2023 NCAA Tournament picks predictions winning strategy

March Madness: Sixth-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson makes his final pick in the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool.

The NCAA Championship Game is set. It’s the 5th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs and 4th-seeded UConn Huskies taking center stage Monday night in Houston to play for all the marbles.

If you’re fortunate enough to still have one or both of them eligible for the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest and you haven’t been eliminated, which team do you pick?

Only 24 entries remain out 8,109 entrants, but only 3 can even make a pick since 21 of those remaining already picked the Aztecs or Huskies along the way.

I would have been eliminated in the 1st round with my pick of No. 2 seed Arizona, which was knocked out by 15th-seeded Princeton. My 2nd-round picks also would have sent me packing as I selected 13th-seeded Furman, which lost to San Diego State, and 9th-seeded Auburn, which lost to a No. 1 seed in Houston.

At least I bounced back with No. 6 seeded Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round, and with 5th-seeded Miami topping No. 2 seed Texas in the 4th round. Unfortunately, I would have lost in the 5th round on No. 9 seed FAU’s buzzer-beater loss to San Diego State.

SDSU is playing for its 1st national title in program history; UConn is playing for its 5th and will be making its 6th Final Four appearance.

If I were still alive in the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool, here’s my strategy.

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National Championship pick

UCONN HUSKIES (30-8)

Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (32-6)

When: Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston

UConn (-7.5) is a nice-sized favorite against San Diego State, per BetMGM Sportsbook. As mentioned, I picked against the Aztecs twice in this contest, using Furman in the 2nd-round in what I hoped would be a points grab (it wasn’t), and taking FAU in the 1-point semifinal loss.

The Huskies steamrolled the Miami Hurricanes in the other semifinal game, winning 72-59. It was actually a lot worse at one point as UConn led by 20 points early in the second half before Miami made it somewhat respectable.

Still, UConn has looked the part of national champion from the jump. There’s a reason the sportsbooks installed the Huskies as 7.5-point favorites.

If the Huskies win Monday, it’s thanks in large part to F Adama Sanogo. He posted 21 points (9-for-11 from the field) with 10 rebounds and 2 blocked shots in Saturday’s win over the Hurricanes. He also hit 2 of 3 behind the 3-point line. If there was anything for the critics to pick on, it’s the fact he was 1-for-4 from the free-throw line. I imagine coach Dan Hurley and Huskies fans will give Sanogo a pass.

The good news for the Huskies is that G Jordan Hawkins, who blamed calamari for food poisoning prior to Saturday’s game, was able to fight through and play against Miami. He hit just 3 of 8 from the field, but all 3 makes were from the perimeter. He ended up with 13 points, 3 boards and a blocked shot.

I expect UConn to win its 5th title Monday. The Huskies have a thing about playing and winning title games in Texas, where they’ve won 3 of their 4 championships.

They last won in 2014 under then-coach Kevin Ollie with the game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Jim Calhoun was the coach of the Huskies’ previous 3 titles. One was in 2011 in this same building, then known as Reliant Stadium. In 2004, UConn won in the Alamodome in San Antonio. Their other title came in 1999, won at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The point is: Roll with UConn Monday, and don’t look back.

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March Madness: Fifth-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool with a 5th-round pick.

Then there were 4.

If you’re still alive in the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest heading into this weekend’s Final Four, way to go! After the Elite 8 action, only 61 entries out of 8,109 remain alive.

We’re down to 4 teams — the 9th-seeded FAU Owls, two 5 seeds in the Miami Hurricanes and San Diego State Aztecs and the 4th-seeded UConn Huskies.

If you’re one of the remaining 61 entries, congrats on staying alive until Houston. With a decent number of points still available, it could be a wild finish for the $5,000 prize.

As an employee, I was ineligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. I would have been eliminated in the 1st round, anyway, when No. 2 seed Arizona was upset by 15th-seeded Princeton. My 2nd-round picks wouldn’t have been any better with Furman losing to San Diego State, and Auburn falling to Houston.

At least I bounced back with Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round, and with Miami topping Texas in the 4th round.

Meanwhile, the national championship remains wide open.

FAU, Miami and San Diego State are playing in their 1st-ever Final Four, while UConn has 4 national titles and will be making its 6th Final Four appearance.

So, this is certainly unchartered territory for 75% of the remaining field.

Here’s my strategy of how to advance into the title game of this Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

Since the Sweet 16, remaining entries were/are required to pick just 1 team to win in each of the final 4 rounds — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.

We were required to picked 3 winning teams in the 1st round and 2 winners in the 2nd round

Now, you’ll pick 1 team in the Final Four and then the National Championship Game winner — if you still have eligible teams left to choose from.

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The other significant rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.

There are still a few available points in the Final Four:

9 points – FAU Owls
5 points each – Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs
4 points – UConn Huskies

Then again, you might have already burned one or more of these 4 semifinalists and your options are limited.

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Final Four pick

FAU OWLS (35-3)

Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (31-6)

When: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

If you haven’t picked the Owls yet, then it’s high time to use them up now. If FAU is able to advance, those 9 points would be huge at this stage of the contest.

FAU (+2.5) isn’t nearly as big of an underdog as Miami (+5.5), which is in the 2nd semifinal vs. UConn, per BetMGM Sportsbook. Plus, I already used Miami in the last round in its upset win vs. Texas.

The Owls started their basketball program in 1988. Heck, Florida Atlantic University was only founded in 1961, too.

FAU had been to the NCAA Tournament only once before, back in 2002 when it lost as a 15-seed in the 1st round to 2nd-seeded Alabama. So, FAU’s 1st NCAA Tournament win was just over 2 weeks ago (March 17) with a 66-65 squeaker over 8th-seeded Memphis. The Owls went on to win 3 more times to earn this trip to the Final Four.

FAU topped Memphis, with a controversial call at the end, and then it was fortunate enough to draw a 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson for a chance at the Sweet 16. It topped FDU by 8 (78-70), but it still looked like there would be a huge, uphill battle, to even think about Houston.

In the Sweet 16, the Owls played their best basketball of the tournament at Madison Square Garden, beating 4th-seeded Tennessee 62-55. The Owls recovered from a low-scoring, 22-point first half by posting 40 2nd-half points in the 7-point victory. They shot a respectable 42% (21-for-50) from the field against a strong Vols defense, and hit 29.6% (8-for-27) from behind the 3-point line.

If FAU is to knock off San Diego State, it will need to perform like it did against Tennessee.

The Aztecs have a similar lockdown defense, which is just about as good as anybody in the country. It’s San Diego State’s offense that concerns. In the regular season, only G Matt Bradley (13.0 PPG) averaged double-digit points.

If FAU runs, and is able to dictate the tempo, will San Diego State be able to hang offensively? I don’t believe so.

The one thing that is very much in San Diego State’s favor, making FAU a risky pick, is that the Aztecs ranked 15th in defensive 3-pointer percentage (29.8%) during the regular season, according to Covers.com.

The Owls go 9-deep in their rotation, and coach Dusty May likes to get guys like G Jalen Gaffney (32.3%) and G Brandon Weatherspoon (33.3%) off the bench for their 3-point ability. G Johnell Davis hits 36.6% from behind the arc, and 1st-round hero G Nick Boyd sinks 39.3% of his 3-point attempts.

The Owls have the depth to solve the Aztecs defense and continue an unlikely run to the title game.

Good luck and make sure to check back before Monday’s National Championship Game for the final pick.

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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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March Madness: Fourth-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool with a 4th-round pick.

March Madness continues to surprise. If you’re still alive in the USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest heading into this weekend’s Elite 8, congrats! After Friday’s action, only 210 entries out of 8,109 remain alive.

All four No. 1 seeds are gone. Some of you might have advanced by picking the 9th-seeded FAU Owls. Nicely done! But you’re only half way there. You still have 3 more rounds (picks) to go.

As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. Had I been, I would have been eliminated in the 1st round when No. 2 seed Arizona was knocked out by 15th-seeded Princeton. I also would have been shown the door in the 2nd round with losing picks of Furman (vs. San Diego State) and Auburn (vs. Houston). At least I bounced back with Creighton defeating Princeton in the 3rd round.

For the 1st time in the history of the NCAA Tournament, there are no No. 1 seeds in the Elite 8. So, it’s wide open for the national championship as fans coast to coast, from South Florida to San Diego and Spokane, have dreams of “One Shining Moment..

Here’s my strategy of how to advance into the Final Four and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to pick just 1 team to win for the remaining rounds — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.

You’ll pick 1 team in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then the National Championship Game winner — if you still have eligible teams to choose from.

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Along with not being able to pick the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.

There are still a lot of points available in the Elite 8. They are:

9 – FAU Owls
6 – Creighton Bluejays
5 – Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs
4 – UConn Huskies
3 – Gonzaga Bulldogs, Kansas State Wildcats
2 – Texas Longhorns

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Elite 8 pick

MIAMI HURRICANES (28-7)

Who they play: Texas Longhorns (29-8)

When: Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Mo.

Prior to last season, the Hurricanes had never been to the Elite 8. Coach Jim Larranaga has proven that basketball can succeed in South Florida, and NIL deals certainly have helped that success.

This Miami team is playing with a lot of confidence, and it only seems to be getting stronger as the NCAA Tournament goes along.

The Hurricanes topped Drake 63-56 in the 1st round, covering a 2.5-point spread — although covering the spread is not necessary in this contest. You just need your pick to win. Miami has defeated — and covered — against Indiana and Houston, too.

As 1.5-point underdogs, the Hurricanes beat the Hoosiers 85-69 in the 2nd round. As 8-point dogs, they beat the top-seeded Cougars 89-75 in the Sweet 16 Friday.

Now, Miami looks to make its 1st Final Four in program history, and it will be facing a Texas team with an interim head coach.

Texas topped Colgate, Penn State and Xavier to get to this point, winning by 12 or more points in 2 of the outings with an average margin of victory of 12.4 PPG.

Texas is the biggest favorite in the Elite 8, per Tipico Sportsbook, but the spread is just 2 buckets. That’s how tight the books expect all of the games to be this weekend. As a fan, that’s what you should want. In a survivor pool, however, that makes it very difficult to advance.

So why pick against Texas, the largest favorite? I just like how Miami is playing. G Isaiah Wong, the ACC Player of the Year, is averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 2.4 APG in the postseason, while hitting 44.4% from behind the 3-point line across 5 games in the ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament.

G Nijel Pack, one of the biggest winners in the NIL game in Miami, has averaged 15.8 PPG with 3.6 RPG, while hitting 40.0% from downtown in 5 postseason contests. G’s Jordan Miller and Wooga Poplar also averaged double figures in points, while F Norchad Omier scored 9.0 PPG and pulled down 11.0 RPG in the 5 postseason contests.

Miami is a deep and consistent team from top to bottom, and it will ‘steer’ the Longhorns home to Austin.

Good luck and make sure to check back before the Final 4 for the next winning pick.

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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Plus, try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator and please gamble responsibly.

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March Madness: Third-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool with a 3rd-round pick.

The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 is hereupon us, and March Madness has certainly lived up to its nickname. Nobody said winning USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool contest would be easy. In fact, out of 8,109 entries, only 309 remain alive heading into the 3rd round.

There are 16 teams remaining, and blue bloods Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina are nowhere to be found in the Sweet 16 for the 2nd time in 3 years. In fact, you have to go back to 2014 to find a recent national champion still remaining — the UConn Huskies.

As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. I’ve been in the “Loser’s Lounge” for a while now, but for those of you who have a shot at the $5K first prize — I hope I can help. But I get it if you want to go it alone as I was bumped on the first day thanks to 15-seed Princeton’s upset of Arizona. Plus, I had 2 losing picks in the 2nd round with Furman (vs. San Diego State) and Auburn (vs. Houston).

Here’s my strategy of how to advance out the Sweet 16, and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

You’ll pick 1 team in the Sweet 16, 1 in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then the National Championship Game winner — if you still have eligible teams to choose from.

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Along with not being able to pick the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds.

There are still a lot of points available in the Sweet 16 and beyond, including the following:

15 – Princeton Tigers
9 – FAU Owls
8 – Arkansas Razorbacks
7 – Michigan State Spartans
6 – Creighton Bluejays
5 – Miami Hurricanes, San Diego State Aztecs
4 – Tennessee Volunteers, UConn Huskies
3 – Gonzaga Bulldogs, Kansas State Wildcats, Xavier Musketeers
2 – Texas Longhorns, UCLA Bruins
1 – Alabama Crimson Tide, Houston Cougars

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Sweet 16 pick

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS (23-12)

Who they play: Princeton Tigers (23-8)

When: Friday, 9 p.m. ET (TBS)

Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville

I love Creighton in this game. Princeton is the lowest seed remaining, and it’s the first time the Tigers have made the Sweet 16 since 1967. It’s been a fun run for Princeton, a school with a rich basketball history.

If you’re old like me, you’ll remember head coach Pete Carril, and you can still see all the backdoor cuts in 1989 on St. Patrick’s Day in 16th-seeded Princeton’s near-miss against mighty No. 1 Georgetown in Providence, R.I. The Tigers led 29-21 at halftime, but the Hoyas pulled out a 50-49 victory.

The Tigers would have been the first 16 seed to pull off such an upset, long before UMBC (2017 upset No. 1 Virginia) and Fairleigh Dickinson (2023 stunned Purdue) made history.

Georgetown led Princeton 50-49 with just 23 seconds left in that 1989 game after an Alonzo Mourning free throw. The Tigers would get the ball back with a chance to a win against a Big East power. Kit Mueller had a chance with 1 tick left, but Mourning got a piece of the shot to keep the Hoyas from becoming a trivia answer.

OK, sorry for the history lesson. You just want a winner, right? Well, so far I’ve been better at providing historical angles than plucking winners in this contest. But it’s interesting, since Princeton is up against another Big East power, and like 1989, it’s going to see a Big East team sending the Tigers home.

Creighton is the largest favorite of the 8 games in this Sweet 16, laying 9.5 points, per Tipico Sportsbook. Fortunately for the contest, we just need it to win outright.

The Bluejays ousted a good NC State team in the 1st round (72-63), and the defending champ Baylor Bears in the 2nd round (85-76). This Creighton team is starting to look like the one which was in USA TODAY’s Coaches Poll and the Associated Press Top 25 earlier in the season — the Bluejays were ranked as high as No. 7 in late November.

Creighton C Ryan Kalkbrenner has been unstoppable in the postseason, averaging 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game in 4 games between the Big East Tournament and NCAA tourney. G Ryan Nembhard is also hot, going for 15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.0 APG in the postseason. They are 2 of 5 Bluejays who average double figures in points.

Creighton is not going to be denied by Princeton as Cinderella’s slipper breaks Friday night.

Good luck and make sure to check back before the Elite 8 for the next winning pick.

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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Plus, try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator and please gamble responsibly.

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March Madness: Second-round strategy for the $5K USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool with 2nd-round picks.

The NCAA Tournament first round is in the rear-view mirror, and there was a nice share of madness. In fact, nearly 5,000 entries in USA TODAY’s NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool were eliminated on Day 1.

Major upsets of No. 2 seed Arizona (by 15th-seeded Princeton) and 4th-seeded Virginia (by 13th-seeded Furman) knocked out a bunch of those entries. Losses by 10th-seeded Utah State (a small favorite vs. 7th-seeded Missouri) and 7th-seeded Texas A&M (a loss to No. 10 seed Penn State) also sent a few people out the door.

Unfortunately, I was also shown the door because of the Arizona loss. My strategy was to play conservative in Round 1 and aim for big points in Round 2 after some expected upsets. However, I never thought in a million years that the undersized Ivy League team in Princeton would take down mighty Arizona, a squad many had winning the whole ball of wax.

As an employee, I’m not eligible to win this NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool contest. While I’m now in the “Loser’s Lounge,” I can still assist those of you who have a shot at the $5K first prize — but I’d understand if you don’t want my advice.

After Day 2 (Friday), 2,988 entries remain out of the 8,107 who signed up.

So, here’s my strategy of how to advance out of Round 2 and eventually win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

A rules reminder: Remaining entries are required to pick 2 teams to win outright in the 2nd round — no spread involved. Once you pick a team, it can’t be used again, similar to an NFL survivor pool.

After the 2nd round, the rules require 1 pick per round — 1 in the Sweet 16, 1 in the Elite 8, 1 in the Final Four and then picking the winner of the National Championship Game — if you still have an eligible team to select.

Along with not being able to choose the same team twice, the other tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds. At this point, there are still a lot of points available in the 2nd round and beyond.

Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+

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Second-round picks

PICK 1: FURMAN PALADINS (28-7)

Who they play: San Diego State Aztecs (28-6)

When: Saturday, 12:10 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: Amway Center, Orlando

Let’s get a winner and some big points with a 13 seed in the 1st game of the 2nd round.

Furman, out of the Southern Conference — or SoCon — stunned Virginia 68-67 as a 5-point underdog in Thursday’s 1st round. G JP Pegues‘ 3-pointer with 2.4 seconds remaining completed a comeback from a second-half, 12-point deficit.

Furman, which averaged 82.1 points per game (PPG) entering the tourney, was held to 68 points, but it outscored Virginia 30-6 behind the 3-point line. The Paladins did only shoot 39.3% (22-for-56) from the field, well below their regular-season average of 48.6% (stats from covers.com), but the Cavs featured one of the top defenses in the country — allowing just 60.3 PPG.

The Paladins showed it could make adjustments and it took very good care of the basketball, turning it over just 9 times. They were outrebounded 39-31, which isn’t a surprise against a larger ACC team. The big difference was going 10-for-28 (35.7%) behind the arc, while holding Virginia to 2-for-12 (16.7%) in the same category.

The Paladins were led by F Jalen Slawson, who posted a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds to go along with 4 assists, a steal and a blocked shot. G Marcus Foster was good for 14 points, including four 3-pointers, and a pair of blocks. Pegues and G Mike Bothwell added 11 points each.

Fifth-seeded San Diego State is a lot like Virginia. Unlike Furman’s all gas, no brakes offense, the Aztecs are much more methodical. They have scored 67 or fewer points in 6 consecutive outings, going 5-1 straight up, while throwing a blanket on the opposition, allowing just 56.7 PPG. So, it’s no surprise that San Diego State has cashed the Under in 9 straight games and 11 of the past 12.

While Furman is on a 6-game win streak, San Diego State enters on a 5-game win streak. San Diego State covered by a hook as a 5.5-point favorite in a 63-57 opening-round victory vs. No. 12 seed Charleston.

G Matt Bradley (17 points) was the only Aztecs player to score in double digits in the win. Plus, they turned the ball over 14 times, and that simply won’t do against the upstart Paladins.

The Aztecs defense yields just 63.4 PPG (per NCAA.com), so the Paladins will have to take good care of the rock again. Teams should do that anyway, but it’s especially imperative against good defensive teams with an offense that slows the tempo and limits offensive opportunities.

Furman proved it could do so in its upset of Virginia, and San Diego State can definitely be had here.

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PICK 2: AUBURN TIGERS (21-12)

Who they play: Houston Cougars (32-3)

When: Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS)

Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham

My plan all along was to take Auburn in this round. The NCAA Tournament, unfairly perhaps, sent Auburn to play in nearby Birmingham despite being a No. 9 seed. That’s a nice, short 110-mile trip for the Tigers and for their throng of raucous fans, too.

With both Auburn, and No. 1 overall Alabama, playing in the night session, ticket prices in Birmingham are among the most-sought and highest-priced for any tourney venue this weekend.

Houston, the top seed in the Midwest, was sluggish in its 63-52 victory over 16th-seeded Northern Kentucky of the Horizon League. The Cougars didn’t come close to covering as 19.5-point favorites. The real issue is G Marcus Sasser, the AAC Player of the Year who suffered a groin injury against Cincinnati in the conference tournament semifinals causing him to miss the title game — a 10-point loss — against Memphis.

Houston coach Kelvin Sampson elected to play Sasser vs. Norther Kentucky rather than rest him against an inferior team, and the result was troublesome for the Cougars’ leading scorer (16.7 points per game).

Groin injuries are super tricky. It doesn’t take much to aggravate them. That’s exactly what happened to Sasser, who played just 14 minutes and scored 5 points before exiting in the 1st half vs. NKU. Sasser didn’t play in the 2nd half as he sat on the bench with his upper leg wrapped.

He said Friday that the decision to play vs. Auburn is his — it’s a pain management thing. With Sasser not 100 percent, the Cougars are prime for the picking.

Auburn was sharp against Iowa in a 1st-round victory as a 2.5-point favorite in an 83-75 triumph. The Tigers shot 46.0% (29-for-63) from the field and 36.4% (8-for-22) from downtown. They were solid at the free-throw line, too, hitting 77.3% (17-for-22), while turning the ball over just 7 times. Six Tigers scored at least 11 points, showing tremendous depth and versatility. F Johni Broome (19 points, 12 rebounds) and G Allen Flanigan (10 points, 10 rebounds) led the way with double-doubles.

This looks like an upset waiting to happen. You can pick up 9 points in the survivor contest by rolling with the Tigers, who will have somewhat of a homecourt advantage … well, except for the Alabama fans likely cheering against them.

Good luck and make sure to check back before the Sweet 16 for the next winning pick!

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For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Plus, try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator and please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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March Madness: How to win $5K in USA TODAY’s NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool

College basketball expert Kevin Erickson is here to help you win the $5K NCAA Men’s Tournament Survivor Pool.

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Now that the First Four games are complete, the real fun begins Thursday as the NCAA Tournament’s field of 64 hits the courts at 8 different venues over the next 2 days. It’s time to embrace the madness, and make a little money in the process.

You’ve probably already filled out your brackets, but USA TODAY has another unique NCAA Tournament contest in which you can win $5,000.

Can you survive? USA TODAY Sports’ Men and Women’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pools are here with a $5,000 prize for each contest! Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!

An employee, I’m not eligible to win, but there’s no rule against me helping you win $5K.

So, here’s my strategy of how to win the Men’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool.

Each round, you’ll pick a set number of teams. For the 1st round, you must pick 3 teams to simply win their games — no spread involved. However, once you use a team, similar to an NFL survivor pool, you won’t be able to pick that team again.

In the 2nd round, you’re required to pick 2 teams to win outright. After that, the rules require 1 pick per round, through the Sweet 16, the Elite 8, the Final Four and the title game. Simple, right?

Along with not being able to pick the same team twice, another tricky rule is that points are earned equal to your winning teams’ seeds. Staring with the 1st round, I’m not going to worry about points. My goal is to survive and advance. There are often too many upsets and I’m not going to take that risk of getting knocked out on Day 1.

Let’s treat this as a short marathon, not a 60-yard dash. We’ll earn our points in the later rounds.

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First-round picks

PICK 1: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (29-5)

Who they play: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (24-10)

When: Thursday, 2:45 p.m. ET (CBS)

Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham

No brainer here, right? Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament after winning the SEC regular season, the SEC tourney and 29 games overall.

Since I’m not sold on ‘Bama going all the way, I’m not saving the Tide for the singular pick in the later rounds. However, there is virtually no way this team falls to Texas A&M-CC, which picked up its 1st NCAA Tournament victory in school history in Tuesday’s First Four. It would be an amazing story for the No. 16 seed to advance, but it’s not happening.

The Islanders can roll up plenty of points, going for 80.2 points per game (PPG) this season, ranking 17th in the country, according to NCAA.com. They’re also one of the better free-throw shooting teams, hitting at 78.9% to rank 6th. But none of that matters as the Tide will roll all over the Islanders defense which coughed up 72.5 PPG (251st), while allowing teams to shoot 44.7% from the field (242nd), and 33.0% from behind the arc (1234d).

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, the only college in America on its own island, will head home to the shores of the Gulf of Mexico content with a First Four win in Dayton, and a loss to the No. 1 overall team in the tourney.

Sign up: USA TODAY Sports’ Men Basketball Survivor Pool.

PICK 2: HOUSTON COUGARS (31-3)

Who they play: Northern Kentucky Norse (22-12)

When: Thursday, 9:20 p.m. ET (TNT)

Where: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham

Later on Thursday night, at the same venue Alabama will advance, Houston takes the court. The Cougars are another No. 1 seed which I am not feeling to win all the marbles, although they’re more than capable of ousting a lowly 16-seed from the Horizon League.

Houston lost just 3 games all season, including a setback against the aforementioned Crimson Tide in December. It was also bumped off by non-tournament team Temple, while suffering a setback in the AAC Tournament championship game against Memphis.

Houston looked very mortal against Memphis in the AAC final, mainly because leading scorer G Marcus Sasser is nursing a groin injury, which is tricky at best. Without Sasser, the Cougars were in disarray. They managed just 65 points in a 10-point loss to Memphis, while shooting a 31.3% (20-for 64) from the field, and a dismal 24% (6-for-25) from downtown.

Like Alabama, I’m not saving Houston for later in the contest. Sasser is a question mark for the opener, and whether he plays or not, the Cougars will do enough to advance past NKU. But if Sasser were to aggravate his injury, the Cougars are no sure thing when the competition and pressure gets ratcheted up.

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PICK 3: ARIZONA WILDCATS (28-6)

Who they play: Princeton Tigers (21-8)

When: Thursday, 4:10 p.m. ET (TNT)

Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

I saved the best for last. I’m picking Arizona on a handful of brackets to win the whole ball of wax.

I love the combination of F Azuolas Tubelis and C Oumar Ballo in the frontcourt for Arizona, although it certainly has solid guard play to complement the bigs. This is a team which is going to make a very deep run, perhaps all the way to NRG Stadium in Houston for one shining moment.

In Arizona’s opener against Princeton from the Ivy League, it’s a near certainty that the Wildcats are stronger than the Tigers. Princeton’s 3 main forwards stand 6-foot-9 or shorter, while Tubelis is 6-foot-11 and Ballo is an even 7-foot-0. Those two will make life extremely difficult for any Ivy Leaguer trying to negotiate the paint.

The Tigers will be forced to use more medium and long-range shots, and that’s just not their game. The Tigers were a dismal 34.4% from 3-point land (164th), and a not-so-great 71.2% from the free-throw line (199th). Expect the Tigers to be in for a long afternoon, especially since the defense coughs up 68.6 PPG (131st).

Arizona is a high-flying offense, and this should be an breathe-easy 1st- round victory as we inch closer to the $5K.

Check back before Round 2 for our next winning picks!

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