role. Trotter and Nakobe Dean are two players who were once considered first round picks whose stock fell leading up to the draft. Dean has yet to prove he belongs in a starting lineup and Trotter could face similar struggles.

The guy who had more than a quarter of the team’s sacks last fall, Haason Reddick, has been replaced by Bryce Huff. Huff shined in a 10-sack 2023, but had only 7.5 career sacks in three seasons before that. Fletcher Cox won’t be part of the lineup for the first time since 2011.

***

Of course, turnover is normal when it comes to running a franchise. Roseman has the Eagles set up to overcome it better than most. Philadelphia is walking a tightrope between blockbuster contracts and bargains, veteran starters and rising stars.

Everything the Eagles did this season was in service of patching the holes that sunk their 2023. Each move made sense. The 2024 roster will throw a combination of young prospects and veteran names at the weak points that led to Philly’s Steelers-ing. On paper, it should work like a charm.

But on paper, a 10-1 team shouldn’t disintegrate in the playoffs against Baker Mayfield. We’ll see how it turns out.

The Buccaneers success hinges on Baker Mayfield being better than Tom Brady (again)

Baker Mayfield did what late-stage Tom Brady couldn’t, which is … wild.

The 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like they were destined for the Caleb Williams lottery. Instead, they won the NFC South.

The first year post-Tom Brady was kinder to Tampa than it was to the New England Patriots. The Bucs improved from that 2022 squad, defending their divisional crown while winning one more regular season game (nine compared to eight) and tacking on a Wild Card victory over the freefalling Philadelphia Eagles.

That was enough to inspire Tampa Bay to run it back. Baker Mayfield, signed for backup quarterback money in 2023 before emerging as a Pro Bowler and top-15 passer, re-signed for three years and $100 million. Mike Evans, still churning out 1,000-yard seasons a decade into his career, returned on a two-year, $41 million deal. Head coach Todd Bowles, thrown into the fire by Bruce Arians’ 2022 offseason retirement, stuck around as head coach.

The Buccaneers aren’t the same team they were in 2023. Several pieces are missing, including some significant turnover on the defensive side of the ball. But the team’s success last season rejected the idea of a rebuild and made the path of least resistance continuity rather than a youth movement.

That could be a problem with the much of the NFC South primed for improvement. But it’s a move that makes sense given 2023’s most surprising revelation.

Baker Mayfield was quietly a top 10-adjacent quarterback in 2023

Here’s a bad argument to have; does Mayfield’s 2023 dull the luster of Brady’s accomplishments with the Bucs? The former top overall pick was forced into a similar situation as the one that eventually ushered the future Hall of Famer to retirement. The interior of his line was a mess, the running game woefully inefficient and the time to throw in the pocket minimal.

Despite this, and despite being 2022’s worst starting quarterback, Mayfield thrived. He threw more touchdowns, had a better quarterback rating, won more games and was responsible for more expected points added (EPA) per play.

Brady, a 43-year-old man with very little mobility, was forced into quick releases and short passes en route to an underwhelming finale to a legendary career. Mayfield used his mobility to his advantage (his 29 scrambles were a career high, per Pro Football Reference), stood in the face of pressure longer and finished the season sandwiched between Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff when it came to EPA/play, good for 10th overall.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

He did this with great wideouts, useful blocking along the edges and little else. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were their usual dynamic selves. Tristan Wirfs remained a one-man wrecking crew and Luke Goedeke proved capable of holding down the other tackle spot opposite him.

The middle of the line remained a mess; Tampa’s 2.1 yards before contact per rush was second-worst in the NFL. Its 3.4 yards per carry ranked dead last. Cade Otton put up decent numbers in his second season as a pro, but his yards per route run didn’t even crack the top 50 among tight ends.

First round pick Graham Barton will help. The Duke tackle is expected to kick inside where he can replace retired center Ryan Jensen, whose absence the last two seasons played a significant role in the team’s weakness in the middle. The guard combination of Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch isn’t exactly inspiring, though new addition Sua Opeta can help. The running game could still be a disaster behind Rachaad White — statistically the league’s least efficient full-time back — Chase Edmonds and the rest of a tailback corps that leaves plenty to be desired.

Thus, the onus comes back to Mayfield, the guy who looked like this in 2022:

via rbsdm.com and the author.

That’s a big risk! It’s also not an unreasonable one. The Detroit Lions revival has been built around a former first overall pick who spent time as a Los Angeles Ram. Detroit covered Jared Goff’s flaws with dynamic motion and a steady diet of play-action passing. The Bucs revived Mayfield despite not being able to make all that much of its fake runs in a season where its real runs threatened no one.

Instead, Mayfield’s rise came behind a modest diet of run-pass options — 59 snaps, per Pro Football Reference, the second-highest of his career — and the fact he had two Pro Bowl wideouts on which to lean. Mike Evans’ 111.6 passer rating when targeted was tops among the team’s full-time non-tailbacks and eighth-best among all players with at least 100 targets. Chris Godwin’s number was lower as a result of a shorter target distance and fewer touchdowns (two vs. 13) but he caught nearly 64 percent of his passes. Between the two, more than 45 percent of Mayfield’s throws in their direction ended in either first downs or touchdowns.

If Evans and Godwin remain this productive — a medium ask, considering Evans turns 31 in August and Godwin played a full season last year for the first time since 2018 — Mayfield can shine sorta-bright again. If not, the Bucs can distance themselves from him after 2025 with reasonable cap penalties involved. Whether or not Tampa can survive a mediocre Mayfield comes down to one thing.

The Buccaneers’ rebuilt defense has to level up on the fly

These are the key components who’ll be missing from the Buccaneers defense in 2024:

  • Devin White
  • Shaquil Barrett
  • Carlton Davis
  • Ryan Neal
  • Dee Delaney

Some of those names look more concerning than they are. White, for example, was reduced to a supporting role in last year’s postseason. Barrett had just 7.5 sacks the last two years combined.

Still, that’s significant turnover that will need to be addressed. Tampa fielded a borderline top 10 defense last season, ranking 11th in EPA allowed, seventh in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed per play. The biggest loss is Davis, who was traded to the Detroit Lions, in part, to secure the cap space needed to retain Mayfield, Evans and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Davis’s departure is a bet. He’s been a solid starting cornerback throughout his six-year NFL career. But his passer rating allowed last season jumped by more than 13 points and his yards per target allowed rose to a career-worst 8.8. The Bucs opted to try and sell high, moving him for a third round pick used on wideout Jalen McMillan that allowed the team to target Georgia safety Tykee Smith a few picks earlier.

Smith is one of several young defenders on which Tampa Bay will rely to fill gaps in 2024. Zyon McCollum and Christian Izien are each primed for potential starting roles in the secondary after useful 2023 campaigns in which they ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, in defensive snaps taken. YaYa Diaby takes over Barrett’s role as the team’s top pass rusher, ideally with help from recent first round picks Calijah Kancey and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Sir’Vocea Dennis may be called into action should Lavonte David, in his 13th season as a Buc, can’t go.

There’s potential for this unit to be great, particularly if McCollum and Izien can build off their 2023 progress and free Winfield up to be the all-encompassing play-ruiner he’s meant to be. There’s also a dire need for Diaby, Tryon-Shoyinka and Kancey to step up. Last year’s Tampa Bay team blitzed on more than 40 percent of its downs but generated pressure less than 20 percent of the time (furthering the “it was time for Shaq Barrett to go” narrative).

***

Even just maintaining the status quo would be a win for a team eager to tread that path. The Falcons are the biggest obstacle in the Buccaneers’ quest for an NFC South three-peat, but their playoff hopes hinge on Kirk Cousins’ recovery from a torn Achilles at 36 years old — the same age Matt Ryan was in his final year with Atlanta. They could be stout competition, or they could be merely OK despite the overhaul.

Otherwise, the division is split between a New Orleans Saints team stuck in perpetual salary cap hell and a Carolina Panthers team that improved this offseason mostly because it was difficult to be worse. The NFC South is very much open to all comers, but the smart money suggests a two-team race.

Will holdovers and the contributions of young defenders be enough to keep the Buccaneers in front? Can Mayfield replicate a magical 2023 after testing the limits of how bad a starting quarterback can be? Tampa Bay didn’t make any earth-shaking moves this offseason, instead opting to rely on developmental growth and the ageless play of some key veterans. It’s not a bold strategy, but it’s one that could pay off once more.

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders merely have to show proof of concept in 2024

Daniels has the capacity to be special. His rookie season might stink regardless.

This will not be a banner year for the Washington Commanders. In fairness, those are few and far between to begin with.

Washington’s 2024 will either be a modest step forward or a deeper dive into a crevasse where the only way out is through. Head coach Ron Rivera is gone. So too are six starters who logged at least 65 percent of the team’s snaps on their side of the ball. A rookie quarterback will step into the lineup in hopes of raising this team to something beyond mediocrity.

This is all a good thing for the Commanders.

It’s been more than a decade since this franchise has produced double-digit wins in a single season. It’s been 33 years since Washington won more than 10 games in a year. The team’s 2023 wasn’t a teardown, as that suggests there was a useful structure here. Instead, it was spreading around various pieces of rubble and selling off whatever copper piping remained.

So what will success look like for a franchise that hasn’t known it in any meaningful way since Cheers was on the air?

The Commanders aren’t quite built for Jayden Daniels to thrive, but his outlook is rosier than past Washington QBs

Washington has broken promising new quarterbacks in the past. Robert Griffin III went from rookie of the year to injured mess before he could even collect an NFL pension. Kirk Cousins was run out of town by ownership unwilling to give him a long term contract. Alex Smith was, at best, a temporary solution who regressed significantly after leaving Kansas City for the nation’s capital, then suffered the leg injury that effectively ended his NFL career.

There are several culprits to blame, but the fact remains the Commanders were a rotten franchise whose toxicity trickled from the top. Former owner Dan Snyder was so despised that a group of billionaires quietly forced him out of their club, necessitating a sale to Josh Harris after 23 years of fruitless ownership. When Jerry Jones is able to claim the high road on you, that’s saying something. Snyder’s tendency to make the worst possible decisions at every turn are well documented.

That lends hope to the idea Daniels, the second overall pick and fruit of last year’s four-win campaign, can be different. Harris’s reign hasn’t been much of anything, but no news is good news for a franchise that spent the last decade plagued by bad press. Washington’s priority has to be creating a stable environment in which the reigning Heisman Trophy winner can thrive.

Elements of this already exist. Terry McLaurin is averaging more than 1,000 receiving yards per season through five years in the league. His 9.9 yards per target in 2022 ranked fifth among all qualified wideouts in a year where his quarterbacks were Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz.

Jahan Dotson was a mess in 2023, but the former 2022 first round pick has shown flashes of big play ability to be more than just a low-budget fantasy football flier. Brian Robinson has been an average runner out of the backfield in his two seasons as a pro behind an iffy line, but he blossomed as a useful receiver last year who can be a valued safety net in the short-range passing game; his 8.6 yards per target ranked first among NFL tailbacks last year. Austin Ekeler is here as well, hoping he can prove he’s not about to fall off a production cliff at age 29 despite an underwhelming 2023.

After that, things aren’t great. Signing Tyler Biadasz was an upgrade for an offensive line replacing 40 percent of its starters and Cornelius Lucas has been better than expected at left tackle. The rest of the line is not inspiring.

The tight end position will feature two-man sets with a 33-year-old Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott, who was great at Kansas State but may project more as an H-back even before getting to the standard struggles of first-year tight ends. The WR3 battle may come down to Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and rookie third-round pick Luke McCaffrey.

This is all to say, Daniels will ride the struggle bus in his NFL debut. But there’s reason to believe he can spin some of this straw into gold.

The 2024 Commanders need to prove Jayden Daniels can be special

Concerning pre-draft interview with the New York Giants aside (hey, he was just punking a division rival… right?), Daniels has the traits of a franchise quarterback. Vitally, he can buy time in the pocket with his legs and throw on the run, which will come in handy given the challenges presented by his blocking.

Daniels was buoyed by a stellar receiving corps at LSU. His top targets in a Heisman-winning 2023 were Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., both top 20 draft picks. He had another NFL wideout on the roster in 2022 in Kayshon Boutte. This undoubtedly helped, but so did the deep ball touch to make throws like this:

Now he gets to toss rainbows to McLaurin, who has never played with a good quarterback and whose average target distance has declined each of the last two seasons. When he needs to check down, he’ll have his choice between 2023’s most efficient target out of the backfield and a guy who had 107 catches two seasons ago.

There’s not a lot to work with between those two high spots, but it’s a start. Daniels’ biggest challenge in 2024 will be reading defenses and making the correct decision to toggle between the two. The biggest indicator of his franchise quarterback status may not be a big deep ball completion or even a completion at all. It’ll come when he identifies a deep safety lurking on McLaurin and uncorks a dart to Dotson or Brown or Sinnott or whomever for a safe, modest gain.

***

Daniels will have to exceed expectations to move the Commanders’ needle in 2024. Last year’s depleted defense ranked 32nd in both points and yards allowed. Washington reloaded with a pair of second-round rookies who should pay dividends (Johnny Newton, Mike Sainristil) and free agents Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner. Even so, it would be a surprise for this team to play even average defense this fall.

That leaves shootouts to be won against a schedule that isn’t nearly as soft as you’d expect from the league’s second-worst team. 2024 will be painful for the Commanders. But Daniels can create the balm to heal those burns if he can display even a fraction of the playmaking that made him last spring’s second overall pick.

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Kyler Murray’s Cardinals will be better than you think in 2024. Or at least more fun

Unless you’re a Cardinals die-hard, in which case they may meet expectations.

The Arizona Cardinals had so much to do in 2024.

2023 was a disaster in almost every way that counts. The team went 4-13, but that wasn’t enough to lock down a top three pick that could be auctioned off to the highest bidder in a quarterback-heavy draft. Kyler Murray’s recovery from a torn ACL left Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune to start games at quarterback. Only one team in the NFL gave up more points.

On top of that, the deal they’d made with the Houston Texans in last year’s draft failed to pay expected dividends. The Texans’ rise to AFC South champions meant they got last year’s third overall pick (and 2023’s defensive rookie of the year) Will Anderson Jr. for the price of the 12th and 27th picks in the 2023 and 2024 drafts, respectively — a solid deal that wasn’t quite the windfall Arizona had hoped.

Fortunately, there were still plenty of assets at general manager Monti Ossenfort’s disposal to dig his team out of the NFC West’s basement. The Cardinals’ $56 million of cap space was a top seven mark in the league heading into the offseason. And while the fourth overall pick wouldn’t get them in position for a top three quarterback, they didn’t need one with Kyler Murray under contract thanks to a massive extension. Arizona was cleared to add the best players available when it came to boosting their roster, either on the open market or in the draft.

That’s pretty much what they did.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona’s offense should immediately improve even without adding established veteran talent

First, don’t let pre-draft smoke screens tell you differently. Even in a stacked class of wide receiver talent, Marvin Harrison Jr. was the clear top wideout.

Even better, he fit an immediate need for the Cardinals. Arizona’s most targeted wide receiver in 2023 was Marquise Brown, who is now a Kansas City Chief. Number two on the list was Rondale Moore, who was traded to the Atlanta Falcons.

Need met opportunity in a massive way to give the Cardinals, and Murray, a viable WR1. The rookie will not only lift the offense but save a ton of cap space going forward. In a league where $35 million just became the annual going rate for an elite receiver, Harrison Jr. will cost just under $35.4 million… for the next four years.

That’s vital for a team with a quarterback whose salary cap hits the next five seasons vacillate between $43 and $53 million. But Murray won’t just be relying on a first-year stud to lift his offense.

Arziona’s overall target leader last year was Trey McBride, who was served a platter of unappetizing quarterbacks most of 2023 and turned it into a feast:

His average target distance was six yards downfield but his average catch sprang for more than 10 yards per reception owing to sneaky impressive run after catch skills. Pro Football Reference credited him with 10 broken tackles last season after recording zero as a rookie in 2022.

The other arrow in Murray’s quiver will be Michael Wilson, whose 9.7 yards per target ranked second among all rookies to only Green Bay Packer Dontayvion Wicks. Consistency was right about where you’d expect from the 13th wideout selected last spring, but he seemed to find a connection with his veteran QB late in the year. After zero catches on seven targets his first two games with Murray in the lineup, Wilson had 12 targets, 10 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown in the final two.

That’s an extremely fun young lineup of targets, albeit a thin one. There’s also help coming to the backfield. James Conner was quietly great last season, running for more than 1,000 yards in only 13 games. His 1.02 rush yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt were fourth best in the NFL last season, per Next Gen Stats.

Conner is also 29 years old, has more than 1,100 NFL carries under his belt and offered little in the receiving game, though 13 of his 27 catches came after Murray’s return in the last four weeks of the year. Fortunately, the Cardinals have more help en route. Trey Benson was arguably the top rookie running back in this year’s draft class and was the second one off the board when Arizona took him in the third round.

Benson’s size and aggressive running gives Murray a thunder/thunder combination to tenderize defenses and set up his passing game before taking his own scrambling ability into consideration. Benson also has 4.3-second 40 speed, shifty lateral quickness and the ability to contribute as a receiver. He’s another link in this exciting chain of young playmakers.

Then there’s the guy in the middle of it all, hoping to turn potential into production.

Joe Rondone-Arizona Republic

Kyler Murray was quietly decent to finish a lost 2023

2023 didn’t offer Murray much but the chance to build confidence in his surgically repaired knee. His first five games back failed to paint him as a quarterback worthy of a $230 million contract. Though Arizona went 2-3 in that span, he threw only four touchdowns against four interceptions. He added three more scores on the ground, but his 31 rushing yards per game were still below his career average of 39.

In terms of overall efficiency, he was somewhere between Desmond Ridder and Bailey Zappe:

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Things changed over the final three weeks of the season. The schedule got easier, for one, but Murray still had to face a Chicago Bears defense that was playing like a top three unit to finish the year, a talented-but-spiraling Philadelphia Eagles and a Seattle Seahawks team still in the playoff hunt.

Murray threw six touchdowns against a single interception in that span. His passer rating rose from 78.4 to 108.3. His deep game was still a mess — he completed only three of 12 passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield — but he found a way to maximize a roster with a few nice young prospects and a whole bunch of replacement level players.

Here’s where he ranked among starting quarterbacks over those final three weeks of 2023.

via rbsdm.com and the author

That’s a small sample size and those aren’t world beater numbers, but they’re above average for a quarterback playing with one of the league’s least recognizable supporting casts. Now Murray gets to add an elite young wideout to the mix who can crush defenders at every level. He can pair Harrison Jr. with McBride’s reliable short-range game and Wilson’s budding deep/intermediate range savagery. He’s also got two new(ish) tackles in Jonah Williams and Paris Johnson to keep his edges intact and create the space he needs to rise to his contract.

There’s potential here! Modest potential, sure, but the 2024 Cardinals could be extremely fun to watch. Which is great, because that focus on young playmakers has left the defense in a tight spot. Signing Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols should help boost a deficient defensive front, but this remains a team for which no player who started double-digit games had more than 3.5 sacks.

There will be immediate pressure on rookies Darius Robinson and Max Melton to step into starting roles and perform. This is, without question, asking a lot even before we get to the competition in the AFC West, where every non-Cardinals team finished above .500 last winter.

That suggests 2024 may be a year of modest improvement in Arizona rather than a stunning turnaround. But given the relative weakness of the rest of the NFC, there’s a chance that some young contributors could push the Cardinals into a Wild Card spot ahead of schedule.

And if they don’t, they should be fun as hell to watch along the way.

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