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The LA Dodgers visit the New York Yankees as the World Series moves to Gotham for Game 3. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Dodgers lead 2-0; LA took 2 of 3 games from the Yankees in the regular season
Los Angeles got the better starting pitching in Games 1 and 2 at Dodger Stadium. Since falling behind the San Diego Padres 2 games to 1 in the NLDS, the Dodgers have now filed 8 wins against just 2 losses. 1B Freddie Freeman backed up his big Game 1 grand slam with another HR in Game 2. He’s part of an LA attack that has banged out 20 HRs in the last 10 games.
DH Shohei Ohtani’s left shoulder may be sore, but the Dodgers star is expected to play Game 3. Manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani was cleared to play after being examined Sunday in Southern California, a day after he suffered a partial dislocation of his left shoulder in an attempted steal of second base. If you’re curious, the BetMGM Sportsbook odds that he hits a HR in Game 3 are +350 (-500 that he doesn’t).
New York has to hope a change of scenery will reinvigorate its offense. The Yankees went just 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position over Games 1 and 2. CF Aaron Judge has been most emblematic of New York’s hitting woes. Over the club’s last 5 games, Judge is 3-for-22 with a walk and 13 strikeouts. BetMGM Sportsbook has him at +240 to homer Monday (-300 that he doesn’t).
Dodgers at Yankees projected starters
RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt
Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.55 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-0 win at New York Mets Oct. 16 (NLCS Game 3)
- Owns a 3.25 ERA across 88 2/3 career postseason innings
- Has never faced the Yankees
Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) also had a 16-start regular season. He authored a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-5 loss vs. Cleveland Guardians Oct. 17 (ALCS Game 3)
- Has never faced the Dodgers
Dodgers at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dodgers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Dodgers at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Dodgers 5
Moneyline
New York is 4-1 over its last 5 home games, and with what the Yankees showed after losses to the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS and Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS they are the lean for getting this game.
Albeit in a small sample size, but Buehler was torched on the road in the regular season (6.53 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 30 1/3 IP). Schmidt has some iffy outings going back into mid-September, but analytics would say he’s been a bit unfairly dinged across those recent starts. And the New York bullpen does get a reset after Sunday’s travel day.
The lean is on the Yanks cranking out good, patient at-bats and getting back in this Series. But the pricing here makes them a small lean. Consider a partial-unit play on NEW YORK (-145).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: No interest here.
Over/Under
The strongest play in this match-up is the OVER 8.5 (-115).
Both starters are taking to the mound on long rest. That’s been a particular issue for Schmidt, who has yielded a long-rest (6-plus days) OPS of .849 over his career.
Mix in the bullpens being a bit “seen” so far, and batters figure to get fewer surprises. The Dodgers filed a .924 OPS across 3 games at Citi Field in the NLCS, and they own a .926 OPS across their last 13 road games.
Dating back into September, the Yanks have filed solid run totals in returns to Yankee Stadium after being on the road. That includes scoring 6 runs against Kansas City Oct. 5 and 5 runs vs. Cleveland Oct. 14.
TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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