The 2021 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday, Sept. 9, so there’s no better time than the present to take a deeper dive into some of the statistical futures. Below, we look at the odds of the quarterbacks to finish with the most 2021 passing touchdowns, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers set the league pace with 48 TD tosses in 2020, as the veteran enjoyed a renaissance MVP season at age 36. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson tied for second with 40 TD passes.
It marked the third straight season the league’s MVP finished atop the touchdown pass leaderboard as Rodgers followed Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (36 TD throws in 2019) and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (50 in 2018).
From 2000-15, Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees combined to lead the league in touchdown tosses 12 times in 16 seasons. Of course, only Brady is still active at age 44.
2021 NFL passing TD leader picks
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:50 p.m. ET.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+320)
The Kansas City QB is the favorite for a reason after averaging 38 scoring passes over his first three seasons under center, and he was right at his average a year ago when he finished fourth with 38 TDs in 15 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (+500)
Brady is the oldest quarterback to lead the league in TD passes, doing so with 36 at age 38 way back in 2015. With the unparalleled cast of pass catchers running it back in Tampa — including a now-healthy TE O.J. Howard — we very well could see Brady make even more history at age 44.
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Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (+900)
Wilson won the 2017 passing TD title with 34 and hit a career-high with 40 touchdowns last year. A similar performance throwing to the elite wideout duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett could put Wilson back on top.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+750)
After running away with the league aerial TD title for his second such crown in the last five years, Rodgers is tied with Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen for the third-best odds this season. Expect him to be as motivated as ever with all that’s gone on since the end of the 2020 regular season.
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Long shot: Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+2000)
As a 2020 rookie, Herbert finished 10th in the league with 31 passing scores in 15 games. Any kind of sophomore improvement will give him a decent shot at finishing No. 1.
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