Tag: 2021 fantasy football breakouts

Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 17

Reflecting on 2021 fantasy breakouts, disappointments and more.

As we enter championship weekend in the majority of leagues, it’s time to take look back and analyze the fantasy year that was.

It was a season that saw Derrick Henry start strong — and division-rival Jonathan Taylor finish strong — as they ruled the running back ranks.

It was a season with an intriguing mix of fresh — and very familiar — faces populating the top 10 of fantasy quarterback rankings.

And it was a season where Cooper Kupp dominated the fantasy wide receiver field in record-setting fashion en route to the probable first wide receiver Triple Crown campaign (league leader in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns) since Steve Smith in 2005.

On the flip side, we had the usual allotment of brutal injuries, fantasy duds, and disappointments — not to mention an untimely rash of late-season COVID cases — which has derailed an untold number of well-laid draft plans and league championship runs.

It’s impossible to encapsulate all that went into fantasy 2021 — with a championship-round chapter yet to come — but we are looking at each of the four main fantasy positions this week and selecting a positional MVP, a surprise, and a disappointment for the season to date. All statistics and positional rankings are complete through play in Week 16.

Here we go, kicking things off as usual with our selections at …

Quarterback

Positional MVP: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brady likely won’t end up as the year’s highest-scoring fantasy QB, and his rushing numbers (28 carries-81 yards-2 touchdowns) are woefully behind the times in this era of highly coveted, dual-threat QBs who routinely tack on an extra 8-to-10 fantasy points to their weekly scores via their legs.

But Brady was pacing the league with 4,580 passing yards and 37 TD passes through Week 16 and ranked third with 397.10 fantasy points and an average of 26.5 points per game (Huddle Performance scoring) — all while leading the defending champion Bucs to an 11-4 record and their first NFC South title since 2007.

Oh, and you might have heard that Brady is doing so at the age of 44 — older than more than a third (12) of the league’s 32 head coaches.

Surprise standout: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

This second-year QB had his rookie year cut short (10 games total) by a devastating multi-ligament knee injury and was the 13th quarterback selected, on average, in fantasy drafts this past summer.

But on the wings of his semifinal-deciding 43.35-point outing Sunday in which he shredded the Baltimore Ravens for a franchise single-game-record 525 yards and four TD tosses, he ranks sixth at the position with 351.05 total fantasy points and 4,165 yards.

Burrow also is tied for seventh with 30 passing scores — while adding two more on the ground — and has teamed with three top-30 fantasy wide receivers to form one of the league’s most formidable aerial attacks.

Disappointment: The 2021 rookie class

Five quarterbacks were selected in the upper half of the first round of the NFL draft last spring, and over the summer, three of those QBs (No. 15 Trevor Lawrence, No. 18 Justin Fields and No. 19 Trey Lance) were selected among the top 20, on average, in fantasy drafts.

But the New England Patriots’ Mac Jones (20th with 248.95 points) is the only rookie QB currently in the top 20 in total fantasy points, but even he ranks 30th with an average of 16.6 fantasy points per game among QBs who have played in at least five contests.

Lawrence, meanwhile, is 22nd at the position with 239.35 total fantasy points and is followed by fellow rookies Fields (29th with 175.5 points), Zach Wilson (30th with 168.75) and Davis Mills (31st with 160.8).

Lance has totaled 49.4 points in five games — with 38.45 coming in back-to-back contests in Weeks 4 and 5 filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s only played five offensive snaps and hasn’t attempted a pass since then, though.

Altogether the five first-round rookie QBs and the third-rounder Mills, who’s started nine games for the Houston Texans) have combined to throw 53 TD passes and 61 interceptions while adding nine more combined TDs on the ground.

Rookie numbers to be sure, but certainly not usable outside of two-quarterback leagues.

Running back

Positional MVP: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The second-year Indy back enters Week 17 having scored 47.5 more PPR points than the next best fantasy running back (Austin Ekeler).

Only Henry, who played in eight games prior to a foot fracture, is averaging more fantasy points per contest (23.4) than Taylor’s 23.1.

Taylor, though, leads the league with 1,626 rushing yards, 1,962 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns. He enters fantasy championship weekend riding a streak of 12 straight games with at least 108 total yards or a touchdown, putting up at least 19.7 fantasy points in 11 of those 12 contests.

And to think there were still lingering doubts about Taylor entering Week 4 as he totaled only 32.1 fantasy points without a TD in his first three 2021 outings.

Fast forward three months, though, and the 22-year-old Taylor has established himself as the near-consensus No. 1 fantasy pick entering 2022.

Surprise standout: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

The list of 2021’s 10 highest-scoring fantasy running backs is comprised mainly of usual suspects and repeat performers, but the RB at No. 8 stands out from the rest.

It’s Patterson, the 30-year-old journeyman who’s been fantasy’s surprise breakout star playing on his fifth team in nine seasons.

His most recent two games (4.3 and 8.3 PPR points) have been two of his three worst of the season, but he has totaled 225.2 fantasy points on the year — an average of 16.1 per outing.

Entering 2021, Patterson hadn’t logged more than 85 touches or 149.7 fantasy points in any of his first eight seasons, but he’s handled a team-high 189 for the Falcons, including 49 receptions for 523 yards (second among RBs) and five TDs as he’s put his WR skills to good use in the backfield on a team that desperately needs offensive playmakers.

As a rusher, he’s shattered his previous career highs with 140 carries for 579 yards and six total TDs, making him the waiver-wire find of the fantasy season.

Disappointment: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

For the second straight season, Run CMC was the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick, and for the second consecutive year, he’s played less than half a season in a campaign wrecked by injuries.

After playing in only three contests a season ago, hamstring and ankle injuries limited McCaffrey to seven games this year before he finally landing on the injured reserve list after Week 12.

When he did play, McCaffrey flashed his elite RB1 skill set, catching 37 total passes and scoring 24.7 or more fantasy points in four of seven games. He averaged 18.2 PPR points per contest, ranking seventh at the position.

But 23 missed games over the last two seasons, unfortunately, will be the most notable number attached to McCaffrey entering drafts next offseason, and it will be interesting to see if he remains a sure-fire first-round fantasy pick.

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Wide receiver

Positional MVP: (Who else but) Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

With 132 receptions for 1,734 yards and 14 TDs on 177 targets, Kupp not only is in line for the rare WR Triple Crown, but with 389.4 PPR points to date, he’s only 24.7 points away from eclipsing Jerry Rice’s single-season WR fantasy record of 414, set in 1995.

Kupp has had at least seven receptions, 92 receiving yards and 16.2 fantasy points in 14 of 15 games, including a current run of 11 straight.

It’s left the fantasy competition in the dust.

Green Bay Packers standout Davante Adams has the second-most WR fantasy points with 302.2, but that trails Kupp by a whopping 87.2 points — basically equal to the point gap between the No. 12 fantasy wideout (Mike Evans) and the No. 46 wideout (Marquez Callaway).

Not bad for a wide receiver with a preseason ADP of 53.65 — 20th at the position.

Kupp is your overall 2021 fantasy MVP.

Surprise standout: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers

Drafted four or so rounds later than Kupp, on average, was Samuel, who was coming off an injury-addled 2020 sophomore season in which he totaled only 80.7 fantasy points in seven games.

Samuel sped past that total in Week 4 this season and hasn’t slowed down since, totaling 296.8 points so far to trail only Kupp, Adams and the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson (297.1).

Samuel has reached elite WR1 territory in unconventional fashion as he ranks 20th in receptions (70) among wide receivers, but has rushed the ball a position-high 44 times for 301 yards and seven TDs — adding to his 1,247 yards and five scores as a pass-catcher.

Disappointment: Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Robinson had a fourth-round ADP, 12th among wideouts, this summer as fantasy GMs expected 2020’s ninth-ranked wide receiver to pick up right where he left off.

Instead, Robinson is wrapping up the worst season of his career with all of 32 receptions for 353 yards and one TD on 56 targets, ranking 90th among wide receivers with 73.3 fantasy points.

So what’s happened?

Injuries/COVID-19 have cost Robinson five full games, and inefficiency has dogged him in the 10 contests he has played in in the Bears’ low-volume passing attack. His catch rate has fallen off more than 10 percentage points (57.1 from 67.5) from last season, and his yards per target average has sunk from 8.3 to 6.3.

He’s also been stuck on one TD grab since Week 2, and the majority of fantasy teams who spent a top four-round pick on Robinson have long since cut bait and moved on.

Tight end

Positional MVP: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews has put together one of the most impressive tight end fantasy stretch runs in recent memory with 29 receptions for 376 yards, four TDs and 80.6 fantasy points on 34 targets over the last three weeks, propelling a good number of his fantasy teams into the championship round.

He’s also done it largely with backup QBs Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson at the helm in place of the injured Lamar Jackson.

Andrews’ late-season surge has also boosted him to the top of the season-long fantasy tight end ranks with 265.7 total points — 27.7 more than second-place Travis Kelce.

Andrews, of course, leads the Ravens with 93 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine TDs — all career and 2021 tight end highs — and he’s opened up a serious debate on who should be the top tight end selected in fantasy drafts this coming offseason.

Surprise standouts: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills and Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Knox is tied with Andrews and the New England Patriots’ Hunter Henry for the positional lead with nine TD grabs — the main reason why the third-year Buffalo player ranks seventh among tight ends with 153.8 total fantasy points.

Knox entered 2021 with 52 career receptions for 676 yards and five TDs in 27 games over two seasons, but has 46 catches for 538 yards and the nine scores in 13 contests this season as the Bills’ surprising second-leading pass-catcher.

Schultz also has surprised as the Cowboys’ second-leading receiver with 69 receptions for 733 yards and six TDs on 91 targets. That’s good for 178.3 fantasy points, ranking only behind Andrews, Kelce (238 points) and San Francisco 49ers stud George Kittle (189.5).

That latter threesome all own top-five fantasy tight end ADPs while Shultz and Knox checked in at 35 and 28, respectively.

Disappointment: Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Waller, who had the second-highest tight end ADP this offseason, does rank fifth at the position with an average of 12.9 fantasy points per game, but he’s missed five contests, including the last four as he recovers from a Thanksgiving Day knee injury that originally wasn’t believed to be overly serious.

Perhaps it was just that Waller set the bar too high out of the gate with 26.5 fantasy points on 19 targets in Week 1. He’s topped 15 fantasy points only three times since then, though, and ranks 15th overall at the position with 129.3 total points on the season with still no indication if he’ll be available to tack on any more in the Raiders’ final two games.

Waller hasn’t been a fantasy disaster of the aforementioned Allen Robinson variety, but it’s certainly not the season fantasy GMs envisioned when they used a late second- or early third-round pick on the Vegas tight end.

Fantasy football’s top breakout candidates for 2021

Several second-year players are on the cusp of something special.

Updated: Sunday, Aug. 14, 2021, at 8:15 p.m. EDT

Several of these players could cross over into the realm of being fantasy football sleepers. For the most part, each name has somewhat established himself as an up-and-coming fantasy football commodity. They’re now on the verge of going big.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on drafts from Aug. 12-14.

2021 fantasy football breakout candidates

WR Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Prized No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence should be in a great position to succeed out of the gates, and the Jaguars have surrounded him with weapons. One such asset is the versatility of a second-year talent in Shenault. He can line up all over the field and is dangerous in traffic. He will see ample single coverage with DJ Chark Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. keeping defenders occupied. Chark is quickly becoming no stranger to the injury bug after missing four games with different ailments and already nursing a surgically repaired broken finger. Shenault’s skills in space lend to creative play calls and easy pitches from his rookie quarterback.

The offensive line is respectable, and the backfield is among the most promising in the game. Jacksonville’s defense, on the other hand, is problematic and shall provide fantasy owners a voluminous passing offense by force of circumstance.

If all of those aspects aren’t alluring enough, Shenault offers the occasional bonus play as a rusher. The draft addition of RB Travis Etienne suggests we won’t see Shenault match his 2020 positional fourth-most 18 carries, but even half of that figure is still worth noting. The Colorado standout closed out 2020 with his three best efforts over the final five contests, displaying an increased understanding of the game and setting the tone for more gains in Year 2.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

“ACL, schmACL” … the injury just isn’t that daunting of a recovery for a quarterback, especially a young one who wasn’t particularly mobile to begin with. Sure, Burrow can move around and escape when needed, but we’re not talking about Michael Vick here. A torn MCL is even less concerning. Don’t take my word for it … Burrow has been on the field throwing as early as May. That wouldn’t have happened if the medical team was in the slightest bit concerned over his recovery.

The Bengals — in theory — upgraded the offensive line with the addition of right tackle Riley Reiff and expected developmental gains from former first-rounder Jonah Williams at left tackle. Venerated LSU Tigers receiver Ja’Marr Chase was a top-five pick and is reunited with Burrow, creating one of the most dynamic top-three receiver corps in the game. Provided Joe Mixon can return to full strength after an injury-marred season of his own, the backfield should be no worse than competent.

Burrow was well ahead of the rookie learning curve in his first pro season, and a monster leap in production is right at his fingertips, especially if his team’s defense continues to struggle. And he’s going at a bargain price, too.

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WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

The NFL is a “produce now” entity for young players, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see several second-year names on this list. Mostly gone are the days of receivers practically requiring three or four years to break out. While it is easy to see how the Niners’ quarterback situation may turn off gamers, poor QB play has still resulted in strong showings from wideouts many times. For now, the presumption should be that Jimmy Garoppolo starts as long as he is healthy. While that’s a crapshoot based on his history, the front office is perfectly content with No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance learning for a year before getting his shot. Even if we see Lance as the starter this season, he was the third selection for a reason, and he’ll need to throw the ball to compete in today’s NFL.

There are other mouths to feed, including George Kittle at tight end and Deebo Samuel as a fellow receiver with the chops to succeed, but Aiyuk’s versatility is worth noting. The 2020 first-rounder was explosive in his limited rushing attempts, averaging 12.8 yards and finding the end zone twice. He snagged 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns from a hodgepodge of mostly ineffective quarterbacks.

Don’t expect a significant jump in targets (96) or receptions from last year if Kittle and Samuel stay healthy. It won’t matter, given Aiyuk’s vertical skills that were far from being on full display in 2020. He should increase his yards-per-reception average and has a legit shot at threatening double-digit aerial scores via mismatches and play-calling creativity near the end zone.

RB Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

Do you really trust James Conner? He is behind Edmonds in terms of knowing the offensive system after the latter has spent two years picking up its nuances. Conner has struggled with injuries in his career and recently underwent offseason surgery to repair an off-field injury compared to turf toe. Toe injuries can be tricky to overcome.

The third year for Edmonds saw a dramatic spike in his role as a receiver (53 catches on 67 targets) after combining for 32 grabs in his first 29 games. Is A.J. Green the answer? How about Christian Kirk’s inconsistent play, or Rondale Moore making a dent as a rookie? In many ways, Edmonds is the safest Arizona skill guy not named DeAndre Hopkins.

Although the backfield also gets a huge boost with center Rodney Hudson’s acquisition, there’s a reasonable concern Edmonds will lose meaningful work around the stripe. But should Conner fail to produce or get hurt yet again, this backfield has no one of consequence to threaten Edmonds for the starting workload.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

8/14 update: Swift continues to miss practice with a mild groin strain. He still has breakout potential but should be watched with a closer eye over the next few weeks. The longer he remains out, the less optimistic gamers should be about his early-season contributions.

A finish of running back No. 18 in PPR scoring last year suggests he may have already broken out in the eyes of some folks, but there is so much more potential growth to be had from Swift in 2021. He played only 13 games last year as a rookie in an unconventional offseason. Sharing carries with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson resulted in only 114 attempts as he was being slowly brought along by the former coaching staff after early-season mixed play.

Swift will benefit from new head coach Dan Campbell’s commitment to pounding the rock and also the aligned philosophy from incoming offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. The former Los Angeles Chargers head coach has a history of throwing extensively to his backs, and this team will need the former Georgia star to step up his game after the upheaval at wide receiver in the offseason.

Jared Goff replaces Matthew Stafford, which is an obvious step backward at the quarterback position. It will cut both ways, in terms of defensive scrutiny paid to the backfield, but Swift is in line to see something close to 100 targets this year. RB Jamaal Williams comes over from Green Bay and will share touches with the dual-threat back, which helps keep the explosive Swift healthy and efficient. Toss in the upgraded offensive line as a major factor, and Detroit could present an elite fantasy offering from its blossoming young talent.

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NEW — WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

There is obvious trepidation based on the undefined quarterback situation, but the second-year receiver gained valuable experience last year with a team-high 113 targets and has a fine opportunity ahead. He should be granted the benefit of the doubt after numerous dropped passes, and Jeudy has a strong chance to excel, regardless of the starting QB. Last year, in Carolina, Teddy Bridgewater made weekly starters out of both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. If Drew Lock wins the gig, it probably helps Jeudy even more, given the glaring arm talent separation between the two passers.

Denver is in a win-now mindset, and it’s hard to see the coaching staff wasting time on Lock if they feel he isn’t ready to ascend his game. Either way, the point is, a player of Jeudy’s natural talent shouldn’t see much of a drop-off in production from a gunslinger to a game manager, especially if WR Courtland Sutton (knee) is able to draw double coverage with regularity. An exceptional route-runner, Jeudy (7th-round ADP) has low-end WR2 potential written all over him.

NEW — WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills

Largely unheralded and overshadowed by Stefon Diggs’ monster 2020 season, Davis scored seven times as a rookie deep threat. The Bills parted ways with WR John Brown in the offseason (52 targets in nine games), and Cole Beasley’s offseason has been … let’s just say rocky. Will he be distracted? On the roster in a few months? Does he stay healthy? While he and Davis play basically opposite roles, no Beasley would open serious targets. Buffalo doesn’t have much in the way of a true third-down back, nor does the offense have a tight end who will steal a ton of looks each week. Davis has a real chance to be the No. 2 target behind Diggs, and if something happens to the former Viking injury-wise, no one on the roster but Davis more closely resembles a WR1. He has more breakout potential and isn’t necessarily a lock, but there is plenty to like for a 14th-round ADP.