Update 10:46 a.m. ET: Early favorite Forte — at 3-1 — was scratched Saturday morning over concerns of a bruised right front foot.
Original column below (published 6:03 a.m. ET)
It’s time for the 2023 Kentucky Derby, which will be the 149th running of the Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville. It’s the first jewel in the Triple Crown of horse racing.
Practical Move, one of the Derby favorites, was scratched Thursday due to an elevated temperature. Practical Move was listed with the 4th-shortest odds at most sportsbook. With his exit, Cyclone Mischief was added to the field for Saturday’s event.
Skinner was also scratched due to a high temperature, joining Lord Miles and Continuar. The latter was scratched after his trainer said the horse was not in top form to run. As far as Lord Miles is concerned, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was suspended indefinitely by Churchill Downs due to the death of 2 of his horses at the track after recent races.
Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
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2023 Kentucky Derby: What you need to know
- The last time we had 4 horses scratched from the Kentucky Derby was 2015, the year American Pharoah won
- Hit Show will be in post position 1, ridden by jockey Manny Franco
- Opening favorite Forte goes off from post position 15, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. Forte was the winner of the Florida Derby
- Japanese jockey Kazushi Kimura will be upon the back of NAR entrant Mandarin Hero
- Last year’s winner, Rich Strike, had the 2nd-longest odds of a Derby winner at 80-to-1
- Trainer Bob Baffert has won 2 of the past 5 Kentucky Derbys, and 6 times overall, tying Ben A. Jones for the all-time record. However, Baffert does not have a horse in the race for the 2nd year in a row due to a legal fight and lawsuit as a result of a 2-year suspension following the 2021 Kentucky Derby for a drug detected in a post-race test
- Jockey John Velazquez, who rode Baffert steed Authentic in 2021, will be aboard Reincarnate Saturday. He was also aboard Medina Spirit in 2022, but that win was stripped to the aforementioned positive drug test
- Trainer Todd Pletcher has 3 entries in the Derby: Forte, Kingsbarns and Tapit Trice
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2023 Kentucky Derby – Expert pick
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:48 a.m. ET.
Forte (+300) is the favorite, but betting the favorite is no fun. While Ortiz Jr. is a decorate jockey, he has yet to win at the Kentucky Derby.
I’m focusing on ANGEL OF EMPIRE (+800), the winner of the Arkansas Derby. Jockey Flavien Prat rode Country House to victory at the 2019 Kentucky Derby. The Brad Cox-trained horse won the Risen Star G2 race at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans in mid-February.
2023 Kentucky Derby – Long shot
If you want a long shot pick, roll the dice on REINCARNATE (+5000).
As mentioned, Velazquez will be aboard Reincarnate, the Tim Yakteen-trained horse. Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby in 2021 and 2022, but Medina Spirit was later stripped of the victory due to a positive drug test. That’s not Velazquez’s problem or doing. He is a proven winner, and he knows how to get the most out of his ride. Velazquez was also aboard Always Dreaming in 2017 and Animal Kingdom in 2011.
2023 Kentucky Derby prop pick
EXACTA – ANGEL OF EMPIRE AND REINCARNATE
Playing the No. 14 horse Angel of Empire to win, and No. 7 Reincarnate to come in second in that exact order nets a potential return of $408 on a simple $1 bet.
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