The NFL season is closing in and we can look ahead and project how teams will do. Coaching is a big factor in team performance, which is why coaches of teams who overachieve tend to be recognized for the NFL Coach of the Year award. Who should we look at for the 2021 honor? Below, we look at the odds to win the 2021 NFL Coach of the Year award, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets.
There has not been a repeat winner of the award since Joe Gibbs won in 1982 and 1983. Last year’s winner was Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and the year before that it was John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens.
It is a regular-season award, but the winner’s team is not usually the Super Bowl champion. The winner of the award typically leads a team that has great regular-season success when not necessarily expected to.
The Browns have rarely had success and won 11 games last season. The Ravens won 14 games with a second-year quarterback under center.
So to project a Coach of the Year, you have to look at teams who will absolutely dominate or be surprisingly good.
2021 NFL Coach of the Year picks
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, Aug. 23.
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (+1500)
Shanahan is largely viewed as one of the best coaches in the league but has only one winning season in his four years as the head coach of the Niners. That one year, they went to the Super Bowl.
They dealt with injuries last season but have a talented roster. They are not the favorites to win the NFC West, so if they remain healthy and win the toughest division in the league, especially if rookie QB Trey Lance ends up starting at some point, Shanahan probably wins it.
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)
Staley is a rookie head coach with a promising second-year quarterback in Justin Herbert. If they are a double-digit win team and make the postseason, which is not beyond realistic possibilities, Staley is a perfect pick. It is why he has the shortest odds among all coaches.
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Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals (+3000)
Kingsbury has some of the longest odds to win and is viewed by some as being on the hot seat. However, the team stacked the roster with veteran players who have had storied careers and QB Kyler Murray enters his third season. The Cardinals have taken the necessary step each year under Kingsbury, although they faltered late last season to lose out on a postseason berth.
The Cards play in the toughest division in football but have a roster with a Super Bowl ceiling. They could be this year’s Cleveland Browns or Buffalo Bills if things work out. Kingsbury makes a great value pick.
Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints (+2000)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the clear favorites in the NFC South to win the division, as they are the defending Super Bowl champs and are bringing back the whole roster. If the Saints are competitive and can get to 10 or 11 wins with either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill at quarterback, it might end up being the finest coaching performance of Payton’s career.
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Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys (+3000)
McCarthy is another long shot but he gets QB Dak Prescott back and they play in a weak division. The Cowboys, if they stay healthy, should have one of the best offenses in the league and appear to have an improved defensive unit. If they run away with the NFC East, McCarthy would be the guy, especially being in only his second season as the Cowboys head coach.
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