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The Cleveland Browns haven’t made a lot of noise this offseason, indicating that they believe in their current squad to make some noise in a tough AFC North. The cornerstone of their offense is RB Nick Chubb as the Browns will be counting on his dominance in the backfield to help them have a successful season.
Below, we look at Nick Chubb’s 2023 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.
All indications are that the connection between QB Deshaun Watson and WR Amari Cooper will be very solid, but the Cleveland offense still will only go as far as Chubb can take the Browns. With the loss of RB Kareem Hunt to free agency this offseason — still unsigned — the talented RB duo of Chubb and Hunt is broken up, but that is great news for fantasy owners.
The Browns have liked what they’ve seen from 2nd-year RB Jerome Ford, but it seems as if his role this season will mostly consist of 3rd-down plays and some receiving targets. He likely won’t get as many looks as Hunt did, meaning those looks will go to Chubb.
Look for the Browns to lean on Chubb for the vast majority of their red-zone plays and rushing yards this season.
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Nick Chubb’s ADP: 18.23
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
Chubb’s current ADP projects him to be an early 2nd-round pick in most leagues. He ranks 5th in ADP among running backs, which is a little low considering who’s above him and the loss of Hunt. Chubb will get more carries this season because the Browns won’t have Hunt to lean on as an RB2, giving Chubb more opportunities in the red zone.
Keep an eye on Detroit Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who is the 7th-ranked back with an ADP of 25.94. I am high on the Georgia Tech product as I believe his versatility in the running and passing games will lead to him having a great rookie campaign, but I would not draft him above Chubb.
There is a rookie running who ranks above Chubb. Bijan Robinson, who was drafted 8th overall — and the first RB taken in the 2023 NFL Draft — by the Atlanta Falcons, has an ADP of 8.60. That has the former Texas Longhorn star with the 4th-best ADP among all players. Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (2.76 ADP), Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (5.25) and San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (6.08) are the top 4.
I expect Robinson will get a lot of touches and will have a phenomenal rookie campaign, but I’m not quite sold on drafting him over Chubb, who is already solidified as a great fantasy back.
Even with his ADP putting Chubb as the 5th-best fantasy back, I believe he is at least 4th. Following McCaffrey and Robinson, New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley ranks 3rd (15.58) and Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers (9.72) is 4th.
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Nick Chubb’s 2022 stats
Games: 17
Carries | rushing yards: 302 | 1,525
Rushing touchdowns: 12
Receptions | receiving yards: 27 | 239
Receiving touchdowns: 1
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Where should you draft Chubb?
Last season Chubb finished 3rd in rushing yards in the NFL, 128 yards behind Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs and 13 yards behind Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans.
Chubb isn’t the type of receiver to get a lot of looks in the passing game, but he should get more nods in the rushing game this season than ever before.
Expect Chubb to put up very similar numbers to a season ago and look for him to see his role increased slightly with Hunt out of the picture, Chubb should have another career year and eclipse 300 rushing attempts and 1,500 rushing yards for the 2nd straight season.
Chubb has shown no signs of decline and does not have a lot of injury history, meaning he is a very reliable back.
Draft Chubb with a late 1st-round pick or very early 2nd-round pick and feel confident having him as an RB1. There are very few backs I would take over Chubb and his ADP agrees.
If you land with Chubb as your RB1 you should be very happy.
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