Penn State will face Oregon in the Big Ten championship game this week after taking advantage of a door opening up in Week 14. Ohio State’s stumble at home against Michigan allowed Penn State to clinch a spot in the conference championship game with a conference record of 8-1 and a tiebreaker advantage over Indiana despite having similar 11-1 overall records. The Nittany Lions opened as a slight underdog according to the initial betting odds, but ESPN’s matchup predictor is telling a more encouraging story ahead of the matchup between the Nittany Lions and Ducks.
According to the ESPN matchup predictor on Monday afternoon, Penn State has a slight edge in win probability with a 53.8% chance of winning the Big Ten title game. This calculation could change by the day, so we’ll keep an eye on it throughout the week. And, of course, this is just a computer calculation that is not necessarily indicative of what may actually happen. But for Penn State fans, it should be worth smiling about at the beginning of the week!
The stakes for the Big Ten championship game are massive. The winner, regardless of who it is, will lock in a first-round bye in this season’s expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, while the loser will have to play in the first round.
Oregon likely has the biggest margin for error as a loss would be the first for the Ducks this season, and that should be more than good enough for the team currently ranked no. 1 in the polls to secure a first-round home playoff game in its worst-case scenario.
Penn State may still be in a position to host a first-round game if it comes up short against Oregon, as long as the selection committee stays true to the concept that has been shared that it will not punish a team playing in the conference championship weekend too harshly. But a loss would give Penn State two losses, so nothing is guaranteed for Penn State.
With both Penn State and Oregon ranked in the top four of the selection committee’s rankings last week, and likely holding to top four or three rankings this week when the rankings are updated, it is possible the winner of this weekend’s Big Ten title game could be the no. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, which would allow the Big Ten champion to dictate which bowl game it wants to play in for the quarterfinal round of the playoff. Oregon would easily be the no. 1 team in the bracket with a win over Penn State, but Penn State may still have to get by Texas if the Longhorns win the SEC championship.
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