The top 70 golfers in the season-long FedEx Cup standings following Tony Finau‘s win at The Northern Trust move on to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland for the BMW Championship. Finau moved to No. 1 in the standings with his first win in more than five years. Below, we look at the 2021 BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Caves Valley Golf Club is a new venue for the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Tom Fazio design measures 7,542 yards and plays to a par of 72. Jon Rahm, who remains atop the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, won this event last year but at Olympia Fields Country Club.
The top 30 in the standings after this week will advance to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club for the playoff finale. Some big names beginning this week outside of the top 30 include Kevin Kisner (31), Keegan Bradley (32), Sergio Garcia (44), Webb Simpson (52), Paul Casey (54) and Phil Mickelson (70).
2021 BMW Championship picks – Favorite
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:40 p.m. ET.
Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
DeChambeau was the first two-time winner on the 2020-21 PGA Tour season but he has no victories and just three top-10 finishes in his last 13 events. He’s coming off a lackluster T-31 finish last week and enters the second-to-last event of the season ninth in the FedEx Cup standings.
Despite his recent (relative) struggles, and media silence, DeChambeau still leads all qualified golfers and players in this field with 1.14 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee per round. The length and wide landing areas of Caves Valley are well-suited to his game and he recently tied for eighth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational while gaining 0.85 strokes per round with the putter.
2021 BMW Championship picks – Contender
Sam Burns (+5000)
Burns broke out in early May with his first career PGA Tour win at the Valspar Championship and followed it up with a runner-up finish two weeks later at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He returned to the front page of the leaderboard at the WGC-Invitational event with a T-2 finish before tying for 21st last week.
He comes into the BMW Championship 12th in the season-long standings but shares just the 24th-best odds to win. He’s averaging 0.67 SG: Approach and 0.52 SG: Putting for the season on top of 0.27 SG: Off-the-Tee per round.
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2021 BMW Championship picks – Long shot
Sergio Garcia (+9000)
The 41-year-old former Masters champ has struggled with the putter all season and missed the cut last week but Caves Valley sets up as a strong course fit. He trails only DeChambeau and Rahm among qualified golfers in SG: Off-the-Tee.
He should also be highly motivated this week while in need of a strong finish in order to advance to the Tour Championship. He begins the week at No. 44 in the season-long standings with his only win of the 2020-21 campaign coming at the Sanderson Farms Championship last fall.
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