Tag: 2021 fantasy football busts

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 17

Reflecting on 2021 fantasy breakouts, disappointments and more.

As we enter championship weekend in the majority of leagues, it’s time to take look back and analyze the fantasy year that was.

It was a season that saw Derrick Henry start strong — and division-rival Jonathan Taylor finish strong — as they ruled the running back ranks.

It was a season with an intriguing mix of fresh — and very familiar — faces populating the top 10 of fantasy quarterback rankings.

And it was a season where Cooper Kupp dominated the fantasy wide receiver field in record-setting fashion en route to the probable first wide receiver Triple Crown campaign (league leader in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns) since Steve Smith in 2005.

On the flip side, we had the usual allotment of brutal injuries, fantasy duds, and disappointments — not to mention an untimely rash of late-season COVID cases — which has derailed an untold number of well-laid draft plans and league championship runs.

It’s impossible to encapsulate all that went into fantasy 2021 — with a championship-round chapter yet to come — but we are looking at each of the four main fantasy positions this week and selecting a positional MVP, a surprise, and a disappointment for the season to date. All statistics and positional rankings are complete through play in Week 16.

Here we go, kicking things off as usual with our selections at …

Quarterback

Positional MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady likely won’t end up as the year’s highest-scoring fantasy QB, and his rushing numbers (28 carries-81 yards-2 touchdowns) are woefully behind the times in this era of highly coveted, dual-threat QBs who routinely tack on an extra 8-to-10 fantasy points to their weekly scores via their legs.

But Brady was pacing the league with 4,580 passing yards and 37 TD passes through Week 16 and ranked third with 397.10 fantasy points and an average of 26.5 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring) — all while leading the defending champion Bucs to an 11-4 record and their first NFC South title since 2007.

Oh, and you might have heard that Brady is doing so at the age of 44 — older than more than a third (12) of the league’s 32 head coaches.

Surprise standout: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

This second-year QB had his rookie year cut short (10 games total) by a devastating multi-ligament knee injury and was the 13th quarterback selected, on average, in fantasy drafts this past summer.

But on the wings of his semifinal-deciding 43.35-point outing Sunday in which he shredded the Baltimore Ravens for a franchise single-game-record 525 yards and four TD tosses, he ranks sixth at the position with 351.05 total fantasy points and 4,165 yards.

Burrow also is tied for seventh with 30 passing scores — while adding two more on the ground — and has teamed with three top-30 fantasy wide receivers to form one of the league’s most formidable aerial attacks.

Disappointment: The 2021 rookie class

Five quarterbacks were selected in the upper half of the first round of the NFL draft last spring, and over the summer, three of those QBs (No. 15 Trevor Lawrence, No. 18 Justin Fields and No. 19 Trey Lance) were selected among the top 20, on average, in fantasy drafts.

But the New England Patriots’ Mac Jones (20th with 248.95 points) is the only rookie QB currently in the top 20 in total fantasy points, but even he ranks 30th with an average of 16.6 fantasy points per game among QBs who have played in at least five contests.

Lawrence, meanwhile, is 22nd at the position with 239.35 total fantasy points and is followed by fellow rookies Fields (29th with 175.5 points), Zach Wilson (30th with 168.75) and Davis Mills (31st with 160.8).

Lance has totaled 49.4 points in five games — with 38.45 coming in back-to-back contests in Weeks 4 and 5 filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s only played five offensive snaps and hasn’t attempted a pass since then, though.

Altogether the five first-round rookie QBs and the third-rounder Mills, who’s started nine games for the Houston Texans) have combined to throw 53 TD passes and 61 interceptions while adding nine more combined TDs on the ground.

Rookie numbers to be sure, but certainly not usable outside of two-quarterback leagues.

Running back

Positional MVP: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The second-year Indy back enters Week 17 having scored 47.5 more PPR points than the next best fantasy running back (Austin Ekeler).

Only Henry, who played in eight games prior to a foot fracture, is averaging more fantasy points per contest (23.4) than Taylor’s 23.1.

Taylor, though, leads the league with 1,626 rushing yards, 1,962 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He enters fantasy championship weekend riding a streak of 12 straight games with at least 108 total yards or a touchdown, putting up at least 19.7 fantasy points in 11 of those 12 contests.

And to think there were still lingering doubts about Taylor entering Week 4 as he totaled only 32.1 fantasy points without a TD in his first three 2021 outings.

Fast forward three months, though, and the 22-year-old Taylor has established himself as the near-consensus No. 1 fantasy pick entering 2022.

Surprise standout: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

The list of 2021’s 10 highest-scoring fantasy running backs is comprised mainly of usual suspects and repeat performers, but the RB at No. 8 stands out from the rest.

It’s Patterson, the 30-year-old journeyman who’s been fantasy’s surprise breakout star playing on his fifth team in nine seasons.

His most recent two games (4.3 and 8.3 PPR points) have been two of his three worst of the season, but he has totaled 225.2 fantasy points on the year — an average of 16.1 per outing.

Entering 2021, Patterson hadn’t logged more than 85 touches or 149.7 fantasy points in any of his first eight seasons, but he’s handled a team-high 189 for the Falcons, including 49 receptions for 523 yards (second among RBs) and five TDs as he’s put his WR skills to good use in the backfield on a team that desperately needs offensive playmakers.

As a rusher, he’s shattered his previous career highs with 140 carries for 579 yards and six total TDs, making him the waiver-wire find of the fantasy season.

Disappointment: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

For the second straight season, Run CMC was the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick, and for the second consecutive year, he’s played less than half a season in a campaign wrecked by injuries.

After playing in only three contests a season ago, hamstring and ankle injuries limited McCaffrey to seven games this year before he finally landing on the injured reserve list after Week 12.

When he did play, McCaffrey flashed his elite RB1 skill set, catching 37 total passes and scoring 24.7 or more fantasy points in four of seven games. He averaged 18.2 PPR points per contest, ranking seventh at the position.

But 23 missed games over the last two seasons, unfortunately, will be the most notable number attached to McCaffrey entering drafts next offseason, and it will be interesting to see if he remains a sure-fire first-round fantasy pick.

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Wide receiver

Positional MVP: (Who else but) Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

With 132 receptions for 1,734 yards and 14 TDs on 177 targets, Kupp not only is in line for the rare WR Triple Crown, but with 389.4 PPR points to date, he’s only 24.7 points away from eclipsing Jerry Rice’s single-season WR fantasy record of 414, set in 1995.

Kupp has had at least seven receptions, 92 receiving yards and 16.2 fantasy points in 14 of 15 games, including a current run of 11 straight.

It’s left the fantasy competition in the dust.

Green Bay Packers standout Davante Adams has the second-most WR fantasy points with 302.2, but that trails Kupp by a whopping 87.2 points — basically equal to the point gap between the No. 12 fantasy wideout (Mike Evans) and the No. 46 wideout (Marquez Callaway).

Not bad for a wide receiver with a preseason ADP of 53.65 — 20th at the position.

Kupp is your overall 2021 fantasy MVP.

Surprise standout: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Drafted four or so rounds later than Kupp, on average, was Samuel, who was coming off an injury-addled 2020 sophomore season in which he totaled only 80.7 fantasy points in seven games.

Samuel sped past that total in Week 4 this season and hasn’t slowed down since, totaling 296.8 points so far to trail only Kupp, Adams and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson (297.1).

Samuel has reached elite WR1 territory in unconventional fashion as he ranks 20th in receptions (70) among wide receivers, but has rushed the ball a position-high 44 times for 301 yards and seven TDs — adding to his 1,247 yards and five scores as a pass-catcher.

Disappointment: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Robinson had a fourth-round ADP, 12th among wideouts, this summer as fantasy GMs expected 2020’s ninth-ranked wide receiver to pick up right where he left off.

Instead, Robinson is wrapping up the worst season of his career with all of 32 receptions for 353 yards and one TD on 56 targets, ranking 90th among wide receivers with 73.3 fantasy points.

So what’s happened?

Injuries/COVID-19 have cost Robinson five full games, and inefficiency has dogged him in the 10 contests he has played in in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack. His catch rate has fallen off more than 10 percentage points (57.1 from 67.5) from last season, and his yards per target average has sunk from 8.3 to 6.3.

He’s also been stuck on one TD grab since Week 2, and the majority of fantasy teams who spent a top four-round pick on Robinson have long since cut bait and moved on.

Tight end

Positional MVP: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews has put together one of the most impressive tight end fantasy stretch runs in recent memory with 29 receptions for 376 yards, four TDs and 80.6 fantasy points on 34 targets over the last three weeks, propelling a good number of his fantasy teams into the championship round.

He’s also done it largely with backup QBs Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson at the helm in place of the injured Lamar Jackson.

Andrews’ late-season surge has also boosted him to the top of the season-long fantasy tight end ranks with 265.7 total points — 27.7 more than second-place Travis Kelce.

Andrews, of course, leads the Ravens with 93 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine TDs — all career and 2021 tight end highs — and he’s opened up a serious debate on who should be the top tight end selected in fantasy drafts this coming offseason.

Surprise standouts: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills and Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Knox is tied with Andrews and the New England Patriots’ Hunter Henry for the positional lead with nine TD grabs — the main reason why the third-year Buffalo player ranks seventh among tight ends with 153.8 total fantasy points.

Knox entered 2021 with 52 career receptions for 676 yards and five TDs in 27 games over two seasons, but has 46 catches for 538 yards and the nine scores in 13 contests this season as the Bills’ surprising second-leading pass-catcher.

Schultz also has surprised as the Cowboys’ second-leading receiver with 69 receptions for 733 yards and six TDs on 91 targets. That’s good for 178.3 fantasy points, ranking only behind Andrews, Kelce (238 points) and San Francisco 49ers stud George Kittle (189.5).

That latter threesome all own top-five fantasy tight end ADPs while Shultz and Knox checked in at 35 and 28, respectively.

Disappointment: Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Waller, who had the second-highest tight end ADP this offseason, does rank fifth at the position with an average of 12.9 fantasy points per game, but he’s missed five contests, including the last four as he recovers from a Thanksgiving Day knee injury that originally wasn’t believed to be overly serious.

Perhaps it was just that Waller set the bar too high out of the gate with 26.5 fantasy points on 19 targets in Week 1. He’s topped 15 fantasy points only three times since then, though, and ranks 15th overall at the position with 129.3 total points on the season with still no indication if he’ll be available to tack on any more in the Raiders’ final two games.

Waller hasn’t been a fantasy disaster of the aforementioned Allen Robinson variety, but it’s certainly not the season fantasy GMs envisioned when they used a late second- or early third-round pick on the Vegas tight end.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

Make sure you know which player pitfalls to avoid in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

It’s rare that an otherwise consistently selected player should be entirely avoided in fantasy football drafts, because at the right price, risk is mitigated. However, some recognizable names just don’t warrant inclusion on 16-man rosters. Fantasy football gamers also need to be aware of players who are going much earlier than warranted.

“Bust” is a loaded term that isn’t entirely fair, nor is it an accurate reflection of a player’s risk. Furthermore, it’s tough to find a consensus definition. Can an injury create a bust? Is it only a bust situation if the player goes up in flames without an injury? Both? Are busts only early-round selections? You get the point. Regardless of how one defines it, the term is far from perfect.

This piece highlights some of the more commonly drafted players whose selections may cause headaches. Therefore, we’ll focus on “overvalued” in this space. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, and those dramatic differences will be noted below.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on redraft-only leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft.

2021 fantasy football busts and overvalued players

1) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals  | ADP: 3:05 | Bust factor

In Mixon’s four pro seasons, he has finished a full slate just once. The Bengals present an intriguing situation from a volume perspective, but the lack of durability makes it more or less a wash. Even if he stays healthy, Mixon has a suspect offensive line and an offense system intent on throwing the ball to a trio of formidable wideouts. Mixon has yet to reach double-digit touchdowns in a season, and his yardage cap is less than 1,170 yards on the ground. Don’t get hung up on his name value.

2) QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans | ADP: 7:09 | Bust factor/overvalued

The receiving corps is relying on a breakthrough from tight end Anthony Firkser, which is reasonable, and serious progress from newcomers Josh Reynolds and Dez Fitzpatrick, a rookie. A.J. Brown is a legit WR1, and Derrick Henry helps make play-action passing dangerous, but he is poised for a setback statistically and comes with inflated injury concern. Tannehill is being drafted ahead of Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and a handful of other quarterbacks with better risk-reward ratios. Some services place his ADP in the ninth round, which is too high, as well.

3) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants | ADP: 6:11 | Bust factor

The former Detroit Lion cashed in on one strong season — which wasn’t even last year — and a decent campaign the year before. He suffers a serious drop-off at quarterback by entering an offense led by Daniel Jones, a signal-caller coming off of a drastic regression in his second season. Jones is on thin ice, but who is going to replace him if the third-year passer doesn’t bounce back? Mike Glennon is the current answer, which should be startling. Golladay, with one full season to his credit, comes with more downside than likely reward.

4) TE Evan Engram, New York Giants | ADP: 10:11 | Overvalued

So he finally finished a full season and what did gamers get to show for it? One measly touchdown. Now, the Giants have improved the weaponry around Engram to make him even less of a focus, and the backfield should see a healthy Saquon Barkley’s return to gobble up checkdowns from the arm of a work-in-progress quarterback. While the cost of investment isn’t horrific, the number of better tight end options going later than Engram is nearly 10 players.

5) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 4:12 | Overvalued

Don’t get me wrong, Pitts is the top rookie tight end talent in recent memory. He is physically capable of doing things players at his position shouldn’t be capable of accomplishing. And he gets a huge boost in targets if Julio Jones is indeed out of Atlanta. That said, Pitts is still a rookie at a position that typically takes time to effectively contribute in fantasy. He is currently going as TE4 in redraft leagues conducted after the 2021 NFL Draft. This excludes keeper leagues, so his placement is crazy high. Looking at the past decade of rookie tight ends to finish in the top 25 of PPR point-earners, history isn’t on his side for a monster year. The average stat line: 54 targets, 35 receptions, 401 yards, 3.6 touchdowns, 96.6 PPR points. Evan Engram’s 2017 season was by far the most productive, logging 64-722-6 on 115 looks (173.6 PPR points). The next four best PPR producers: Hunter Henry (131.8 points), Dwayne Allen (115.3), Jordan Reed (114.7) and Noah Fant (113.8). The average of those five: 129.8, which was TE17 last year.

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6) TE Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 9:05 | Overvalued

Historically, tight ends rarely have mattered in a Chan Gailey offense, and now the Dolphins have added a pair of playmaking receivers to interfere with Gesicki’s target count. The Penn State product picked up the pace late last year after a rocky start, but much of his success can be boiled down to three games, one of which came with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. While entering the final year of his deal could add some incentive, Gesicki still is reliant on a so-so quarterback situation in an offense that boasts no silver lining for his odds of a consistently useful campaign.

7) RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8:05 | Bust factor

Between injury history, a pass-happy offense, and two other very capable running backs, Fournette could be a lineup paperweight in 2021. The ADP isn’t so much a problem, so it’s not like he presents an overreach, but there’s so much working against him. Fournette’s saving grace in recent seasons has been his receiving chops. Running back Giovani Bernard will cut into that area of his game, and then there’s the chance of losing short-yardage touchdowns to Ronald Jones, which kneecaps Fournette’s two main ways of contributing. Only two teams (PIT, JAC) ran at a lower percentage of their overall offensive snaps. At this point, Lombardi Lenny is merely roster depth for the occasional spot start.

8) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals | ADP: 5:03 | Overvalued

Some of his placement is still the proximity to the NFL draft and its natural hype effect on rookies. Face it, fantasy owners love themselves the newest shiny toy, and Chase is in that category. He hasn’t played since 2019, which is possibly benign, but it’s, at a minimum, not a plus. The Bengals have two other capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, and Mixon is a respectable receiver out of the backfield. Chase is reunited with Joe Burrow (knee), so there’s that going for him, but he ultimately is a rookie and also has to fight the rust factor. The LSU standout eventually will be a fantasy stud, although there should be some healthy skepticism as to how effective he’ll be as a rookie — especially when the price tag is so lofty at this current time. Chase’s ADP ranges between Rounds 5 and 10 most of the time, which is bonkers. Anything earlier than Round 8 is way too soon in a single-year league.

9) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 5:06 | Overvalued

This one really could go either way, so take it with a grain of salt. The main idea of including Evans here is the wealth of targets around him. Presume Chris Godwin stays healthy all year, and Antonio Brown enters with a potential to play a full season, too. What will that do to Evans’ numbers? He thrived by finding the end zone a career-high 13 times last year. His yardage (1,006) and receptions (70) were the second-lowest marks of his career for each stat. Those dips were with Godwin and AB missing a combined 12 games. Rob Gronkowski also was slow to get rolling. The Bucs added pass-grabbing RB Giovani Bernard, and TE O.J. Howard returns from injury. The primary reason to hold out hope Evans will indeed reach his ADP in relation to production is his scoring prowess. He has, though, scored eight or fewer TDs in four of his seven seasons, so it’s not like Evans is a total lock for finding paydirt a dozen times.

10) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans | ADP: 8:02 | Bust factor

The obvious looming legal concerns have sent his draft stock tumbling, which is no surprise. Watson also wants out of town, further clouding his situation. Timing could very well be on his side, unless the NFL steps in to implement discipline ahead of the 20-plus impending lawsuits being adjudicated. There’s always the chance it all could be settled ahead of time, although it appears it all will be going to court in the fall. Presuming he plays, and for the Texans, Watson will be tasked with carrying the offense in a new system devoid of dynamic receivers, outside of veteran Brandin Cooks. The receiving corps has oft-injured Randall Cobb manning the slot, and veteran Chris Conley was added to compete with Keke Coutee for a top-three spot. Nico Collins comes aboard after being drafted in Round 3, and his 6-foot-5 frame presents a target in the red zone. Will Fuller’s defection leaves a glaring hole in this passing game: a consistent deep threat. Houston added running backs Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to work in alongside David Johnson, suggesting an increased emphasis on the ground game.