Tag: 2024 nfl previews

Anthony Richardson is the headliner, but the Colts aren’t going anywhere unless their defense improves

Richardson could be special, but he’ll need the Colts’ young defensive prospects to rise up for a playoff run.

Anthony Richardson plays football like a cloned version of Josh Allen. If he can stay healthy after playing just four games as a rookie, he’ll make the Indianapolis Colts one of the most entertaining teams in the NFL.

But he may not be able to make them a playoff team no matter how good he is if his defense can’t match that rise.

Richardson, in an NFL career that has only lasted 173 snaps so far, is generating impressive hype. At +3500 his regular season MVP odds are nestled right behind Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford. Fantasy gurus love him; Rotowire pegs him as this year’s sixth-ranked quarterback. That’s not an indicator of team success or anything more than the fact he’s expected to be a lightning bolt on the ground and through the air, but it does capture some of the excitement around a player who completed 59 percent of his passes as a rookie.

If he can approach that hype, growing pains aside, he can put Indianapolis in position to challenge the Houston Texans atop the AFC South. But the only way the Colts can usurp CJ Stroud is with a defense that reaches a level beyond mediocrity.

Let’s start with the fun stuff.

USA Today Sports

Anthony Richardson plays quarterback like someone duct taped an anti-aircraft gun to a monster truck

The Allen comparisons aren’t superfluous. The Bills quarterback came into the league as a bazooka-armed specimen a few pounds shy of being an edge rusher. He struggled with his accuracy but never shied away from big gains through the air or big hits on the ground.

Richardson is, well, all that. At 6-foot-3 and 244 pounds he’s the kind of devastating open field runner defensive backs can’t bring down without ceding extra yardage. And his arm, well…

Laser show.

The Colts used their rookie quarterback often on designed runs, ostensibly designed to lessen the burden of a first year player reading complex defenses. Richardson threw 84 passes in his abbreviated debut but ran 25 times — a 22.9 percent run share that nearly matches Lamar Jackson’s split in his MVP 2023 campaign (148 runs, 457 passes and a 24 percent run share). This led to an efficient 5.4 yards per carry. It also created the conditions that led to Richardson leaving the field with trainers twice — the second time four games into the season and for good.

It will be interesting to see if head coach Shane Steichen allows him to run as often in year two. Richardson’s success rate on the ground — runs that pick up at least 40 percent of yards needed for a first down on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent of yards-to-go on third or fourth down — was 64 percent. Only one regular player in the NFL had a higher number in 2023… Josh Allen at 65.8 percent.

That’s pretty much a cheat code to keep this offense on schedule, but there’s more to Richardson’s arsenal than big runs. He had little issue airing it out as a rookie; 36 percent of his throws went at least 10 yards downfield, a rate higher than Allen’s 34 percent or, if we’re looking at another celebrated first year starter, Jordan Love’s 33 percent. While that contributed to his less-than-stellar completion rate, it also created a roughly league average 6.9 yards per attempt.

Nothing spurs a young quarterback’s growth like a great pass catching corps, and general manager Chris Ballard has put in work to make that happen. Michael Pittman’s value as a reliable possession receiver worked out to $70 million over three years, per his recently signed contract extension. Josh Downs, who clicked with Gardner Minshew in stretches as a rookie, is there to work the slot. Alec Pierce remains a viable deep option.

But the key may be the Colts’ 2024 second round selection. Adonai Mitchell wasn’t a model of consistency at Georgia and then Texas, but he showed up in big moments to elevate both teams. More importantly, he has all the tools to shed coverage at the next level; size (6-foot-2, 205 pounds), speed (4.34 second 40-yard dash time) and that preternatural sense that helps him level up in the biggest moments (touchdown receptions in every College Football Playoff game he ever played).

If Mitchell can expand his route tree and do a little bit of everything, it’s going to make everyone’s lives easier. That’s asking a lot, however. What would be an easier lift is if Jonathan Taylor can return to All-Pro status.

Taylor has yet to revisit the heights of his league-leading 2021 season or even his rookie 2020. Injuries have cost him 13 games the last two years and after averaging 5.3 yards per carry his first two seasons he’s down to 4.4 since. His success rate hasn’t broken 50 percent either of the last two years. He’s still good, but good wasn’t what he showed us when he entered the league.

If he can be the stable presence churning yards and setting up third-and-short, it would take the onus off Richardson’s legs, allow him to take fewer hits and create the space to turn his shotgun blasts downfield into sniper fire. But the Colts can survive any sophomore struggles if their defense rises to the occasion.

USA Today Sports

The Indianapolis defense is (mostly) running it back and hoping for the best

Ballard’s big moves this offseason mostly involved keeping the band together. This spring, he re-signed:

  • LB Zaire Franklin
  • CB Kenny Moore
  • S Julian Blackmon
  • DL DeForest Buckner
  • CB Darrell Baker Jr.
  • DT Grover Stewart
  • EDGE Tyquan Lewis

and more. The team’s free agency page on Over the Cap is a sea of blue sticking with blue, with few exceptions.

via overthecap.com

There are good players here, no doubt, but it leaves the heavy lifting of improving a middling-to-bad defense on the development of young prospects. The Colts ranked 28th in points given up last season, though that doesn’t tell the full story. They were 20th in defensive DVOA and 19th in expected points added (EPA) allowed.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

One of the 2023 Colts’ hallmarks was generating chaos without blitzing. Indianapolis’ 15.7 percent blitz rate was the lowest in the league. Even so, the team’s 51 sacks were a top five mark. This defense didn’t generate a ton of pressure (19.6 percent, 22nd in the NFL) but made sure it finished the job when given the chance.

Laiatu Latu, the first defensive player taken in this year’s draft, fits that mold perfectly. He was one of college football’s most productive pass rushers after 23.5 sacks and 34 tackles for loss in 25 games as UCLA. But he’s also the only rookie the Colts selected before the fifth round. Raekwon Davis, the team’s highest-profile new arrival in free agency, projects as a rotational interior lineman who is much more of a big-bodied lane clogger than pass rusher (17 credited pressures in four NFL seasons).

If that front can’t make the most of its pressure like last season, it’s going to turn up the heat on a young secondary. Re-signing Moore was a no brainer, and he’ll provide steady veteran coverage over the slot. Along the sidelines, Steichen will be trusting recent draftees JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, each of whom showed flashes as rookies but ultimately recorded passer ratings in the 99s when targeted last fall. While the Blackmon/Nick Cross combination is a viable pass/run deterrent, this remains a group liable to struggle through growing pains.

***

Ultimately, how the Colts react to those growing pains will define their 2024. Richardson has to prove he’s more than just fantasy fodder. The team’s secondary has to prove it can handle increased reps if its pass rush can’t finish the job. Mature quickly and make the playoffs. Develop at a more reasonable rate and that dream defers for another season.

That’s fine, and the excitement will follow whenever Richardson is in the lineup regardless. Indianapolis bet hard on its internal development this offseason, hoping last year’s nine-win campaign with Gardner Minshew behind center could be the foundation for something more. That’s a logical move — and one that puts a lot of trust in Shane Steichen’s staff in his second year on the job.

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Caleb Williams may be the quarterback the Bears cannot break

As good as Caleb Williams may be, his defense should be even better.

The Chicago Bears have been caught up in quarterback hype trains before. You don’t have to delve very far back in team history to see. Justin Fields was supposed to be a savior. Mitch Trubisky had all the tools to be the best quarterback in his draft class. Jay Cutler, well, you don’t trade two first round draft picks for a guy who’s just gonna become a parody of himself, right?

This has, predictably, led to disappointment for a franchise constantly searching for jet packs capable of catching up to the NFL’s aerial revolution. But Caleb Williams, this spring’s top overall draft pick and a gift from the woefully mismanaged Carolina Panthers, looks different.

It is, of course, foolish to read too heavily into preseason results. Williams has a vast wealth of talent but there’s no guarantee it will translate at a consistent level on Sundays. But, still…

Welp, let’s talk about how Williams could be the quarterback not even the Chicago Bears can break.

The Bears are uniquely well suited for a rookie quarterback to take the reins

This wasn’t coincidence. This was the best case scenario for a team that made smart moves to make the best out of what it had.

It began in 2023 when they sold the top overall pick in that year’s draft to the Carolina Panthers for two first round picks, two second round picks and established wideout DJ Moore. General manager Ryan Poles didn’t need a quarterback with Justin Fields entering his third year in the league and still ripe with potential. What he needed was assets to fill out the roster around Fields — especially at wideout, where guys like Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown and Chase Claypool ranked among his top targets in 2022.

Fields failed to pan out, but the trade flourished. Moore continued to thrive despite underwhelming quarterback play. Darnell Wright, acquired with the 2023 first gleaned from Carolina, was an instant starter at right tackle with massive upside. Having extra draft fodder allowed a trade for Montez Sweat and the rookie contracts involved helped carve out room to extend Moore, cornerback Jaylon Johnson (we’ll get to this) and swing a trade for Keenan Allen.

Then came the real treat; the first overall pick in a draft loaded with talent. In came 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Williams.

Most first overall picks go to borderline hopeless situations in year one. Not Williams. He gets to throw to what may be the league’s best wideout trio in Moore, Allen and top 10 draft pick Rome Odunze — a man who made 50-50 deep throws a 75-25 proposition at Washington. His tight end is Cole Kmet, whose 1.63 yards per route run (YPRR) was a top eight mark. Poles even splurged to bring D’Andre Swift to the backfield despite already having a solid young RB1 in Khalil Herbert and a viable prospect behind him in Roschon Johnson.

This has all come together to build a tremendous launch pad for Williams, who also inherits a head coach that failed to make the most of Fields and now gets to prove he knows what *not* to do. Matt Eberflus tried to minimize Fields’ running tendencies in 2023, instead leaving him in the pocket while absorbing some truly horrendous sacks (135 in 40 games as a Bear).

But Eberflus recognized the flaws there, giving his young quarterback more freedom as his rushes per game rose from 7.8 to start the season to 11 over the final seven games — a 4-3 stretch that likely saved the coach’s job. In that stretch, Fields was less efficient as a passer (his rating dropped from 95.4 pre-midseason injury to 82.2) but had a bigger positive impact on the game (his expected points added rose from -0.054 to -0.009… not great, but still better!).

Does this mean we should trust the Bears coaching staff? I’m not quite convinced, but it’s a step in the right direction. But even if Eberflus and company struggle to get the offense on track early Chicago should still be in good shape.

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears defense was very, very good to finish 2023 and should remain that way

From Week 10 onward — the game after Chicago acquired Montez Sweat, thus allowing him a chance to gain his sea legs — the Bears gave up more than 20 points only once. They held opponents under 310 total yards in the majority of these games. They forced 19 turnovers; that’s a ridiculous 2.4 per game.

That last number may not be sustainable, but Chicago’s overall very good-ness should be.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

The primary forces behind that rise return for 2024. Sweat had six sacks and 14 quarterback hits in his final eight games of 2023. Johnson held opposing quarterbacks to a ridiculous 50.9 passer rating when targeted — second-lowest of any cornerback to see at least 50 targets last fall, per Pro Football Reference. Tyrique Stevenson improved steadily as a rookie opposite Johnson and had nine passes defensed and three interceptions in his final five games of the year.

Kyler Gordon had some growing pains in his second season but emerged as an upper crust defender in the slot. T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds helped fill the void in the middle of the field left by Roquan Smith. Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens, both 2023 Day 2 draft picks, should only get better as potential anchors along the team’s defensive line.

The 2024 draft, on top of delivering Williams and Odunze, also dropped a punter worthy of being a fourth round pick (Iowa breakout star Tory Taylor, which is somehow not hyperbole, go Hawks) and a sleeper pass rush prospect (Austin Booker) into the fold. All this should reduce the amount of heavy lifting a rookie quarterback has to perform.

***

It is, again, stupidly early to cast judgment on Caleb Williams’ NFL career. All we know at the dawn of the 2024 season is he’s looked special this preseason. This isn’t unfamiliar to Bears fans, but the supporting cast around him is.

Williams has been dropped into a lineup where both sides of the ball can thrive, even with average quarterback play. That doesn’t mean it will — there’s a certain degree of anxiety that comes with Eberflus’s prominent spot on the sideline — but there’s no doubt this Chicago team is put in a better position to exceed expectations than any over the last decade.

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How excited should the Packers be about the Jordan Love era?

Pretty excited. Pretty, pretty, pret-tay excited.

Jordan Love’s first season as the unquestioned starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers began as a roller coaster. He immediately rose to tall heights, throwing three touchdown passes in each of his first two games, then leading a comeback victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 3 to start the post-Aaron Rodgers era off with a bang.

Then, the accuracy issues that were acceptable in wins became concerning in a four-game losing streak that helped drop Green Bay to 3-6 and in position for a top 10 draft pick rather than a playoff run. After that, another climb. The accuracy issues and turnovers abated. The Packers rallied to the playoffs and beat the brakes off the Dallas Cowboys in Texas before bowing out to the eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers a week later.

This has all set the bar high in Wisconsin, where the Packers have the fourth-best odds to win the conference crown behind the Niners, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. So how confident should Green Bay be in a player who looks like the next link in a proud chain of franchise quarterbacks?

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, Jordan Love was *that* good to finish 2023

Let’s chart Love’s debut season as QB1. And since I’m basic, let’s just use passer rating to do so.

That’s a big start, an immediate cratering and then, whooooooo, a rocketship. From Week 11 through the Wild Card round, Love played nine games and had a rating of 108 or better in all but one (a loss to Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants. It was… weird). In those nine games he threw 21 touchdown passes against a single interception and was only sacked 11 times.

What changed? Love got better at finding his targets certainly — it helped that head coach Matt LaFleur did a great job creating openings — but more importantly he got significantly better at placing these throws. Love completed just 53 percent of his passes in games one through three, improved to 61 percent despite his struggles in the next six, then completed 70 percent of his passes over the final half of the 2023 season.

After Week 10, the only quarterback dealing at such an efficient level was Brock Purdy:

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Purdy had an established lineup of All-Pros in his quiver, ready to cut through the air en route to bullseyes. Love did this with the league’s youngest receiving corps. Eight wideouts or tight ends caught passes from Love last season. Only two, Christian Watson and Bo Melton, were older than 23 when the season started.

That receiving corps stepped up, certainly, but Love was also out there making throws like this:

The one concern is that Love’s passes tend to float, making him a glorious “no, no, no, YES” follow on game day. While he has the arm strength to sling the ball into tight windows, some of his finest plays are gently lofted balls that fall into a bucket.

This is terrifying, but endemic to the Love experience. He will make throws that look wildly interceptable as cameras pan downfield. Then they will land where he intended, moving the chains in a big way.

This doesn’t mean he’s infallible. He’s still filtering out the gunslinging instincts. Here’s a play, in the biggest game of his career, that had almost zero chance of succeeding and wound up sealing the Packers’ 2023 campaign:

Concerning, maybe, but this was a young quarterback in his second playoff start fighting with his back to the wall. For now, it can be treated as a lapse rather than a trend — even if it did look at least a little similar to Brett Favre ruining the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff run in 2010.

Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Love should, theoretically, have an easier lift in 2024 in front of a revamped defense

The Packers have been less than the sum of their parts when it comes to stopping opponents in recent years. Green Bay ranked 10th last season in points allowed but 13th in DVOA and 26th in defensive efficiency in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed. For a team that’s spent seven first round picks on defensive players since 2019, this was not acceptable.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Thus, out went former defensive coordinator Joe Barry and in came Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, making a statement on college football’s upward mobility and pay scale all in one move. Hafley’s defensive resume with the Eagles wasn’t great — just one season where BC’s points allowed cracked even the top 50 — but the Packers like the fit between his press-heavy coverage and its athletic cache of cornerbacks.

Indeed, Jaire Alexander can be trusted on an island and Eric Stokes has the recovery speed to thrive there if he can stay healthy after playing only a dozen games the last two seasons. Even if he can’t, Carrington Valentine succeeded in an expanded role and is capable of holding his own and Xavier McKinney’s arrival at safety brings an experienced, above-average help defender at the last line.

This will allow Hafley to lock in his other goal; to pin his guys’ ears back and attack the quarterback. Green Bay blitzed on 29.3 percent of its defensive snaps last season, which was a top 10 mark. It only generated pressure 24.3 percent of the time. Given Hafley’s past, it stands to reason we’ll see single-high coverage that trusts his defensive backs and gives young guys like Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness a little extra help when it comes to introducing chaos to the pocket.

The question is how that will translate to the run defense. The Packers’ fatal flaw late in the Rodgers era was its inability to generate stops on the ground. The last time Green Bay even ranked in the top 20 when it came to yards allowed per carry was back in 2018. 2022 first round picks Quay Walker and, to a lesser extent, Devonte Wyatt have helped there, but questions linger. The team’s 2024 draft haul, which saw off-ball linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Ty’Ron Hopper selected on Day 2, suggests the team is still working on solutions.

***

For the Packers to build from 2023, two things need to happen. Love needs to prove his vision and accuracy can stand up against defensive coordinators who’ve finally got a full season’s worth of game film to scrutinize. Hafley needs to prove his defensive scheme can turn a shaky unit held together by a few studs into something genuinely fearsome.

If Love and his defense play at the same level where they finished last season, they’ll… still be fine. It would be disappointing not to see more growth from a young roster, but a Wild Card bid in year two of the Love era would be a victory for all but the most spoiled of fan bases. The problem for the rest of the NFC is there’s still a ton of room to grow here.

We don’t yet know what the Green Bay Packers are truly capable of. But we’re about to find out.

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The Cowboys can still win the NFC East even if their offseason stunk

Then, in the playoffs, Mike McCarthy can further his legend of being entirely overwhelmed in the biggest moments.

Jerry Jones, owner and de facto general manager of the Dallas Cowboys, told reporters two days before the 2024 NFL Draft he felt good about his offseason acquisitions. He spoke as if 2024 was a launching pad; the genesis of a new era for the Cowboys.

“We feel great about what we’ve been in free agency,” Jones told the media. “All-in. All-in. All-in. We’re all-in with these young guys. We’re all-in with this draft.”

This was a curious statement. Jones hadn’t committed all-in money to starting quarterback Dak Prescott. He hadn’t extended All-Pros CeeDee Lamb or Micah Parsons. His biggest free agent signing, at that moment, was 32-year-old linebacker Eric Kendricks.

This was a grim reality for a team whose salary cap management meant shedding veteran talent designed to win a Super Bowl rather than add it. But even without headlining additions or locked-in contracts for his biggest stars, Dallas has a strong chance to be the NFC East’s first repeat champion since 2004.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, playing angry football, can keep the Cowboys offense great

Aside from maybe Lamar Jackson, there’s no quarterback fans like to argue about more than Prescott. The former fourth round pick has been a one-man economy for ESPN’s daytime shows and talk radio alike. The indelible stain on his resume is a 2-5 playoff resume that serves as the end-game for anyone convinced he can’t be an elite quarterback.

The other side of the coin is, for the most part, Prescott’s been very, very good. Since 2016, 36 quarterbacks have taken at least 2,000 NFL snaps. Prescott’s 0.166 adjusted expected points added (EPA) ranks seventh among them behind only Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and, uh, Jimmy Garoppolo (look, the metric isn’t perfect).

Slide that scale down to 100 postseason snaps, and Prescott’s number drops to 0.155 — 13th out of 23 qualified quarterbacks and, (long inhale) right below Blake Bortles.

via rbsdm.com

That’s still ahead of Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Drew Brees, which really showcases why Prescott, with his 73-41 regular season record and 99.0 career passer rating, is such a lightning bolt. It also illustrates why Jones may be hesitant to give him a market value contract even as it gets more expensive each year. It also puts a lot of pressure on Prescott as free agency looms — right when Dallas’s roster management has left him to deal with significant turnover.

The Cowboys lost four different players who took at least 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps last season; left tackle Tyron Smith, center Tyler Biadasz, wideout Michael Gallup and running back Tony Pollard. That means two new starters on the offensive line — a pair of blue chip rookies in Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe — and a cadre of skill players that will rely heavily on relative NFL geriatrics in Brandin Cooks and Ezekiel Elliott.

This may not matter, because Prescott has CeeDee Lamb.

Prescott made Lamb his ultra huckleberry last year and turned that into the first All-Pro honor of his career and a second place finish in MVP voting. Lamb was a monster; 135 catches, 1,749 receiving yards and 2.68 yards per route run (YPRR), fifth-best in the NFL. He stands to somehow improve on those numbers in an offense light on playmakers and in the midst of his own standoff with Jones. Lamb is playing out the final year of his rookie contract and staring down an extension that should pay him Justin Jefferson type money at $35 million annually over four years.

That All-Pro to All-Pro connection alone will keep last season’s No. 1 scoring offense above average at the very least (and it helps Guyton and Beebe both look capable as inexpensive blockers). The continued emergence of Jake Ferguson will help as well. The YPRR metric wasn’t as kind to him, ranking him 15th among last season’s 56 qualified tight ends. However, his 71 catches and 761 yards were each top 10 numbers and likely to rise alongside his target share this fall.

The real question is whether an Elliott-Rico Dowdle tailback rotation can provide meaningful ground support. Elliott remains a pro who can be trusted as a receiver and pass blocker, but his -0.39 rush yards over expected (RYOE) were seventh-worst in the NFL last season. Dowdle is more efficient — his 0.15 yards created per carry last year were slightly better than Pollard (0.14) but he only has 96 regular season carries in three years as a pro.

This suggests 2024 will be another season where Prescott has to sling it. And while a single injury could derail a top heavy, thin lineup, it could also be the year Prescott establishes himself as an undeniably elite quarterback. Of course, if he lands somewhere in between his team should still be alright because…

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys’ defense is a chaos engine

There are few defenses in the league capable of swinging the outcome of a game on a single play like Dallas. Micah Parsons has 40.5 sacks in three seasons as a pro and in 2023 averaged a negative play — either a sack or a tackle for loss — on roughly five percent of his snaps, per Sumer Sports. DaRon Bland had seven interceptions and five pick-sixes en route to first-team All-Pro honors in 2023. Trevon Diggs had 11 interceptions and a pair of pick-sixes en route to first-team All-Pro honors in 2021.

By those powers combined, the Cowboys can thoroughly devastate opponents in a span of seconds.

Dallas fielded a top five defense even with Diggs missing all but two games due to injury. Bland and Parsons were the headliners and Demarcus Lawrence earned a Pro Bowl nod despite underwhelming counting stats (his four sacks failed to gauge his impact on the line). But other players stepped up to ensure this defense rolled.

Osa Odighizuwa continued to be an overlooked piece of the machine, finishing second on the roster in quarterback hits (13) and had as many pressures as Lawrence while maintaining a solid base against the run. Malik Hooker provided above average help as both a pass deterrent and tackler from his perch at safety.

Kendricks is an inexpensive gamble on a one-year deal to punch up the off-ball linebacker corps. His coverage is a problem — he’s allowed a passer rating over 100 each of the last three seasons — but he’s a perceptive veteran who knows where the ball will be and how to stop it. Demarvion Overshown’s return from the torn ACL that cost him his rookie season could be an even bigger addition. He brings 4.5-second 40 speed to a 6-foot-3, 220 pound frame that should give Dallas an extra weapon to deploy against tight ends or crushing gaps against the run.

It’s probably a little silly to get too hyperactive about a 32-year-old and a third round draft pick coming off a significant injury and without any regular season snaps to his name, but it’s easy to see how Overshown fits in the puzzle. If he and Kendricks can provide stability to the middle of the field, it creates more room for Parsons, Diggs and Bland to make those risk/reward bets that pay off with huge negative plays. So while the departures of veterans like Stephon Gilmore, Jayron Kearse and Dorance Armstrong Jr. sting, there’s still reason to believe this will be a top five unit once again.

***

Despite the accounting that’s forced some veterans out and left others to twist in the wind during extension talks, the Cowboys are well set for 2024. It doesn’t hurt that half the NFC East looks like a mess (Washington Commanders, New York Giants) and Dallas’s top competition spiraled out with a 1-6 record in its final seven games of 2023 (Philadelphia Eagles).

Still, in a season where it became clear this team needed an extra gear to speed past the playoff failures that have become a tragic tradition, the Cowboys were stuck hoping low-budget additions and in-house development could save them. That’s not a terrible plan — it’s basically how Bill Belichick kept the Patriots’ dynasty rolling — but it’s not entirely inspiring, particularly with some huge pending free agents on the roster.

There is, of course, time to fix things. Jones could make this whole premise obsolete before this preview even goes live. But recent history suggests the mercurial owner will do things his way, tying his $10 billion franchise in more knots while searching for the glory of the 1990s. And that could be all it takes to keep a good Cowboys team from greatness.

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The Chiefs are a fast-moving glacier and the rest of the NFL is being ground to dust

The Chiefs’ young secondary has to step up, but Patrick Mahomes could make that a moot point.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the new New England Patriots.

Absurd franchise quarterback? Check. Respected veteran head coach? Yep. Defense that shows up to crush your dreams when it matters most? Correct. General feeling of inevitability? Yeah, that too.

Like Tom Brady before him, Patrick Mahomes has become a constant in AFC title games. The Chiefs have made it to the league’s final four each of the last six years. They’ve made it to the Super Bowl four of the last five and won it thrice. And like those prime Brady Pats, their window doesn’t seem to be closing anytime soon.

Mahomes, even in a down year, still ended his season with a parade through western Missouri. Travis Kelce continued to be an abject terror despite countless double teams and weekly podcast duties. And, in a new fun twist for the rest of the league, the Kansas City defense emerged as one of the league’s most imposing units.

Things don’t look like they’ll get any easier for the rest of the AFC in 2024.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City has, in theory, fixed its biggest offensive weakness

The Chiefs made the difficult decision to trade Tyreek Hill before he signed a four year, $120 million contract with the Miami Dolphins in 2022. This robbed Mahomes of his most dynamic deep threat, and over the last two seasons Kansas City’s downfield passing has suffered. Mahomes’ average target distance dropped to a career worst 6.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage last season (third lowest among starting quarterbacks). His 56 deep throws and 17 deep completions were also career lows.

It was easy to understand what necessitated the change. Hill’s departure put the receiving corps in the hands of players like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Rashee Rice. Mahomes still managed to win an MVP with those first four guys in the lineup. Then Rice emerged as his WR1 as a rookie — but almost exclusively as a short range target.

Rice’s average catch came only 3.8 yards downfield, but he still turned that into big production in his NFL debut. His 2.39 yards per route run (YPRR) were 10th best in the league, showcasing not only his ability to get open but Mahomes’ ability to find him and deliver the ball into these windows.

But even with Rice thriving in the short range and Kelce a beast in the intermediate range and free agent Marquise Brown capable of filling up a route tree, there left one final piece of the puzzle. Valdes-Scantling was supposed to provide some semblance of a deep game, but in 2023 he bottomed out to career lows of 21 catches and 15 yards per reception. Enter Xavier Worthy.

For reference, the Chiefs have finally replaced Hill’s 4.29-second 40-yard dash speed with Worthy’s 4.21-second 40 speed. Obviously there’s no guarantee that will translate to the NFL, but it did result in more than 900 receiving yards per season in three years at Texas. Kansas City needed a player who can coax more deep throws out of Mahomes and create space for the team’s other pass catchers to thrive. Worthy is capable of this.

Even if he struggles — and Rice misses time thanks to league discipline related to an offseason reckless driving arrest — we know the Chiefs offense will be fine because (gestures broadly at the last two years). Isiah Pacheco, a tailback who runs like a possessed child in a horror movie, posted a top 10 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) while proving he could handle an expanded workload. He gets to run behind one of the league’s top interior blocking schemes behind Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. That’s a big deal; the Chiefs are 14-1 when he averages more than five yards per carry in a game.

Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts after a play during Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium on February 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The Chiefs defense is approaching greatness, but questions linger

Kansas City finished 2024 ranked second in both points and yards allowed. Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie (acquired after a trade up involving the draft pick gleaned in the Hill trade) were both first-team All-Pros. George Karlaftis broke out for 10.5 sacks. The Chiefs won four games last season in which they failed to score at least 20 points; that had only happened four times the previous nine years.

Still, while that unit was very good it wasn’t quite elite. Against the pass, Kansas City was a top three operation. Against the run, it failed to crack the top 25:

via rbsdm.com and the author.

We saw this in the team’s losses last fall. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders each won rock fights in which their own passing games failed to generate more than 100 yards of offense. It didn’t matter because their run games did enough to overcome a sputtering Kansas City scoring attack. Denver rode multiple four-plus minute drives in the final 19 minutes of its second game against the Chiefs despite three net passing yards in that stretch, turning a 14-9 lead into a 24-9 win. Half a season later, Zamir White had the best game of his career, rushing for 145 yards in an otherwise unwatchable Christmas Day game.

Head coach Andy Reid is hoping this is a problem that fixes itself with in-house development. Contributors like Willie Gay and Mike Edwards left in free agency while the Chiefs mostly stood pat when it came to adding veteran defensive help. Only two of the team’s seven 2024 draftees came on the defensive side of the ball and each (defensive backs Jaden Wicks and Kamal Hadden) were Day 3 selections.

Instead, the onus will fall on Nick Bolton, third-year linebacker Leo Chenal and 2023 free agent addition Drue Tranquill. Bolton’s return from injury will be an obvious boost; his 3.2 percent missed tackle rate was the lowest of any Chiefs regular last season (he’s yet to post a rate higher than four percent in his NFL career). Chenal made strides in his second season and should be even better this fall. Tranquill is capable of dizzying highs and moderate lows but mostly is a reliable veteran who gets where he needs to be.

The easiest way, of course, to reduce this liability will be to force opponents into playing from behind and limit the amount of designed runs that unit sees. Forcing more dropbacks means jamming opponents into the gears of Kansas City’s machine, where Jones, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton and Justin Reid await.

But it’s fair to worry about a secondary that lost its most disruptive member (L’Jarius Sneed, traded to the Tennessee Titans) and will instead rely on recent draftees like Bryan Cook, Nazeeh Johnson, Chamarri Conner, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson and Nic Jones. The hope is Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can put a few of those guys on the Sneed development track, but there’s a good chance the defensive backfield sees its share of growing pains this fall.

***

Those defensive concerns are almost a moot point if the offense matches expectations. Worthy doesn’t need to be Tyreek Hill to succeed in Kansas City; he just needs to be better respected by opposing defenses than Valdes-Scantling was. Rice doesn’t need to drastically improve in his second season; he just has to be the same run-after-catch savant he was to finish 2023.

If that comes into focus, the defense can regress from last year’s top-two scoring unit. Questions will follow its secondary into 2024, but they can be erased if Mahomes continues to trash opponents’ secondaries this fall. And everything we’ve seen the last six years suggests, yep, that’s probably what will happen.

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The Jaguars’ struggle against their own undertow will define Jacksonville’s 2024

Jacksonville needs a handful of bounce-back seasons to make it back to the playoffs.

2023 did not go as planned for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The reigning AFC South champions were a team on the rise. They’d made it to the playoffs for the first time since Blake Bortles was a The Good Place punchline. They made a historic rally from a 27-0 deficit to ruin the Los Angeles Chargers’ Super Bowl hopes. They gave the Kansas City Chiefs a legitimate scare in an eventual 27-20 Divisional Round loss.

Things were supposed to be better the following fall. Trevor Lawrence, the former prized top overall draft pick, recorded a 15:2 touchdown:interception ratio over the final nine games of the season as Jacksonville rallied from 2-6 to 9-8. His ascension was supposed to get rocket boosters with the return of Calvin Ridley from a league mandated year-long gambling suspension. Factor in the rising play of 2022 first round draft picks Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd, and the Jaguars were a legitimate title contender.

That was not what happened. Lawrence struggled with injury and regressed. The defense that had punched above its weight class in 2022 wound up rocked by haymakers. Jacksonville went from 6-2 headed into its bye week to 9-8 and a spot outside the playoffs.

Let’s talk about what went wrong, and if there’s a quick fix for 2024.

Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Trevor Lawrence… let’s talk about it, guy

The landing spot for any Jaguars criticism lands at the feet of the guy who just signed a $275 million contract extension with $200 million in guarantees. Lawrence looked the part of a man worth more than $50 million annually to finish 2022.

From Week 9 onward, he ended the regular season with a 105.4 passer rating on the strength of 15 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. Jacksonville went 7-2 to upend the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South title and Lawrence further elevated his legend by virtue of his Wild Card comeback. He was, over the back half of 2022, a top five quarterback.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

He elevated Christian Kirk to a place worthy of his contract status. Kirk’s yards per route run (YPRR) rose from 2.0 (30th among NFL wideouts) to 2.14 (22nd) in his first season in Jacksonville. Evan Engram went from the NFL’s least deserving Pro Bowler to a bonafide one (albeit in 2023) after trading in the New York Giants’ cabinet of curiosities quarterback room for one with Lawrence in the middle. Zay Jones best season as a pro? That came alongside Lawrence in 2022.

And then 2023 hit. Calvin Ridley entered as the WR1 capable of restoring order to the lineup. And Lawrence, fighting through injury for a chunk of the season, played appreciably worse for a team that still won nine games, but ceded the AFC South to the Houston Texans. His sack rate went up, he was prone to scrambling out of bad situations rather than standing in the pocket through static and while his average target distance rose so did his interceptions — from eight in 2022 to 14 last fall. He wasn’t bad; he was merely slightly above average.

via rbsdm.com and the author

That didn’t stop the Jaguars from handing him a massive contract extension — a necessity, given the team’s history at the position and Lawrence’s still untapped potential. But it’s reasonable to be wary of the young quarterback’s leveling up even if he’s full strength in 2024. Ridley was arguably misused in 2023, making some veiled references to his route tree after signing with the Tennessee Titans this spring. In his place steps Brian Thomas Jr., who is big (6-foot-3), fast as hell (4.33-second 40 time) and a deep ball savant capable of tracking and adjusting to throws in a way that leads to big gains.

Ideally, he’d shunt Kirk down to WR2 status and new arrival Gabe Davis could be an occasionally devastative presence as the third man up. But there’s no guarantee that happens, especially as a rookie, and this group could be a cadre of Williams H. Macy without a leading actor.

Evan Engram is coming off a career best year but was used heavily as a short range safety valve rather than a seam-splitting downfield threat; his average catch came four yards downfield. Travis Etienne is talented, but he backslid as a runner and receiver last season — his -77 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were eighth-worst in the league. Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson each averaged 2.6 yards per carry last season which is, according to most football analysts, very bad.

If any of these guys step up — if Thomas can be an impact wideout from day one, if Etienne and company can restore the rushing offense to a high efficiency unit, if Engram can keep producing at a Pro Bowl level (actual Pro Bowl, not his nonsense 2020 invite) then Lawrence can rebound to stake his claim as a franchise quarterback. If they can’t, 2024’s success will depend on a growing defense.

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union

The Jaguars’ defense probably won’t approach 2016-2018 levels, but it can certainly be better

From 2016 to 2018, here’s how the Jags ranked in yards allowed: sixth, second, fifth. In the five seasons since, they’ve failed to finish higher than 20th.

There have been missteps along the way. Jacksonville drafted CJ Henderson and K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft; that pair combined to start 21 total games for the Jaguars.

The 2021 Jags passed on an opportunity to draft cornerback Greg Newsome II in the first round and opted to take Tyson Campbell in the second. Newsome was a key piece of one of the league’s top defenses and Campbell, after a promising 2022, struggled with injury in 2023 and allowed a 128.5 passer rating in coverage. 2022’s top overall pick Travon Walker has developed into a double-digit sack threat, but it’s fair to wonder if the team would have been better off with Aidan Hutchinson, who went second overall, instead.

This hasn’t prevented Jacksonville from cultivating a core of useful players. Walker and Josh Hines-Allen combined for 27.5 sacks last season — no teammate combination in the league had more. Campbell allowed a 78.0 passer rating in his second season in the league and could be even better now that his hamstring is back to full strength. Foyesade Oluokun is a tackling machine and Devin Lloyd is blossoming into a versatile off-ball presence next to him. The Andre Cisco-Antonio Johnson pairing at safety provides a ton of potential.

That said, this unit still has work left to be done. Secondary depth is an issue, particularly after salary concerns chased 2023’s top coverage man Darious Williams back to the Los Angeles Rams. Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage bring veteran experience to the backfield, but Darby is on the wrong side of 30 (which was, in theory, part of Williams’ problem) and Savage has been a bit of a mess in coverage. Third round pick Jarrian Jones would make life easier for Doug Pederson if he can immediately contribute.

Signing Arik Armstead and drafting Maason Smith is supposed to shore up the interior of a defensive line that was subpar against the run. That’s not a bad approach, obviously, but it highlights how quickly the Jaguars will have to mesh with their new additions.

***

Even with the Houston Texans surging, the Jaguars have the tools to remain in the AFC South title picture. That hinges on several bounce-back performances — from Lawrence, Campbell, Etienne and more. It also depends on some possible stars stepping into their potential to raise the quality on both sides of the ball.

That’s a lot that has to go right and a franchise for which, historically, almost everything tends to go wrong. It’s easier to doubt Jacksonville than to have faith in it, but the talent of a playoff team remains. The question now is whether Pederson can bring it together quickly enough to make an impact in 2024.

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The Jets can have their best season in a decade even if Aaron Rodgers kinda stinks

Rodgers’ scrambling ability was waning even before a torn Achilles and his 40th birthday.

The New York Jets paid a hefty sum for a four-time MVP to lead them to greatness. But for 2024 to be a success, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to be phenomenal; he just has to be average.

The Jets are built to weather a storm of bad quarterbacking because this is all they’ve known the past 15 seasons. Rodgers was supposed to be 2023’s savior, but his season ended after four plays due to a torn Achilles. Now he’s back at age 40 — he turns 41 in December — trying to do Tom Brady stuff despite having a very different playing style than the gold standard for quadragenarian quarterbacks.

Rodgers has constantly made special plays look routine, so there’s no guarantee he’ll backslide. But even if he plays up to his 2022 stat line he’ll fall short of the MVP standard that made him a future Hall of Famer. Fortunately for him — and for head coach Robert Saleh — there are contingency plans in place. New York can be a Super Bowl contender even if Rodgers looks like just another guy out there.

Which may very well be the case.

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets are counting on a 40-year-old coming off a major injury and he’s still a significant upgrade at quarterback

Hoooo buddy, if that doesn’t explain the Zach Wilson era, nothing does.

From a logical standpoint, Rodgers is a risky bet. He’s a quarterback with excellent processing skills, certainly, but his game excels on the back of special physical gifts. A cannon arm that can deliver pinpoint strikes to the sideline even without his feet set. The scrambling awareness and quickness to extend plays and devastate a disheveled secondary.

The arm looks intact as his 41st birthday nears, but it’s fair to wonder about his legs. Rodgers had his least effective season as a runner in 2022, running for the fewest yards in his NFL career as a starter. He recorded a career low 13 scrambles in 17 games, showcasing his age and seeing a dent in his passing efficiency as well.

2022 was Rodgers’ worst season as a full-timer, though some of those struggles can be tied to a receiving corps that was Davante Adams, some useful receiving help from the backfield and little else.

via rbsdm.com and the author

Now he heads into 2024 older and with Garrett Wilson, some useful receiving help from the backfield and… well, something more than “little else” with Mike Williams in tow, but it’s still at least slightly concerning.

Wilson appears to be genuinely special, capable of breaking free for 1,000-plus receiving yards despite catching passes from the lesser Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. His 1.48 yards per route run (YPRR) last year (down from 1.85 as a rookie) dampen that enthusiasm a bit — that ranked 52nd among NFL wideouts, right behind Indianapolis Colts rookie Josh Downs — but is easy to forgive when you see how heinous his quarterbacks were.

Behind him, things get dicey. Williams will turn 30 years old in October and has played only 16 games the last two seasons. Xavier Gipson’s 0.64 YPRR ranked 113th among 120 qualified receivers last season, right behind overpaid Rodgers huckleberry Allen Lazard. Malachi Corley is a third round rookie and the tight end rotation of Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert is solid if slightly underwhelming from a receiving standpoint.

That could put pressure on a running game that… well, it could be awesome. We know Breece Hall is capable of magic, an explosive runner who can turn ounces of daylight into pounds of production. His 146 rush yards over expected (RYOE) were fifth best in the NFL last season and he proved his value as a receiver with 76 passes for a vertically challenged offense. Revamping the offensive line with Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses and Olu Fashanu should make everyone, from Rodgers to Hall, better.

Adding Wisconsin beef-back Braelon Allen and South Dakota State breakaway artist Isaiah Davis on Day 3 of the draft provided low cost, high upside additions who can help ease Hall’s burdens. If Rodgers can’t elevate a seemingly thin receiving corps, he’ll have plenty of support elsewhere. And he’ll be able to survive occasional poor performances because…

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets defense once again looks like a fire blanket

New York’s defense was overtaxed last season but still one of the league’s best units. A Wilson offense meant only one team in the league held the ball less on offense (2:23 per drive, according to Pro Football Reference). Still, the Jets ranked third in the league in yards allowed, first in yards allowed per play and third in EPA allowed per snap.

A massive component of this was a defense that was able to create chaos in the pocket without sending extra players to the line of scrimmage. New York’s 98 blitzes were the lowest in the NFL — nearly 30 fewer than the third place Las Vegas Raiders. The team’s 48 sacks were seventh-best in the league and its 26.5 percent pressure rate ranked fourth.

There’s a sliver of concern there; Bryce Huff is a Philadelphia Eagle. Hasson Reddick, traded to fill the slot he left behind, is holding out for a larger contract and currently at a stalemate with his new team. But there are still two former first round picks flanking Quinnen Williams as edge rushers between Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV. McDonald underwhelmed as a rookie, so Saleh would prefer to have a veteran hand like Reddick available, but this isn’t a lost cause if he fails to report.

That’s because the defense behind that front is stout as hell. Quincy Williams and CJ Mosley are one of the best off-ball linebacker combinations in the league. Cornerback Sauce Gardner has yet to see an NFL season in which he isn’t a first-team All-Pro (he’s two-for-two). DJ Reed is a plus defender alongside him. Michael Carter II has emerged as one of the league’s best slot corners.

If there’s a weakness here it’s at safety, where Jordan Whitehead has departed and been replaced by Chuck Clark. Clark is a perfectly cromulent veteran and fellow starter Tony Adams was fine in his first season (his tackling was uneven, his coverage was mostly solid) at the top of the depth chart last fall and has the capacity to build from there. Over the top help is less of a concern with this team’s group of corners, but if there’s one place to attack it could be deep downfield — especially given the AFC’s laundry list of heavy hitter quarterbacks.

***

New York got to seven wins last season even though its primary quarterback was the worst starter in the NFL. That means even a diminished Aaron Rodgers — a ball-protecting, pocket-laden version of the legend he built in Wisconsin — would pave the way to double digit wins.

That’s what we may be in store for in 2024; a 40-year-old coming off a major leg injury whose impact as a scrambler was waning even before all that. But the Jets have an offensive line that should be able to keep him comfortable in the pocket and a handful of high potential players who can keep Rodgers slinging this fall and give him the resources he needs to convince him to run it back in 2025.

But if that doesn’t pan out, the core of an elite defense remains. A mediocre quarterback could keep this team afloat. The bar for Aaron Rodgers, against the standard of Aaron Rodgers seasons, is high. But the bar for Rodgers against Jets quarterbacks is nearly subterranean, and that’s all he has to clear in 2024.

The Saints are trudging through NFL limbo with no end in sight

In which A.T. Perry could be the difference between a playoff spot or a mediocre draft pick.

Through the end of the Drew Brees era, New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis had a certain philosophy when it came to his salary cap. His unofficial motto? “That’s a next year problem.”

New Orleans has been stuck in a loop of big contracts for veteran players and cap gymnastics to keep the Saints in compliance of the league’s spending limit. This has created a cycle of contract restructurings and void years that push big contract money into the future — a place where they’ll take up less room against an expanding salary cap.

There’s no better example than Taysom Hill’s four-year, $140 million contract. That made headlines for its ludicrosity, but at its heart it saved $7.5 million on the team’s 2020 salary cap while keeping a key player under contract by spreading his signing bonus into those future years. The deal itself was later configured into a four year, $40 million deal — either a lot for a hybrid tight end/quarterback/special teamer or a little.

This stuffed cap sheet meant New Orleans could sustain itself as long as it had a franchise quarterback and drafted well. So when Brees was still slinging darts and the Saints found guys like Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk in the first round, life was good. But recent years have delivered Andy Dalton and Trevor Penning. New Orleans has found itself trapped in a cycle of mediocrity of its own making.

2024 doesn’t look like the year the Saints break free.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Carr has to prove he’s better than an injury-marred Saints debut to push this team to the playoffs

Carr was supposed to be the fix; an underappreciated quarterback who toiled with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders but could thrive in a new setting. We never got to see that in 2023, because he got the tar beaten out of him.

He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers and was effectively week-to-week for the rest of the season. He also dealt with a concussion and bruised ribs but still started all 17 games and played efficient, if forgettable, football for a 9-8 team. His completion rate soared to 68.4 and his 97.7 passer rating was the third-highest of his career. With a potential playoff spot on the line, he torched the Atlanta Falcons for four touchdowns in a 48-17 win that ultimately didn’t matter thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ NFC South-clinching victory on the same day.

That’s the blueprint head coach Dennis Allen would like to follow in 2024. Carr’s deep game worked wonders; he completed all four of his throws of 20-plus yards and was 6-8 for 146 of his 261 yards and three touchdowns on his throws that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That stands in contrast to the rest of his Saints tenure, where his average throw depth of 6.8 yards was his lowest mark since 2019.

Carr’s injuries likely played a role in that safer game plan, but he’s still got juice when it comes to field-stretching lobs. The question is whether he has the horses to pull such throws off.

Rashid Shaheed has been a quasi-revelation as a deep ball savant. Chris Olave is capable of winning any route he throws out. But the key could be second-year player A.T. Perry. Carr wanted him to be a downfield menace; his average target came more than 16 yards downfield. As a rookie, however, that only manifested in 12 catches (for 246 yards, but still).

A Perry rise could be key to the Saints’ playoff hopes. He averaged better than 18 yards per catch in his 2022 breakthrough season at Wake Forest. He’s had an up and down preseason thanks to an ankle injury, but could be the guy Carr needs to unlock the intermediate and deep game that roasted the Falcons last January.

And the Saints might need that, because the run game could be grim. New Orleans’ 1.4 yards after contact per rush was second-worst in the NFL ahead of only the woeful Buccaneers. Alvin Kamara’s -99 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were fourth-worst among all tailbacks and now he’s 29 years old with nearly 2,000 NFL touches on his odometer.

Kendre Miller showed flashes of competence as a rookie but has gotten called out by his own head coach due to his struggles with injury. Carr could be stuck staring into crowded secondaries thanks to a ground game that convinces no one to stack the box.

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints’ defense is aging toward a breaking point

New Orleans fielded a top 10 scoring defense. They ranked fifth in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed last fall. That unit should be the support network capable of creating wins even if Carr plays useful, but low impact football.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

This doesn’t mean the Saints will play at this level again in 2024. Here are the ages of some of their most important starters:

  • Nathan Shepherd: 30 years old (turns 31 in October)
  • Tyrann Mathieu: 32
  • Cameron Jordan: 35
  • Demario Davis: 35

That’s concerning, but not necessarily fatal. Davis has only gotten better in his 30s, though cracks may be forming in his coverage abilities. Mathieu played at a borderline All-Pro level last season. Shepherd had the best season of his career in 2023.

But Jordan had his least productive season since a rookie 2011 and an age-related decline is coming at some point. The good news is the young guys in the secondary have been good enough to compensate for that. Marshon Lattimore remains awesome (74.7 passer rating allowed in 2023) even if injuries have limited him to 17 games the last two seasons. Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo have emerged as reliable starters with Pro Bowl capabilities. Kool-Aid McKinstry was a potential first round talent the team was able to pick up in Round 2 of this year’s draft.

That’s important, because the pass rush was unable to consistently threaten quarterbacks last fall. The Saints’ 18.7 percent pressure rate was fifth-worst in the NFL and their 34 sacks were tied for fourth-worst. Jordan’s age won’t help there, and the team’s cap situation meant the big offseason acquisition for the edge rush was Chase Young, who played a full season last year but only managed 7.5 sacks (and only two in nine games as a San Francisco 49er).

***

Unless 2024’s draft class is a hit, things won’t get better for the Saints in the near future. They’re already an estimated $90 million over next year’s salary cap, though releasing Kamara would erase a sizable chunk of that burden, per Over the Cap. And, indeed, if first round tackle Taliese Fuaga and McKinstry both emerge as solid starters it will generate the savings needed for Loomis to dig his team out of its ongoing cap debt.

New Orleans has gotten mixed returns from its latest high profile picks, however, and another Penning or Payton Turner-type miss could keep this team stuck in a cycle of expensive veteran help rather than the cheap, young players who can build a more traditional foundation. This year’s Saints team looks a lot like the last few; good enough to compete for a playoff spot and keep the team from a top 10 draft pick. Bad enough that no one quite buys them as a true contender.

That’s the limbo New Orleans’ roster management has created. It’ll take a seismic shift, one way or another, to free the Saints.

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67 years of Detroit Lions futility have been building to 2024’s actual, incredible hype

The Lions have Super Bowl hopes and it’s not hard to understand why.

2024 isn’t a Super-Bowl-or-bust moment for the Detroit Lions. But the last six decades of Lions football certainly make it feel that way.

Futility has been the core of Detroit football since the team’s last NFL title, secured before the Super Bowl era in 1957. From 1958 to 2022, the Lions won a single playoff game, losing others by scores like 0-5, 7-31, 10-41 and 37-58. Jim Caldwell’s reward for being the franchise’s fourth coach of the modern era to make multiple postseason appearances was to be replaced by Matt Patricia despite a 36-28 regular season record.

Something changed after Patricia’s deserved firing. Dan Campbell showed up like the kids’ cartoon version of an overzealous football lifer. He talked about biting kneecaps and bringing real life lions to practice on a leash. He was an unserious, yet too serious person guiding an unserious, yet too serious team. By those powers combined, he was the perfect man for the job.

His players bought in. His wizard of an offensive coordinator made the Los Angeles Rams’ castoff quarterback, a fourth round wideout, a Chicago Bears refugee running back and a pair of rookies one of the league’s deadliest offenses. The Lions didn’t just rally to a division title; they claimed their first NFC North championship ever. Detroit didn’t just win a playoff game; it triple its postseason wins total in the modern era and was a little extra secondary depth away from a Super Bowl appearance.

That brings us to 2024. The heroes of the 2023 season have returned. The secondary has been shored up with veteran and rookie help alike. An offensive line that operates like a tsunami returns intact. The preseason hype has never been louder in Detroit. So what can the Lions do for an encore?

Detroit Free Press

Ben Johnson’s offense is primed to ruin defenses no matter who they focus on

Here are Jared Goff’s adjusted expected points added (EPA) per dropback over the last five seasons, per RBSDM.com:

  • 2019: 0.106 (16th among NFL starters)
  • 2020: 0.093 (22nd)
  • 2021: -0.031 (27th)
  • 2022: 0.194 (sixth)
  • 2023: 0.152 (eighth)

What changed in 2022? That’s when Ben Johnson rose from tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. Johnson has been nothing short of a revelation, both in his ability to transform the Detroit offense and in his loyalty to the team despite his status as a rising star each winter when head coaching searches commence. Rather than decamp for a higher profile job, he’s opted to stick it out in Michigan and see if he can be a force for good with a franchise that’s been carried downstream in a river of bad for the last six decades.

Johnson is a wizard, happy to throw whatever seems like it may work into his cauldron. His Lions offense isn’t locked into one set philosophy; there’s no strict adherence to run-pass options or zone runs or play action passing. If he sees an opportunity, he takes it — even if that means folding his right tackle into the passing attack.

This was necessary in 2022 when Detroit had to build around a depleted offense. It’s less necessary in 2024, where the Lions are kinda stacked.

Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to level up as Goff’s huckleberry, earning first-team All-Pro honors last winter. His 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR) were seventh-best in the NFL, joining a cache of elite wideouts. Sam LaPorta was a second-team All-Pro as a rookie after a 10 touchdown season at tight end, a position that typically has a steep learning curve come Sundays.

The backfield behind them is one of the most dynamic in the league. David Montgomery left Chicago to play behind the Lions’ ridiculous offensive line and immediately averaged a half yard per carry more than he did in his final season as a Bear. He finished 2023 with 1,015 yards and 10 touchdowns in 14 games. The chops he lacks as a pass catcher are provided by Jahmyr Gibbs, who had 52 receptions as a rookie while nearly cracking the 1,000-rushing yard barrier on his own.

Johnson revived Detroit’s offense making the best of a decent, but not great roster. Now he’s loaded with the aforementioned skill players plus whatever former first round pick Jameson Williams can bring as a deep threat (his 1.44 YPRR ranked 56th — not great, but not terrible either). Goff proved in 2023 he’s capable of cycling through an audible-heavy offense — per Ben Solak, formerly at The Ringer and currently at ESPN (because he’s awesome), the Lions had offensive packages in which Goff had up to five different plays he could call at the line of scrimmage each snap depending on the defense. Now he’ll get to see which poison opposing defenders have picked, then swap out his play call to find another lethal dose of Williams, or Gibbs, or Kalif Raymond or, hell, Tom Kennedy.

That offense may not have to work as hard as it did in 2023 because…

The Lions addressed their biggest weakness in spades

Detroit saw a 24-7 halftime lead evaporate at last January’s NFC Conference Championship. If there’s one indelible play that sums that up, it’s this:

There was a lot to be frustrated by in that loss, but underneath the fourth down misses and a brutal Gibbs fumble was the fact Detroit lacked horses in its secondary. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s season ended after three games. Cam Sutton was a mess, allowing a passer rating of 112.4 in coverage after signing with the team as a free agent fix (and promptly being released this offseason following a domestic violence arrest). Jerry Jacobs’ coverage slipped and the Lions’ 0.08 expected points added (EPA) allowed on opposing dropbacks was the 25th-best mark in the NFL.

via rbsdm.com and the author

For the second straight season, Detroit has taken steps to fix this problem. The team’s 2024 solution seems a bit more airtight than then one that failed last fall.

Cornerback Carlton Davis arrived via trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Davis has never been a Pro Bowler in his six years in the league or even played more than 14 games in a season, but he’s a steady corner who can hold his own in coverage and be trusted to understand his assignment. Amik Robertson, who improved across each of his four seasons as a Oakland/Las Vegas Raider, signed with the team on the first day of free agency. Emmanuel Moseley, the oft-injured corner who is solid when available but whose 2023 in Detroit lasted two snaps, re-signed on an inexpensive deal as well.

Those are all useful pieces, but the headliner arrived in April’s draft. The Lions sent the Dallas Cowboys the 29th pick as well as a third rounder in order to select Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold 24th overall. Arnold was neck and neck with Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell to be the first defensive back selected. Now he pairs with Brian Branch, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph and Aidan Hutchinson as the young, rising core of this defense.

And brother (or sister), that core. Hutchinson’s 62 pressures last season were 12 more than anyone else in the NFL. Branch showed up as a dynamic nickel back who can erase slot threats and knocked down or intercepted 16 passes in 15 games (and he’s eying a move back to safety, at least in stretches, in 2024). Campbell’s rookie campaign was more of a mixed bag, but he proved a versatile off-ball linebacker whose coverage will improve with experience. Joseph allowed just a 70.5 passer rating when targeted last fall.

***

This is the combination of storm systems that threaten to turn the Detroit Lions into the category five hurricane for which their fans have waited generations (and we didn’t even get into Alim McNeill, who is also very good!). Concerns linger about receiving depth and a quarterback who has fallen off in the recent past, but neither feels like a fatal flaw.

The Lions are favored to repeat as NFC North champions. They have the fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl 59. This is a swell of momentum that goes far beyond talking yourself into Scott Mitchell or hoping Kevin Jones can be a workhorse. This is, without caveat, a good team that’s capable of being even more than the impressive sum of their parts.

The next step is taking all that and using it to break a six decade cycle of depression.

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The Vikings and Sam Darnold are built for a difficult 2024, and that’s fine

Give Minnesota a year to get its cap right and get JJ McCarthy back, then things will fall into place.

JJ McCarthy will not start a game in his rookie season. He won’t even make a single appearance.

The reigning College Football Playoff champion and 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft is out for the year after a torn meniscus suffered in the first preseason game of his career. McCarthy looked solid in that exhibition, throwing for 188 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders’ assortment of backups and practice squad fodder.

Instead, the highs and lows of his debut season will wait until 2025. In his place steps Sam Darnold, on his fourth team in the last five seasons and with a 10-20 record as a starter in this stretch.

On the other side of the ball is a defense that united over a “[expletive] it” philosophy when it came to extra help in the secondary and opted to blitz the hell out of everyone until they were exhausted. That unit too will be dealing with attrition, as 2023’s top two pass rushers — Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum, who had 24.5 sacks between them — each departed in free agency.

Thus, 2024 is set to be a trying year for head coach Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota Vikings. And that’s OK.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings post-Kirk Cousins reset meant 2024 was always going to be a gap year

Minnesota found its ceiling with Cousins behind center. With a perfectly fine, occasionally great veteran quarterback at the helm, the Vikings could make it to the playoffs and even win games there. But so could Daniel Jones’ New York Giants (who escorted Cousins from the playoffs after the 2022 season), so who cares?

This left general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah with a hard truth to face. His team was expensive and stuck in contention limbo. Do that long enough and you turn into the late stage New Orleans Saints. The Vikings were good enough to fight for a playoff spot without truly threatening Super Bowl hopefuls. That, plus a stuffed salary cap, left little room for meaningful improvement, particularly at quarterback.

Rather than read too much into 2022’s 13-win season — a season in which the Vikings had a stunning -18 point differential) or trudge back into the void after an injury marred, seven-win 2023, Adofo-Mensah hit reset. 2024 was the year Cousins and Hunter slid off the roster, leaving more than $43 million in dead salary cap commitments this fall, per Over the Cap. Justin Jefferson would get the record-setting contract extension he deserved, and the space needed to pay for that while being able to afford impact free agents in 2025 and beyond would come from a rookie contract quarterback.

That led Minnesota to McCarthy, who may lack top end quarterback tools (average size, arm strength) but provides winning intangibles in spades. Instead of seeing what he could do against NFL defenses, the Vikings will have to instead wait. In his place comes Darnold, who is sorta the anti-McCarthy since he’s bigger, stronger, still provides a plus arm and, notably, hasn’t won much.

Since showing the 2020 New York Jets he wouldn’t be the team’s oft-sought franchise quarterback, the former third overall pick has been, to put it kindly, going through it. 2020 and 2021 were the nadir of his career so far, a stretch in which he started 23 games and won six. He failed to complete more than 60 percent of his passes in each year and finished the stretch with an 18:24 touchdown:interception ratio.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

This led to a quarterback competition with fellow Carolina Panther Baker Mayfield in 2022, which Darnold lost. Mayfield went on to be the league’s worst starting quarterback that fall, but Darnold was only able to take the reins in Week 12 thanks to an ankle injury that sidelined him early. From there, things took a surprising turn. The discarded QB slashed his interception rate and was sorta… good?

via rbsdm.com and the author.

That’s a small sample size, but it was the best football of Darnold’s career. His interception rate dropped and his scrambling efficiency rose to a career-high 9.0 yards per escape, per Pro Football Reference. That led him to the San Francisco 49ers to back up Brock Purdy, a stint that allowed him one Week 18 start alongside the rest of the team’s backups and little useful data regarding whether or not his 2022 is replicable.

That’s the proposition on which the Vikings staked a one-year, $10 million bet. Darnold was always going to be a bridge to a rookie quarterback, but he was also supposed to be the guy who could carry the team early in the season while said rookie got his feet underneath him. Turns out, that’ll cover the entire 2024 season.

There are benefits and drawbacks to this. Darnold gets the most talented wideout he’s ever worked with (on a season-long basis) via Justin Jefferson and a talented WR2 in Jordan Addison. TJ Hockenson will be back from the ACL and MCL tears he suffered last December as well, though he may need some ramp-up time before he’s a devastating tight end weapon again. He’ll also have the foundation of one of the league’s best pass protecting offensive lines ahead of him:

The run game he’ll lean on was below average last fall and will rely on a 29-year-old Aaron Jones and third-year back Ty Chandler. Jones finished his final season as a Green Bay Packer with 100-plus rushing yards in each of his last five games, but was also limited by injury and has nearly 1,300 NFL carries under his belt. Chandler averaged 4.5 yards per carry, but his 1.8 yards after contact weren’t great and the league’s Next Gen Stats tabs him at -0.14 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per carry for 2023. It’s no sure thing this group can rise up to carry Darnold should his passing struggle.

And Darnold may be tasked with winning shootouts, because…

The Vikings defense is in the midst of an overhaul

The pass rush trusted to sew chaos and make everyone else’s lives easier (by virtue of a 51.5 percent blitz rate) will look very different under coordinator Brian Flores this fall. Losing Hunter and Wonnum hurt, but replacements are in line who could replicate 2023’s pressure without having to send as many attackers to the pocket.

This began with veteran signees Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel. Neither are name brand stars, but each is effective. Greenard will have to prove his 12.5-sack breakthrough in 2023 is sustainable. Van Ginkel may not wow you with counting stats, but he’s had at least 19 quarterback hits in two of the last three seasons.

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

More importantly, Van Ginkel can start or come off the bench. This is vital thanks to the arrival of first round draft pick Dallas Turner — the team’s only defensive draftee before round seven. Turner is a twitchy athlete who should be able to provide speed along the edge, even if there’s room for him to flesh out his pass rushing attack.

Any pocket-shrinking help those three can provide will be a boon to a thin secondary. Byron Murphy was the best full-time starter among the team’s cornerbacks and still gave up a 97.8 passer rating in coverage. 2022 fourth round pick Akayleb Evans gave up a 120.4 rating when targeted and may lose his job to new arrival Shaquill Griffin. Griffin was released by the Houston Texans last season and, in 2021-2022 allowed a passer rating of 109.9 in coverage.

Harrison Smith is back, but the longtime Vikings safety is 35 years old. Camryn Bynum held down the starting spot next to him and failed to thrive. Granted, these struggles can at least partially be attributed to the lack of help defenders in a blitz-heavy defense, but there’s a reason Minnesota’s passing defense failed to crack the top 20 in passing efficiency or EPA allowed last fall.

There’s plenty of fixes that need to take place among that group, but Minnesota lacked the cap space or the draft capital to do so. That sets the stage for 2025, where the Vikings will likely have a top 10 pick (that can be used on a corner or auctioned to the highest bidder) and, per Over the Cap, an estimated $54.5 million to spend in free agency.

***

That means 2024 was going to be a challenge even before McCarthy’s injury — a table-setting season with painful losses and valuable lessons to be learned. Even if you talk yourself into Darnold (look at that 2022!), the defense remains a massive knot for Flores to untangle.

A base has been laid for the Vikings future, and that’s the important part. Win or lose, Minnesota will enter 2025 with a solid foundation, some genuine stars and the cap space to improve at key positions will create the space for a leap up the NFC North standings. And if that comes with a premium first round pick — the kind that can be traded for more picks, since Adofo-Mensah has already shipped off the team’s selections in rounds two through four — that’s even better.

So Vikings fans can relax on a current of low expectations this fall. Maybe Sam Darnold realizes his potential. Maybe this team crashes and burns. either way, 2025 is the year things matter again.

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