The 2020 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a wild one. We know the Bengals will take Joe Burrow first-overall, but after that? It’s anyone’s guess. Will Tua slide? How many receivers will go in the first round? Will there be an early run on offensive tackles? What are the Patriots going to do to address the quarterback situation?
Nobody knows what’s going to happen, but I can guarantee one thing: There will be some busts drafted in the first round. It happens every year and it’s going to happen (several times) in 2020. Let’s try to identify the potential first-round busts in this year’s class…
1. Justin Herbert/Jordan Love, QB Oregon/Utah State
We’re kicking things off with a two-for. Watch some of their tape, and you’ll quickly understand why I’m putting Herbert and Jordan Love together here. Whichever teams draft these guys will be making a similar bet: That their physical tools will carry them early on while they play catch-up on the more mental aspects of playing quarterback.
For Herbert, the problem is processing time. He’s what the football guys like to call a “see it passer,” meaning he needs to see and confirm that a receiver has already gotten open before letting go of a pass. There is almost no anticipation in his game. Why is that an issue? Well, in the NFL, the defenders are so darn good and the windows close so fast, by the time a QB sees a receiver is open and goes through his throwing motion that guy is no longer open. That’s why you hear analysts talking about “anticipation” and “throwing a guy open” when discussing the best quarterbacks in the league. It’s a feel thing, and at this point in his development, Herbert does not have that feel. You don’t want to bet a first-round pick that it will ever come to him.
Love can also be a “see it” thrower, but his biggest issue is decision making. Maybe that will improve as he gets more experience, but some of the decisions he makes are inexplicable. Even Jameis Winston would question those throws. Maybe the pressure of being THE GUY at Utah State got to Love and he tried to force things … but that pressure isn’t going to go away if he’s a first-round quarterback.
2. Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State
If you watch a highlight reel, you might think Aiyuk is one of the very best receivers in the class. He’s a burner who can do serious damage with the ball in his hands. At the NFL level, getting the ball in his hands will the issue. The Arizona State star gets bullied at the line of scrimmage by more physical corners, which will obviously be a problem at the next level, where all of the corners play physically at the line of scrimmage. Physicality also gives Aiyuk problems down the field. If there is any amount of contact, his route is thrown off course. If that happens frequently, it’ll be hard for Aiyuk to earn the trust of an NFL quarterback. That’s not what you’re looking for in a first-round receiver.
3. A.J. Terrell, CB Clemson
Outside of running really fast, there isn’t a whole lot that A.J. Terrell excels at that leads me to believe he’ll be a productive NFL cornerback. The Clemson product does not change directions well, and if he gets beat early in the route, it’s tough for him to recover. When he’s gone up against NFL-level receivers — the national championship is a good example — Terrell hasn’t just lost … the results have been somewhat embarrassing. There are no Woffords or even North Carolinas on an NFL schedule. Every week, you’re playing LSU. I don’t know if Terrell will even survive that gauntlet, and if a team is taking you in the first round, they’re expecting you to do more than survive.
4. Isaiah Wilson, OT Georgia
It’s easy to see why Wilson has started to garner some first-round buzz later in the draft process. The dude is massive and he’s built like a rock. As his combine workout proved, he’s an explosive athlete to boot. Combine size and explosive athleticism, and NFL scouts are immediately on board. But what about actually playing football? Well, even on the college level, Wilson was just a middling pass protector and run blocker. If he’s just an average blocker playing on Saturday, it’s not looking good for his chances on Sundays. Some team will convince itself it can take all of that physical ability and mold it into a great player, but you don’t take those risks on Day 1.
5. Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
The great athlete/mediocre football player theme continues with Murray. When Murray has a good idea of what’s happening in front of him, he looks like a stud. It’s figuring out what’s actually going in front him that gives him problems. Murray is athletic and has sideline-to-sideline speed, so he’ll be pegged as a coverage linebacker, but I don’t know if he’s earned that title. He does not have a good feel for playing zone coverage and he’s not going to stick with the best tight ends in man-to-man. Murray is more of a hunt and chase linebacker. That’s fine for a second-round pick, but not a first-round linebacker. It’s easy to envision Murray becoming a solid starter, but teams will want more if they’re using a Day 1 pick on him.
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