Kevin Stefanski one of most aggressive coaches in going for it on 4th down

The Browns went for it on 4th down a lot more aggressively than most other teams

One area where Kevin Stefanski stood out in his rookie season as the Cleveland Browns head coach came in an area where many fans wouldn’t expect it. Stefanski, known for a more conservative style of offense, was unusually aggressive on fourth downs.

Granted it’s just one season, but Stefanski showed his willingness to push the envelope on fourth down much further than most of his coaching peers in 2020. That’s the findings of a study from Football Outsiders, which gauged the relative aggression on fourth downs. Stefanski came in third amongst full-time coaches in 2020.

Focus on the “AI” column in the chart here,

The numbers here can be confusing, so here are the Football Outsiders criteria for judgment,

Aggressiveness Index numbers center around 1.0 and generally describe how much more (or less) likely each coach is to go for it on fourth down compared to his peers; for example, a coach with 1.20 AI is roughly 20 percent more likely to go for it than an average coach historically would in equivalent situations. There are other methodologies now for measuring fourth-down aggressiveness, mostly based on win probability analysis.

In terms of raw data, the Browns went for it on fourth down 23 times in 2020. They were successful on eight of those attempts, though that is not sorted through the criteria filter used by Football Outsiders here. Only 14 of those attempts qualified.

It will be interesting to see if Stefanski keeps up the more aggressive play-calling on fourth down. The move towards analytics across the NFL generally agrees that teams should go for it on fourth down far more often than they actually do.

Over/Under: Projecting Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s stats

Projecting Dak Prescott’s 2020 passing statistics and how they match up with the over/under betting odds.

Looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, it’s time to start breaking down how individual players will do statistically. Below, we focus on Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott‘s projected passing numbers and how they match up against future odds at BetMGM sportsbook.

Dak Prescott’s stats history

For the first three years of his career, Prescott was a fairly low-volume passer. While his efficiency was always above average, he never put up big yardage or touchdown totals. From 2016-2018, Prescott averaged 3,625 yards per season along with 22.3 passing touchdowns.

Prescott had a breakout 2019 season with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The Cowboys opened up their passing attack and Prescott threw for a career-high 4,902 yards with 30 passing touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The secret to Prescott’s improvement was a more vertical passing game featuring wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup stretching the field.


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Dak Prescott’s projected stats and odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Thursday, April 23 at 9 am ET.

Passing Yards: 4,299.5  / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

Passing Touchdowns: 26.5 / OVER: -110 / UNDER: -110

The Over/Under on passing yards for Prescott is set at 4,299.5, which would be the second-highest total of his career. With Mike McCarthy now the team’s head coach, the Cowboys are expected to be more pass-happy than ever.

If Prescott can continue to average around eight yards per attempt, the Over looks like a pretty safe bet. This also requires Prescott to average around 270 passing yards per game, which doesn’t feel too hard given all of the weapons around him. Take the OVER (-110) on passing yards for Prescott in 2020.

As for passing touchdowns, that’s where things get a little thicker. Prescott set a career-high in touchdowns at 30 last season, but the team was often behind in games and that forced him to be more aggressive in the red zone. Dallas also has one of the best goal-line runners in the NFL in Ezekiel Elliott and they will be sure to give him his touches as well. It’s also important to remember Prescott is a dangerous runner in his own right, as he has scored 21 rushing touchdowns in his career.

Expect Prescott to come close to the 26.5 passing touchdown total in 2020, but for the UNDER (-110) to ultimately hit.

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