Grading WR DeSean Jackson’s deal with the Rams: A-

The Rams signed veteran receiver DeSean Jackson, who should be a perfect complement to Matthew Stafford if he can stay healthy.

Last season, the Rams had just 10 receptions of over 20 air yards on 36 targets for 330 yards and two touchdowns. To put that into perspective, Atlanta’s Calvin Ridley led all receivers in 2020 with 16 deep receptions n 36 targets for 475 yards and two touchdowns. This was more about Jared Goff’s limitations as a deep thrower than the relative inability of Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Kupp, or Van Jefferson to get anything done deep, and now that the Rams have Matthew Stafford under center, it was time for Sean McVay to get another deep target on the cheap. Because in 2020 with the Lions, Stafford completed 28 of 67 deep passes for 936 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions.

So, McVay went out and got veteran speedster DeSean Jackson on a one-year deal. Terms have not yet been disclosed, but given the fact that Jackson has seen action in just eight games over his last two seasons, we’re assuming it’s closer to the vet minimum than anything massive. Even with the time Jackson has missed in 2019 and 2020, he still shows the ability to beat a defense deep, even when the 2020 version of Carson Wentz was throwing him the ball:

Assuming that Jackson’s deal is entirely reasonable for his age (34) and injury history, let’s call this a “B.” But if Jackson is able to stay healthy all season, and presents Stafford with this kind of deep target, we’ll be revisiting this as one of the more impactful low-key deals of the 2021 league year.

 

Grading S Anthony Harris’ deal with the Eagles: A+

The Eagles added one of the NFL’s best safeties for a relative pittance. It’s great for them, and good for Anthony Harris.

Not that the Eagles had that much of a safety problem last season — their four most prominent safeties (Rodney McLeod, Jalen Mills, K’Von Wallace, and Marcus Epps) combined to allow two touchdowns and picked off four passes — but with Mills off to New England, and former Vikings safety Anthony Harris on the open market, Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman put together one of the bigger steals of the 2021 free-agency period with the signing of Harris to a one-year, $5 million contract.

My reaction was succinct.

Harris’ 2019 season was one of the most remarkable for any safety in recent years. Then, he allowed just 14 catches on 20 targets for 164 yards, 47 yards after the catch, seven interceptions, no touchdowns, and an opponent passer rating of 55.0. He was the best deep-third safety in the NFL, and the Vikings responded by giving him the franchise tag designation as opposed to signing him to a long-term contract. That gave him a one-year guaranteed salary of $11,441, but as it turned out, Harris should have preferred an opportunity to bet on himself.

Harris had a reversal of fortune as the Vikings did in 2020 — the team went from 10-6 to 7-9, and Harris’ own stats certainly implied regression. He allowed 15 catches on 28 targets for 236 yards, 40 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 121.4. Now, he was working with an entirely new cornerback group, and the Vikings’ pass rush took a major nose dive. (from 48 sacks in 2019 to just 23 in 2020). That’s going to affect any safety negatively, and as he showed in this near-pick of Matthew Stafford in Week 17, Harris was still anticipating offenses and making plays as he had the season before. The results just weren’t there.

Still have questions? Here’s Harris in that same game, rolling 40 yards deep and breaking off his own assignment to deny Mohamed Sanu a touchdown. (Also: This is an insane throw by Stafford. Get happy, Rams fans).

Sometimes you find yourself in a disastrous situation, and there’s no way out. That’s what Harris faced in 2020. It unfairly depressed his market, but the Eagles are the beneficiary here, and Harris should thrive with a better front four and more experienced (if inconsistent) cornerbacks.

Grading QB Mitchell Trubisky’s deal with the Bills: A

The Bills signing Mitchell Trubisky as a backup makes more sense than you may think.

The interesting thing about former Bears bust Mitchell Trubisky signing a one-year deal with the Bills is that had this happened in last year’s free-agency cycle, when the last memory of Josh Allen was Allen horfing all over himself in Buffalo’s wild-card loss to the Texans to end the Bills’ 2019 season, we may be viewing this as a quarterback competition. But the Bills were patient with Allen, believing that his athletic potential and quarterback acumen would eventually meet up, and it certainly did in the 2020 season. The Bills made it all the way to the AFC Championship, Allen played at an MVP level at times, and all was well all of a sudden.

The hidden ingredient in Allen’s improvement was offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who gave Allen the ideal route concepts and reads against man coverage, and managed his quarterback when late coverage switches started to make Allen’s head explode. Trubisky is where Allen was before he became the next-level version of himself — a quarterback with above-average athletic potential with very little in the way of consistency.

The Bears decided to move on from Trubisky, who they traded up to select with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft, following the 2020 season. They had already declined his fifth-year option in 2020, so unless Trubisky performed at a… well, at a Josh Allen 2020 level in 2020, there was not going to be a reunion. Not that Trubisky was anywhere near that, but he wasn’t grievously awful, especially in the second half of the season. From Week 11 through Chicago’s wild-card loss to the Saints, Trubisky completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,495 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions.

Now, under Daboll, Trubisky will have a no-pressure gig unless Allen gets hurt, and he’ll be able to re-learn the position with a playbook that has been proven friendly to remedial quarterbacks. And if Trubisky does have to start for any length of time, a heavy dose of boot-action would do him a world of good. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, Trubisky completed 31 of 46 passes for 304 yards, 106 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Under Daboll, Allen completed 12 of 23 such passes for 120 yards, 69 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, and one interception.

Nobody is going to mistake Trubisky for Allen under the best of circumstances, but this is an ideal place for Trubisky to take what was a decent season and build on it. The deal also gives the Bills a decent scheme-fit backup, and that has more value than people think… until the decent scheme-fit backup is needed as a starter.

Why the 49ers are making a huge mistake by keeping QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Through four years with the 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo has failed to improve, and he hasn’t been healthy. It’s time to cut bait.

On February 8, 2019, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo signed a five-year, $137.5 million contract with the 49ers, who had traded their 2019 second-round pick to the Patriots the previous October for Garoppolo’s services. Obviously, head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch thought they had their franchise quarterback of the future, based on Garoppolo’s 17 games and two starts over three seasons as Tom Brady’s backup.

And given Garoppolo’s playing style (think a less impressive version of Tony Romo), it would seem that he’d perfectly fit Shanahan’s playbook, which demands a quarterback with a good head on his shoulders and the ability to run boot and make throws all over the field, but especially timing and rhythm throws to the short and intermediate areas of the play.

That hasn’t really worked out for a few reasons. First, there’s Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy. In four seasons with the 49ers, he’s played in just 31 of a possible 64 regular-season games, and though he did help the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance at the end of the 2019 season, Shanahan’s game scripts in that postseason told you a lot about he views Garoppolo. I’ve always believed that coaches can say whatever they want about their players; they’ll tell you how they really feel when they show you how those players are deployed.

In the divisional round against the Vikings, Garoppolo completed just 11 of 19 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. In the conference championship win over the Packers, Garoppolo went with the 1973 Bob Griese script with six completions on eight attempts for 77 yards.

And in San Francisco’s loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV, Garoppolo completed 20 of 31 passes for 219 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and more than one missed open shot downfield. This deep overthrow to receiver Emmanuel Sanders with the Chiefs up 24-20, 1:40 left in the game, and the 49ers facing third-and-10 from the Kansas City 49-yard line is the veritable personification of the Jimmy Garoppolo Experience. If you task him with too much, you will experience regret.

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On fourth-and-10, the Chiefs matched San Francisco’s downfield routes, Garoppolo got sacked, and that was that.

The 49ers got the ball back after the Chiefs scored a touchdown to make the game 31-20, and Garoppolo responded by throwing a deep interception into double coverage from a clean pocket. Ballgame.

I mean… if that’s your guy, that’s your guy. I’m not here to tell Kyle Shanahan how to evaluate a quarterback. But in 2020, Garoppolo played in just six games, struggled through ankle issues, and completed 97 of 140 passes for 1,096 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions before the 49ers shut him down. And things weren’t much better from a tape perspective. Teams have the book on Garoppolo, and that’s pretty clear. It was abundantly clear in Week 7, when Garoppolo faced his old team and completed 20 of 25 passes for 277 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.

All you have to do to limit his effectiveness is to mush-rush the edges so it’s harder for him to boot outside, and muddy the middle reads so he has to think beyond his capabilities. Garoppolo is not, and has never been, a comfortable “Middle of the Field Closed” (MOFC) thrower. If things don’t make sense to him over the middle, bad things are going to happen. We saw this in the Super Bowl, and his interception by Patriots safety Devin McCourty in Week 7 is another perfect example.

Pre-snap, the Patriots showed a Cover-0 look — a man-based blitz concept with no deep safety. But McCourty dropped to the deep third, safety Terrence Brooks worked to rob the middle, and Garoppolo threw behind tight end George Kittle for an easy pick. You see this a lot from Garoppolo and other rudimentary quarterbacks — they throw late, and throw their receivers closed — because their processing speed does not match the speed of the game.

From 2017 through 2020, among quarterbacks with at least 500 passing attempts, Garoppolo ranks 35th in attempts (883), 32nd in 7,completions (596), 30th in passing yards (7,352), 28th in touchdowns (46, tied with Kyler Murray, who has just two NFL seasons), and 24th in interceptions (26). He ranks 10th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (6.98) and 11th in passer rating (98.1), which is nice, but beyond the injury issues, the limitations he presents for a passing game are pretty considerable.

All of that leads to this: As the new league year turned over on Wednesday, new contract years were final, and the 49ers officially invested a cap hit of $26.4 million in Garoppolo for the 2021 season. Had they released Garoppolo, the dead cap hit would have been just $2.8 million. So now, with a reduced salary cap of $182.5 million, most of their secondary still on the open market, and the quarterback position still undefined, there’s Garoppolo with the seventh-highest cap number of any quarterback in the NFL, and the 49ers leaving $23.6 million difference on the table for a quarterback who has not earned that level of commitment. Not even close.

Lynch has seemed unperturbed by the schism between productivity, availability, and cost.

“So, we don’t need room right now,” Lynch said on January 4. “As we start to go through and prioritize and we’re in the process of doing that right now. When we start signing those players, that might be necessary. I think we’ve had good discussions with Jimmy. It’s been encouraging to see him back out on the field. Kyle spoke of it last week. There’s a lift when he’s out there. It’s one of the qualities he has that I admire. I think his teammates thrive off his presence, whatever it is. I don’t know why, but I do know why, but they do. I mean, that’s just kind of that ‘it’ factor. He has that and so that’s been fun to see him out there. I know that we plan on visiting with him here in the next couple of days. He’s working really hard.

“I think we’re encouraged, because when he saw the specialist and I think that was the hesitancy to put him back out there, that the severity of his second high ankle or reinjury led to, ‘Hey, there is an option where he might have to have surgery.’ We wanted to avoid that at all costs. We were able to do that. Unfortunately, we didn’t get him back on the field, but he was around the team and that was important. He was a good support for the guys on the team and in that room. So now, we just plow forward and we’ll see if we get to where that becomes a reality, where we need to do that.”

I am the furthest thing from a salary cap expert, so I reached out to two people who actually are: Jason Fitzgerald, who runs the seminal OverTheCap.com site, and Brad Spielberger, Pro Football Focus‘ salary cap expert who is also a contributor to OverTheCap.com. One of the primary reasons Garoppolo is finally “releasable” is that the 2021 portion of his contract represents the first year in which the deal isn’t ridiculously front-loaded, or Garoppolo doesn’t have a huge guaranteed roster bonus on Day 1. So, I’m thinking the 49ers can take some of that cap hit and lay it off to 2022, the last year of Garoppolo’s contract, and a year in which everyone knows there’s going to be a much higher salary cap based on multiple things.

“I think what they would be looking to do, and waiting until these spots officially fill gives them more leverage, is to do a simple pay cut for this year and leave 2022 as is,” Fitzgerald said. “I think the market is kind of setting with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton going for $10 million, and last year’s Nick Foles deal at $8 million, so you would go to him to see if you can slash his money in half, guarantee that number, and give him a chance to earn some of it back via higher-end incentives.

“If he refuses, and a trade isn’t an option, maybe they would do as you are saying by converting some money to a bonus to move half of it to 2022 (or guaranteeing some 2022 salary in return for a reduction this year), but I think they are ok with the cap this year even after the Williams deal.”

Re-signing left tackle Trent Williams to a six-year, $138.06 million contract presents the 49ers with a highly favorable cap situation, as Williams’ first-year cap hit in 2021 is just $8,226,250. Then, the bonuses and other automatic parts of the contract start to kick in, and if Williams is less effective for any reason, you start to look at the escape hatch via digestible dead money. Which in Williams’ case starts to become more manageable in 2023, when his cap hit is $26,27 million, and the dead money is $19,310 million. The difference with Williams is that he’s already proven to be one of the best players at his position, and he’s done so for a long time. Garoppolo holds no such chit.

“I held out this whole time that I think he could get traded or cut for this exact reason, because there’s almost no financial penalty,” Spielberger told me. “They could push some money out if they wanted to, but they probably don’t want to if they can avoid it.

“And even with the trade, I could see other teams balk at giving up draft capital knowing that he’s super cuttable. They may wait until the draft to see if they can improve their position; the salary won’t get the vet protection until Week 1.”

So, perhaps the 49ers are playing the long game here. Contracts can turn into mistakes and albatrosses for all kinds of different reasons, and this isn’t Garoppolo’s “fault” in the same way some of the worst contracts in NFL history have become. By all accounts, Garoppolo has done his level best when he’s been on the field. It’s just that the best hasn’t been good enough, or often enough, and if Garoppolo is San Francisco’s starting quarterback as the season begins, it starts to look like a team trying to justify a mistake more than anything else.

The best NFL free-agent signings in 2021 (so far)

Which free-agent signings have been the best of the NFL’s 2021 league year?

When we talk about free agent signings, it’s always more fun to discuss the busts, unless you’re one of the guys responsible for signing a David Boston or Albert Haynesworth. But just as there are those mistakes in free agency that get people fired, there are also those moves that propel teams forward for the right price. You can ask the Buccaneers and a certain future Hall of Fame quarterback about that.

Through the start of the new league year, here are the signings and re-signings we think will make their teams the happiest in the 2021 season and beyond.

Grading Patrick Peterson’s deal with the Vikings: D

It’s tough to admit, but Patrick Peterson just doesn’t have it anymore. The Vikings failed to realize this.

Sometimes as an impartial NFL analyst, you hate writing these things. Because there are times when you have to admit in public that a player just doesn’t have it anymore. And that player might be a future Hall of Famer and a great guy who has done most everything the right way. Sadly, that’s what must now be said about Patrick Peterson, the eight-time Pro Bowler, three-time All-Pro, and member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s All-2010s team. All of those awards are legit, but Peterson’s last two seasons have been — and there’s no other way to put it — a comparative disaster.

The Vikings just signed Peterson, who had never played for anyone but the Cardinals, to a one-year, $10 million deal. That’s not big money for a cornerback per se, but it doesn’t do much for a Minnesota secondary that could lose safety Anthony Harris in free agency and has two 2020 rookies — Cameron Dantzler and Jeff Gladney — who struggled through most of their inaugural seasons.

Peterson missed the first six games of the 2019 season due to a suspension for a violations of the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. In just 10 games that season, per Pro Football Focus, he allowed 39 receptions on 58 targets for 527 yards, 217 yards after the catch, four touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 104.6. It was Peterson’s first NFL season in which he allowed an opponent passer rating over 100, and the first time he was not named to a Pro Bowl. Peterson followed that up with a 2020 campaign in which he allowed 50 catches in 75 targets for 677 yards, 206 yards after the catch, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 100.8. Peterson also racked up 10 penalties last season, the most by any defensive back.

At age 30 (he’ll turn 31 in July), Peterson isn’t going to make a ton of plays anymore by matching the league’s best receivers through every nuance of their routes. But he does still bring minimal value as a guy who knows how to read quarterbacks, has an excellent sense of where the ball is going, and gets there to create incompletions and interceptions at times. The Vikings  just have to understand the value of his adaptive strategies, and will need to work around the skills that have eroded over time.

This with the aforementioned duo of 2020 rookies in Dantzler and Gladney who combined to allow 11 touchdowns to two interceptions last season. Minnesota’s secondary, which has been quite hospitable to opponents in the last few seasons, could be just that once again.

Grading C Alex Mack’s deal with the 49ers: A+

The 49ers agreed to a deal with veteran center Alex Mack, who will play for Kyle Shanahan for the third time in his NFL career.

Alex Mack was the Browns’ starting center for just five games in 2014 when Kyle Shanahan spent that season in Cleveland as the team’s offensive coordinator, but Shanahan saw enough to persuade the Falcons to sign Mack to a five-year, $45 million deal in 2016, when Shanahan was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator, and the Falcons rode Shanahan’s offensive concepts to their only Super Bowl appearance. Now, with the news that the 49ers have signed Mack to a one-year, $5.5 million deal, Shanahan and Mack are together again for the third time.

It’s a necessary move for San Francisco, as the Weston Richburg deal never quite worked out due to multiple injuries, and Shanahan had to alternate between Daniel Brunskill and Ben Garland at center with mixed results. Mack may not be what he was at his Pro Bowl peak, but he’s a tough blocker who allowed just one sack and 25 total pressures last season. And he obviously has more than a passing familiarity with Shanahan’s multi-tiered, motion-heavy offense, which is a big plus. The big news about San Francisco’s offensive line is obviously Trent Williams’ mega-deal, but this is a sneaky-good signing that will improve that line in the short term.

Grading LB Jayon Brown re-signing with the Titans: A-

The Titans are bringing back linebacker Jaylon Brown to a defense that should improve its pass-rush presence.

Brown’s 2020 season ended in November with a dislocated elbow, but before that, and in his previous seasons, the 2017 fifth-round pick out of UCLA had established himself as a top-tier linebacker in coverage, which is an obviously important skill set in today’s NFL. Brown allowed three touchdowns to just one interception in 2020, as well as 37 catches on 53 targets for 328 yards, 204 yards after the catch, and an opponent passer rating of 97.1, but the Titans also had a negligible pass rush and questions in the secondary last season. The former issue should improve exponentially with the additions of edge-rushers Bud Dupree and Denico Autry.

More likely for the Titans, who re-signed Brown to a one-year, $5.25 million contract on Wednesday, is that they’re underpaying for the guy who allowed no touchdowns and had two interceptions in his previous two seasons. Brown is also capable of getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and he’s also underrated as a run defender, blowing up run fits with his speed and energy.

Grading WR A.J. Green’s deal with the Cardinals: D

The Cardinals are taking a one-year gamble on veteran receiver A.J. Green, but what are they getting for $6 million?

A.J. Green made the Pro Bowl in each of his first seven seasons in the NFL, which is pretty remarkable when you consider that Andy Dalton was his primary quarterback through that time. From 2011 through 2017, Green ranked fourth in targets (949), fifth in receptions (556), fourth in receiving yards (8,213), and sixth in touchdowns (57). At his peak, Green was unquestionably one of the best receivers in football, but his age 32 season with the Bengals was his worst by far.

Last season, Green caught just 47 passes on 104 targets for 523 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2017, and it’s a mystery as to why the Cardinals would spend $6 million guaranteed on a one-year to find out if 2020 was an aberration.